Rumors: NBA will likely lose 2011-2012 NBA season

[MeloforMayor]

NBA Players Association executive director Billy Hunter said Wednesday that if he "had to bet on it," he would wager that the entire 2011-12 season would be wiped out by the lockout. "We're $800 million apart per year," Hunter told about 200 people during a seminar at a conference in Baltimore of the National Bar Association, an organization of predominantly African-American lawyers and judges.

The union chief said NBA commissioner David Stern was being limited in negotiations by hard-line owners.

"The circumstances have changed among his constituency," said Hunter, the executive director since 1996. "In the last six or seven years, there is a new group of owners to come in who paid a premium for their franchises, and what they're doing is kind of holding his feet to the fire."

via Jeff Barker of The Baltimore Sun

[Oldtimer]

Let us assume that the 2011/12 season is lost, an assumption that is apparently not at all outlandish. Then what happens? Everyone seems to expect that after the loss of one season, each side will be more reasonable. Perhaps, but I think the owners are banking on the players' willingness to make the substantial concessions.

It seems absurd to throw away a year and only then get serious. The owners and the players are playing chicken with each other. Is either side seriously willing to jettison two or more seasons?

If the players are willing to lose a year, what about a second year? Same thing for the owners. What is going to change next year besides the attitude of the fans?

The players have shorter windows for making money than the owners, but not having games does not eliminate an owner's debt service or the likely diminution of the asset value of the franchise.

The major sticking point at this time appears to be the percentage split of the basketball related income pie. It had been 57% for the players and 43% for the owners. What about a split with the greater of a guaranteed $2 billion or a 50-50, or other, split of basketball related income for the players with a continuing increased percentage for the players as the basketball related income passes a certain number. This would assure that the players would not lose out entirely if five years from now some extraordinary television deal is brokered.

[Sprewell-Houston]

Let us assume that the 2011/12 season is lost, an assumption that is apparently not at all outlandish. Then what happens? Everyone seems to expect that after the loss of one season, each side will be more reasonable. Perhaps, but I think the owners are banking on the players' willingness to make the substantial concessions.

It seems absurd to throw away a year and only then get serious. The owners and the players are playing chicken with each other. Is either side seriously willing to jettison two or more seasons?



If the players are willing to lose a year, what about a second year? Same thing for the owners. What is going to change next year besides the attitude of the fans?

The players have shorter windows for making money than the owners, but not having games does not eliminate an owner's debt service or the likely diminution of the asset value of the franchise.

The major sticking point at this time appears to be the percentage split of the basketball related income pie. It had been 57% for the players and 43% for the owners. What about a split with the greater of a guaranteed $2 billion or a 50-50, or other, split of basketball related income for the players with a continuing increased percentage for the players as the basketball related income passes a certain number. This would assure that the players would not lose out entirely if five years from now some extraordinary television deal is brokered.

Might be a retarded question, but: The players still get paid during the lockout? Or is their salary frozen until the league resumes?

If they still get paid, be prepaired for the longest lockout in the history of sports. Guys like Kobe, Melo, Durant etc. will enjoy their time in China, Europe - while still getting their NBA paycheque every month.

[NYallDay]

not a 100% on this but i believe they basically forfeit the season from their contract as well as the salary. so in other words, they dont get paid and they lose a year off their contracts.

Might be a retarded question, but: The players still get paid during the lockout? Or is their salary frozen until the league resumes?

If they still get paid, be prepaired for the longest lockout in the history of sports. Guys like Kobe, Melo, Durant etc. will enjoy their time in China, Europe - while still getting their NBA paycheque every month.

[tiger0330]

Of course they don't get paid, that's why Hunter counciled the players before the lockout that they should be saving their money. I read Stern himself won't be paid during the lockout.

Another reason it may be a long lockout is there are other places for the players to ball like China and Europe, it's not NBA money but it's decent money.

[knickscity]

They don't get paid, and their contracts are based from the dates signed.

Wouldn't be a real lockout if those factors were not in place.

