Official NBA Lottery Thread
Alright with the one of the most disappoinitng season coming to a close soon Knick fans have two major events comming up; one the firing (we assume) of Isiah Thomas as head coach, two is what will our lottery position be. Being that there is no way to get into Walsh's mind on the Isiah's job status; I decided to focus on the more logical event.
Damn That 3 game win streak!: The Knicks have put themselves in position to not being able to win a single game in the risk of them slipping to even lower in the lottery (we are only a half game worst than LAC). Currently we are 5th with an 8.8% chance of "winning the lottery". Had we not "won" those three games we would be tied for third with a 15.5 % chance at winning.
Lottery odds: Ok like I said 8.8% to win it all! We have a 9.7% chance to get the number 2 pick, and 10.7% chance at number 3. Here's where it gets tricky. If we stay at the fifth worst record in the league, we have no chance at the number 4 pick at all! (More on that in a second) We have a 26% chance at number 5, and our most likely percent chance is number 6 at 35%. We have a 8.7% chance at 7, which is just as likely as us getting the #1. and less than one percent at number 8, and no chance to finish any lower. So basically the win streak took us from a team who's worst case scenerio was the 6th pick, to a team that is likely to end up with the sixth pick. Damn this team can't even lose good!
How it works (sorta): There are way to many mathmatical equations for me to bore you with, but essentaily every one has a shot at the top 3 picks, ofcousre as we all know the likelyhood is based off of a teams record. But the 12,13,and 14th teams in the lottery can finish with a top three pick, but no other pick in between. So it is all or nothing for these teams. It's either they get 1,2,3, or they finish were there record would put them in lottery seedings, beacuse after the first three picks are established the rest of lottery order is deterimined by teams records. Hence why the Knicks at number 5 could not get the number four pick. If the top three teams get the top 3 picks, the #4 team assumes the forth pick, and the Knicks get the 5th. I know a little confusing, but I am trying to put it into the simplest of terms.
The Knicks best bet is to drop there remaining two games, Boston will beat us even with subs, and assuming Indy is still fighting for the playoffs, should beat us. And with Memphis facing Minnesota today, that could give the Grizz a better record. Now in the event we finish tied with Memphis the average chance of winning the lottery 11.9 and 8.8 is averaged and that is the teams likelyhood of winning the lottery.
Lets Go Grizz and Clippers! And Again DAMN THAT Three GAME WIN STREAK!