View Poll Results: What to do with Lin?

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  • Let him walk

    16 28.57%
  • Resign him and keep him long term

    27 48.21%
  • Resign him and trade him January 2013 with Amare

    13 23.21%
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Thread: Jeremy Lin

  1. #1081
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    Default Short MSG stocks on Monday's open

    Not financial advice, but there's going to be some nice change to be made shorting MSG stocks on Monday and hold through the 2012-2013 season.

  2. #1082
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    Raymond Felton is not a solid outside shooter. In what universe is 41.2 FG% considered good?

    Felton is a chucker, plain and simple. He had an amazing month in December of 2010 where his shot was falling and he looked like an all-star, but why did he miss the all-star nomination? Because his play quickly tailed off after that amazing month he had where Amar'e scored 30 PPG like 10 games in a row.

    And according to Synergy, he was a worse defender than Lin was last year, in terms of points given up per possession.

    It's not just that Felton had a down year, it's HOW he had a down year. I have serious questions about his maturity level and his dedication to winning if he shows up to any team's training camp 40 pounds overweight.

  3. #1083
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    You can take this information for what it is worth I still think Lin is gone but the Trailblazers GM was on NBA TV saying this is the first he has heard of this deal and he has not approved it as of yet. Heard about the deal over dinner actually.So for what it worth the deal goes through tomorrow to be continued.......

  4. #1084
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    Originally Posted by SSj4Wingzero
    Raymond Felton is not a solid outside shooter. In what universe is 41.2 FG% considered good?

    Felton is a chucker, plain and simple. He had an amazing month in December of 2010 where his shot was falling and he looked like an all-star, but why did he miss the all-star nomination? Because his play quickly tailed off after that amazing month he had where Amar'e scored 30 PPG like 10 games in a row.

    And according to Synergy, he was a worse defender than Lin was last year, in terms of points given up per possession.

    It's not just that Felton had a down year, it's HOW he had a down year. I have serious questions about his maturity level and his dedication to winning if he shows up to any team's training camp 40 pounds overweight.
    He certainly deserves the skepticism.

    But pressure makes diamonds, and Ray embraced the pressure of NYC's new era in 2010-2011.

    If he doesn't deliver, he'll reap what he's sewn. I think I'll reserve being too critical of a bad season for Raymond until the next season commences. Your concern is definitely founded though, SSj.

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    Knicks have until Tuesday 11:59pm to match.

    If the stock were to move, it would happen on Wednesday, not Monday.

    Originally Posted by LINvincible
    Not financial advice, but there's going to be some nice change to be made shorting MSG stocks on Monday and hold through the 2012-2013 season.

  6. #1086
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    Stocks don't move based on certainties...they move based on even the slightest possibility of bad news.

    If the world is convinced that J-Lin isn't coming back to NY, the stock will DROP tomorrow.

  7. #1087
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    Ok, but I don't think the world is convinced of anything. His return may have become more uncertain due to Felton's signing, but no one knows for sure what happens until Tuesday night. We are all speculating. You might as well go to Vegas and bet Red or Black on roulette.

    Originally Posted by SSj4Wingzero
    Stocks don't move based on certainties...they move based on even the slightest possibility of bad news.

    If the world is convinced that J-Lin isn't coming back to NY, the stock will DROP tomorrow.

  8. #1088
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    Originally Posted by LINvincible
    Folks,
    There's no WAY to put this then PURE UTTER screw up.
    Let's go back and piece together the chains of events.

    1) It has been reported the Knicks wanted LIN to test the market to see what he is worth out there.
    2) Lin and his agent got a offer sheet from Houston for 5,5,9,10 (year 4) for 4 years.
    3) The Knicks went out and got Jason Kidd for (3,3,3).
    4) The Knicks waited and waited..and waited and waited and waited. It was rumored Bumsfield avoided that offer sheet from Houston like a plague.
    5) July 11th came and went. The Knicks threw out a rumor out there they would sign ANY offers made UP TO 1 BILLION dollars.
    6) Lin and Houston reworked the offer sheet to (5,5,14 (ouch!)).
    7) Knicks traded for Felton and signed this fatA@@ to 3,3,3.

