I think there is a gap in Oldtimer's calculation and that is how this lockout affects the BRI. If I remember correctly, every single month of games missing means loss of approximately $800M. Imagine that there are no games until Christmas, which is almost two months of the RS taken out and about $1,6B loss. If the union gets the 53/47 split, the players would miss almost $850M of their money. But if there is no deal until late January, which is also possible, they would miss a bit more than $1,27B, which is more than extra $1,2B they would earn in 10 years if they got that extra 3% they're fighting for.