[Sprewell-Houston]

Thanks for the answer folks!

That's pretty bad for guys like Fields, Douglas, Walker etc. then. They're not $ 100 million guys, don't even feature in commercials.

They're not struggling, cause 500K that Fields made last years is pretty ok to live from 2-3 years, but after that he needs to get a permanent job at Modell's

[Marek]

The owners obviously don't want to devalue their NBA assets. But it's not their livelihood. They make money in other businesses and will keep up their lifestyles. The reason they would be willing to forfeit an entire season is because they are truly losing money. The system is out of control, they can't control spending and salaries, small markets are not surviving, and the players are pretty much running the front offices. Enough, apparently, is enough.

Most players don't have side income or endorsement deals. They might have to pick up cheap jobs: a local endorsement here, a b-ball camp appearance there, etc. They can't possibly survive as long as the owners can.

The question is this: is the failing NBA model the players' fault? If not, is it fair to take from the players in order to feed the weaker franchises? I don't have the answer. But I do suspect that that is the easiest outcome, and the players will not have the solidarity or fortitude to holdout longer than the owners.

[Oldtimer]

Marek's points are well taken. I believe the owners -- at least enough of them to bind them all -- are prepared to lose a season but with the expectation that the players will thereafter quickly fold and make major concessions that will last the next ten years.

I do not know the details, but I assume the owners' current demands are rather outrageous, though I find it hard to believe that they want an $800,000,000 a year deduction in players' compensation. But the players have hardly budged. I feel the players should make some significant movement in their demands. I have little doubt that they can get a better deal this year than they will next year. If a year is lost, everbody loses -- particularly the fans.

Of course,it is likely that what I am preaching is precisely why the owners are hard balling. Perhaps the principal question is whether the owners are truly willing to lose a full year. I think they are.

[iJoe]

The ONLY ones that lose out are the fans.

How about both sides take less money, charge a bit less for those ridiculous ticket costs and spend more money on creating jobs and improving the NBA experience? I'm sure that's something the public can get behind and grow the fans base instead of 2 sides fighting over millions.

Course, that would never happen, but one can daydream.

[htr10]

The ONLY ones that lose out are the fans.

How about both sides take less money, charge a bit less for those ridiculous ticket costs and spend more money on creating jobs and improving the NBA experience? I'm sure that's something the public can get behind and grow the fans base instead of 2 sides fighting over millions.

Course, that would never happen, but one can daydream.

Those sound like the demands that would be included in a fan's strike of the NBA

[toNYknicks]

An organized fan strike on the NBA doesnt sound like a bad idea!!! we of course put all the money in their pockets we would have major levrage

[DaTPRiNCE]

Might be a retarded question, but: The players still get paid during the lockout? Or is their salary frozen until the league resumes?

If they still get paid, be prepaired for the longest lockout in the history of sports. Guys like Kobe, Melo, Durant etc. will enjoy their time in China, Europe - while still getting their NBA paycheque every month.

basically to answer your question all contracts and salaries are frozen until the league resumes so pretty much melo and stat will have 4 years remaining on their contracts everything is untouched until it resumes

[knickscity]

I do not know the details, but I assume the owners' current demands are rather outrageous, though I find it hard to believe that they want an $800,000,000 a year deduction in players' compensation. But the players have hardly budged. I feel the players should make some significant movement in their demands. I have little doubt that they can get a better deal this year than they will next year. If a year is lost, everbody loses -- particularly the fans.

Of course,it is likely that what I am preaching is precisely why the owners are hard balling. Perhaps the principal question is whether the owners are truly willing to lose a full year. I think they are.

That is exactly what the owners want, at least most of them do.

To make it even more telling is the owners want the players to take a 40% pay cut, per year.

The above figure is around 36%.

And to answer your question....yes the owners are prepared to lose a full season.

[petescud]

I think its sad that these guys make this crazy money and during a recession to boot, and have the audacity to pull this crap...missing a season. They all should be ashamed of themselves