    If you look at the chain of events, there's NO ONE ELSE TO BLAME BUT DOLAN and his cronies. The Knicks could have EASILY wrapped this up, but they choose not too. Instead they allow HOUSTON who understands the value and marketing power of a star Chinese player is worth to come in and steal the show.

    Job will done Houston.

    1. "It has been reported" You can take that with a grain of salt. It was reported that Kidd had agreed in principle to a deal with the Mavericks. Why isn't he a Maverick then?

    2. Which is a pretty decent deal.

    3. One of the biggest reasons we got Kidd was to MENTOR LIN. To teach him how shift gears in game; you can't play the game in overdrive every single time.

    4. There's also a rumor that Houston took forever to give Grunfield that offer. And once again, it's a rumor.

    5. The Knicks didn't release that statement. Mark Berman did. Berman works for the NY Post, not the Knicks organization.

    6. You know why? Cause Houston is DESPERATE. Look at their offseason. They Let Goran Dragic go, and they had no choice to trade a disgruntled Kyle Lowry away. They wanted to trade for Dwight Howard. They wanted to give up EVERYTHING for Howard. It was known that they were trying to stockpile assets for Howard even though Howard may not resign there. Why would they do that? They've been so successful drafting sleepers and being wise and suddenly they're throwing that away for one player and a bunch of bad contracts. They want Howard and would most likely have to take back a combination of Duhon/Richardson/Turkoglu in return for their assets in Chandler Parsons, future draft picks, and their current draft picks in Royce White, Jeremy Lamb, and Terrence Jones. It's not like they're getting Melo and they already have Amare; they are giving up EVERYTHING and will be left with NOTHING. Honestly I do hope they make that trade just to see Dwight walk; this offseason they've proven their management is nothing short of awful.

    Originally Posted by LINvincible
    Follow up to some of the discussions.

    1) Kidd and Felton will make the Knicks better. These guys were added for the price of 6,6,6 for the next 3 years. Kidd shot 36% FG last year and starting the season at 39 years old! Felton is one FATTEST pg in the league. They guy has bounced around from team to team to team to team...if he's ANY GOOD..you think these teams will let him walk? The GUY IS A BUM. PERIOD!

    2) Is 25 million a lot? Is Lin worth that much?
    BEFORE YOU GO ON WITH THIS NONSENSE.

    Click on this chart.
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    Take a GUESS what the price of MSG was before the game the Knicks play the NETS which started the whole Linsanity. MSG was trading at 22-24 dollars. Since LinSanity started....MSG have rallied 17 dollars! That's a 1.1 BILLION IN market value. Read that again. 1.1 BILLION! Now, throw in the TIME WARNER deal that was resolved because of Linsanity. The record merchandise sold. The NEW DEALS in Asia, the 30% season ticket price raise. There was SO much money bleeding out of Dolan's a@@. And all of this could simply be the TIP of the iceberg. Imagine if he keeps on getting better and better?

    O
    M
    G
    !
    !
    !
    Jason Kidd's value goes beyond the numbers. He's a mentor, and he shoots an efficient 3. Like I said, he was going to mentor Lin whom you fanboy over, from looking at your name and join date. He was originally intended to make your boy BETTER.

    Have you ever watched Raymond Felton play before last season?
    Bounced around from team to team? Really?

    He was unhappy in Charlotte, which is ironic because his last year there was his most efficient. He came here and played his ass off. He was traded for Melo because we were getting Chauncey Billups back.

    He was shipped to Portland because he didn't want to be a backup and Ty Lawson was better than him, I don't think anyone has a problem admitting that. He came into Portland with no motivation to play, as I mentioned here:

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    And here:

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    Often times a player gets scolded because there's something weird about them, this was outlined in Moneyball, which may be a baseball movie but its point applies here. Raymond Felton wasn't bad because he was a "fata@@", he was bad because he was out of shape. Just because you're "fat" doesn't mean your out of shape. It's not an objective term. He was not motivated, but he will be. Kidd, Woodson, and Melo won't take that crap.

    Portland is also letting Felton walk because they are rebuilding. Why would they need him? Come up with a better argument besides "he's a journeyman, he's fat, he's a bum."

    And for the record, I'm not happy to see Lin go either. I just think your aforementioned arguments are flawed and you're overlooking a lot of things.

  9. #1089
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    Originally Posted by SSj4Wingzero
    Raymond Felton is not a solid outside shooter. In what universe is 41.2 FG% considered good?

    Felton is a chucker, plain and simple. He had an amazing month in December of 2010 where his shot was falling and he looked like an all-star, but why did he miss the all-star nomination? Because his play quickly tailed off after that amazing month he had where Amar'e scored 30 PPG like 10 games in a row.

    And according to Synergy, he was a worse defender than Lin was last year, in terms of points given up per possession.

    It's not just that Felton had a down year, it's HOW he had a down year. I have serious questions about his maturity level and his dedication to winning if he shows up to any team's training camp 40 pounds overweight.
    Felton is not a bad shooter and didn't just have one little hot month like you make it seem. Plus he continued his solid play in Denver that same season to finish the year upping his 3pt% to 45% while sharing the back court. Guys we call great shooters now a days barely shoot 45% from the field.

    He isn't great nor poor but was solid in recent seasons like I said.

    He came into the league shooting just under 40% and upped his percentage the yr before we got him to 45% with the Bobcats and shot around 43% in between his time with us and Denver which is on par with most viable guards in the league. Not spectacular but not putrid either.

    and can we really with a 25 game stretch say LIn is much better for that matter? Did his production as well not start to tally off? I think both came as a direct result from Antoni doing what he is known to do and even did to Duhon who had a nice little run while he was here, and that's run players into the ground with his short rotations. No surprise all 3 of those pgs started off hot under him then started to look burnt out. Note worthy is all were pgs who were not at the time use to logging heavy mins. Lin just got thrusted into a starting role, Duhon was a career backup and and Felton also started to share pg duties in CHA while playing in more slow downed offense.

    You use 1 out of shape year during a lockout season to determine he's a worse defender then Lin but overlook the fact he played well his last yr on D for the Bobcats and drew some praise for it. Even here in NYK he was and most people said he did a good job on defense and was better then we had even anticipated.

    If you want to argue Lin is better and going to produce numbers backing up he's almost 5 mill a yr better for that matter that's fine go ahead but please be fair in your assertions. I like Lin too and think he has a bright future but I refuse to become too vested in any player to the point my judgement is clouded. I'm not happy to see Lin go as well but I'm also not happy when my team is put in a compromising position.

    I agree the guy as a professional had no business showing up in the manner he did. but if I'm going off his career both collegiate and 7 yrs in, it's hard for me to now categorize him as a lazy unmotivated individual when i saw far more from him that outweighs this past seasons.

    No PUN!!
    Last edited by goldenchild1688; Jul 15, 2012 at 23:59.

  10. #1090
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    Originally Posted by goldenchild1688
    Felton is not a bad shooter and didn't just have one little hot month like you make it seem. Plus he continued his solid play in Denver that same season to finish the year upping his 3pt% to 45% while sharing the back court. Guys we call great shooters now a days barely shoot 45% from the field.

    He isn't great nor poor but was solid in recent seasons like I said.

    He came into the league shooting just under 40% and upped his percentage the yr before we got him to 45% with the Bobcats and shot around 43% in between his time with us and Denver which is on par with most viable guards in the league. Not spectacular but not putrid either.

    and can we really with a 25 game stretch say LIn is much better for that matter? Did his production as well not start to tally off? I think both came as a direct result from Antoni doing what he is known to do and even did to Duhon who had a nice little run while he was here, and that's run players into the ground with his short rotations. No surprise all 3 of those pgs started off hot under him then started to look burnt out. Note worthy is all were pgs who were not at the time use to logging heavy mins. Lin just got thrusted into a starting role, Duhon was a career backup and and Felton also started to share pg duties in CHA while playing in more slow downed offense.

    You use 1 out of shape year during a lockout season to determine he's a worse defender then Lin but overlook the fact he played well his last yr on D for the Bobcats and drew some praise for it. Even here in NYK he was and most people said he did a good job on defense and was better then we had even anticipated.

    If you want to argue Lin is better and going to produce numbers backing up he's almost 5 mill a yr better for that matter that's fine go ahead but please be fair in your assertions. I like Lin too and think he has a bright future but I refuse to become too vested in any player to the point my judgement is clouded. I'm not happy to see Lin go as well but I'm also not happy when my team is put in a compromising position.

    I agree the guy as a professional had no business showing up in the manner he did. but if I'm going off his career both collegiate and 7 yrs in, it's hard for me to now categorize him as a lazy unmotivated individual when i saw far more from him that outweighs this past seasons.

    No PUN!!
    excellent post golden chile, i especially like bringing up Antoni's sh*te coaching leading to downfall of all 3 PG's.
    TRUE as f*ck!

    good pun too.

  11. #1091
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    Originally Posted by goldenchild1688
    Felton is not a bad shooter and didn't just have one little hot month like you make it seem. Plus he continued his solid play in Denver that same season to finish the year upping his 3pt% to 45% while sharing the back court. Guys we call great shooters now a days barely shoot 45% from the field.

    He isn't great nor poor but was solid in recent seasons like I said.

    He came into the league shooting just under 40% and upped his percentage the yr before we got him to 45% with the Bobcats and shot around 43% in between his time with us and Denver which is on par with most viable guards in the league. Not spectacular but not putrid either.

    and can we really with a 25 game stretch say LIn is much better for that matter? Did his production as well not start to tally off? I think both came as a direct result from Antoni doing what he is known to do and even did to Duhon who had a nice little run while he was here, and that's run players into the ground with his short rotations. No surprise all 3 of those pgs started off hot under him then started to look burnt out. Note worthy is all were pgs who were not at the time use to logging heavy mins. Lin just got thrusted into a starting role, Duhon was a career backup and and Felton also started to share pg duties in CHA while playing in more slow downed offense.

    You use 1 out of shape year during a lockout season to determine he's a worse defender then Lin but overlook the fact he played well his last yr on D for the Bobcats and drew some praise for it. Even here in NYK he was and most people said he did a good job on defense and was better then we had even anticipated.

    If you want to argue Lin is better and going to produce numbers backing up he's almost 5 mill a yr better for that matter that's fine go ahead but please be fair in your assertions. I like Lin too and think he has a bright future but I refuse to become too vested in any player to the point my judgement is clouded. I'm not happy to see Lin go as well but I'm also not happy when my team is put in a compromising position.

    I agree the guy as a professional had no business showing up in the manner he did. but if I'm going off his career both collegiate and 7 yrs in, it's hard for me to now categorize him as a lazy unmotivated individual when i saw far more from him that outweighs this past seasons.

    No PUN!!
    Damn...this was great +1 rep!

  12. #1092
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    thanks guys I like everyone here just want what's best for the team

    either way whatever happens I'm going to support whoever is here next yr and hope for the best.

  13. #1093
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    thanks for starting this thread LINvincible dude! i'd like to point out the following articles from Feb 2012, during the height of Linsanity, and June 2012, at the tail end of the season. Jeremy Lin, for the Knicks, indeed means a billion dollars to the Knicks organization, which is why insiders originally said the Knicks would match up to 1 billion, in their tongue-in-a$$-cheek way. the proof is in the wall street pudding:

    -------------------------------------------
    What Jeremy Lin means for MSG stock
    SportsWatch
    Rising popularity and victory totals should bring increased revenue
    February 16, 2012|Sam Mamudi, MarketWatch
    ShareEmailPrint
    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — “Linsanity” isn’t solely on the basketball court, where Jeremy Lin has orchestrated a seven-game New York Knicks win streak — it’s on Wall Street, too.

    Buoyed by Lin’s heroics, investors have been snapping up shares of Madison Square Garden Co. (US:MSG), which owns the Knicks. The company’s stock is near its all-time high, having peaked Monday at $33.18 each. Shares are up about 10% since Lin began playing heavy minutes for the Knicks on Feb. 4.

    It’s not as if MSG was struggling before Lin came along — from the beginning of the year till Feb. 3, it had risen 13% while the S&P 500 Index was up 2.6% in the same period. MSG shares have three analyst buy ratings and three hold ratings, according to FactSet Research, and the company topped consensus estimates with its latest quarterly earnings, announced last week.

    And even before Lin, the Knicks were an incredibly successful franchise commercially and one of the richest in the National Basketball Association. The club’s average attendance this season is right at Madison Square Garden’s 19,763 capacity.


    But that doesn’t mean Lin — and a winning Knicks team — can’t boost the fortunes of a company with more than $1 billion in annual revenue.

    “There are real gains to having the Knicks actually win,” said Brett Harriss, an analyst at Gabelli & Co. who covers MSG.

    Two big areas where success will mean noticeably more dollars: postseason games and increased audiences for the MSG Network.

    The Knicks, with one of the worst backcourts in the league, were struggling early in the lockout-delayed season with an 8-15 record and apparently out of the playoff picture before Lin took over at the point. The team is now 15-15, eighth best in the Eastern Conference, just one game behind the seventh-place Boston Celtics and 2 ˝ games ahead of the chasing Milwaukee Bucks.

    Harriss estimated that ticket sales alone for home playoff games could bring in $3.5 million apieace for the Knicks. On top of that, of course, would be merchandise and concession sales.

    In the meantime, regular-season success means more television viewers — MSG says ratings for Knicks games on its MSG Network are up about 70% this year. That will help drive up the channel’s advertising revenue, said Harriss.

    It should also help ramp up affiliate fees. MSG Network has the second broadest in-market reach — 4.1 million homes — of any regional sports network, according to SNL Kagan, which estimates MSG is paid an average of $2.63 for each of its 7.7 million total subscribers."

    --------------------------------------------------------

    Jeremy Lin, China, And The Nike Stock
    June 1, 2012 | 2 comments | about: NKE, includes: MSG

    On, February 4, 2012, Jeremy Lin, unknown, debuted as a starter for the New York Knicks. At the end of regulation, Lin came through with 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists in leading his team to victory against the New Jersey Nets. After one week, as the Knicks starting point guard, Lin had slapped together 27 / 5 / 8 in points, rebounds, and assists per game averages. Linsanity ensued amid a seven-game win streak in then basketball-starved New York City. Amid the Renaissance, details of Lin's vagabond life story emerged to capture the mystique of the Horatio Alger American Dream.

    Today's American Dream, of course, is heavily weighted towards crossover marketability, international profits, and the China growth story. In the name of capitalism, Jeremy Lin, and Nike (NKE) were made for each other. Jeremy Lin will unite his stellar play and 'aw-shucks' charisma alongside Nike's otherworldly design team and marketing machine in Holy Matrimony. To fully appreciate the Jeremy Lin effect, we must first break down his no-look assists to Madison Square Garden (MSG) stock, before next comparing him to Yao Ming and Kobe Bryant, two other Nike pitchmen who have made lucrative inroads into China.

    Jeremy Lin and Madison Square Garden Stock

    In February 2012, amid the height of Linsanity, Madison Square Garden shares quickly gapped up from $29 to $33. This run continued until the month of May, when an injured Lin watched his Knicks get dominated and ousted in the NBA Playoffs by Miami Heat. At that point, the MSG advance stalled out at $38 per share. Because of Jeremy Lin's play on the court, Knicks Basketball was the hottest ticket in town. The hysteria translated into increased ticket and merchandise sales, which eventually trickled down into Madison Square Garden's bottom line and improved shareholder returns.

    In its latest quarterly report, Madison Square Garden reported $31 million in Q1 2012 net income, which is a 63-percent increase over the 2011 year-over-year quarter. For MSG, Q1 ends on March 31, which would include the beginnings of Lin's meteoric rise. Broken down further, MSG reported $25 million worth of Q1 2012 operating income from its Sports Division, compared to $129,000 in the year-over-year period.

    Jeremy Lin made $762,195 in 2011 base salary from the Knicks. For MSG shareholders, it was money well spent. At the moment, Lin now stands on the cusp of NBA contract negotiations, as a restricted free agent. I am certain that Knicks brass will pay top-dollar to retain this star for the New York market. Nike executives, of course, watched Lin's ascendancy with baited breath, as multiple sources report that the burgeoning star has already been signed to a multimillion-dollar shoe and endorsement deal.

    China and NBA Basketball

    With a population of more than 1.3 billion people, alongside its rapid industrialization, China is the world's most viable frontier for finished, consumer goods and services. Alternatively, China is increasingly receptive to Western capital, as means to legitimizing both its market reforms and authoritarian regime. Both the NBA and Nike eye the Chinese market lustily, as a long-term driver for net income growth. For all parties to meet their respective ends, it is critical that a transcendental superstar emerges to facilitate the role of Ambassador. With a Nike contract and starting role in tow, it is likely that Lin, Chinese-American, will assume the International Ambassador baton from Yao Ming, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James.

    Yao Ming and Kobe Bryant, especially, are wildly popular in China. Ming, from Shanghai, starred as the number one overall 2002 pick of the Houston Rockets, before his 2011 retirement. According to the Wall Street Journal, Kobe Bryant is a leading man in China, due to his five championship rings and multiple tours of the country. Kobe Bryant, in fact, has overtaken Yao Ming as Nike's top merchandiser, in terms of jersey and shoe sales in China.

    Bryant, 33, cannot carry out his rejuvenation act against Father Time forever. At 23, serendipity would have it that yet again, Jeremy Lin is perfectly positioned to take advantage of another window of opportunity.

    The Bottom Line

    According to Sports One Source, Nike controls roughly 90 percent of the basketball shoe market, as it is the corporation most associated with Michael Jordan and all-around cool. Behind such dominance, Nike has performed as a story stock since the early 80s. In 2009, shares bottomed out at $40, before advancing towards $110 as of May 2012. With such impressive brand recognition, Nike's lease on Jeremy Lin's star appeal and liaison into China is effectively a cheap call option baked into the stock.

    For fiscal 2011 ending May 31 last year, Nike posted $2.1 billion in net income, on 20-percent average annual growth over the past two years. In its latest quarterly report for period ending February 29, 2012, Nike is still operating at 10-15 percent year-over-year earnings per share growth. Broken down geographically, China represents Nike's largest growth engine. By all measures, Nike's profits attributable to China are improving by at least 25 percent each year.

    In 2011, Nike earned $777 million in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) from China, out of a total $2,848 in EBIT. With Jeremy Lin and his shoes leading the way, I expect China to generate at least $1 billion in EBIT for fiscal 2013 and surpass North America as Nike's largest regional division by 2020. With a 25-percent foreign tax rate, Chinese sales would add at least $750 million to Nike's bottom line. By these estimates, Nike may post $2.5 billion in 2013 net income, or $5.25 in basic earnings per share. At 20 times forward earnings, Nike would have fair value at $110 per share.

    Nike is a solid, long-term holding.

    Disclosure: I am long NKE.
    -------------------------------

    bottom line: Knicks MUST match, or lose a lot more than the price of luxury tax for 1 f*cking season. James Colon would lose his shirt, or at least a billion of them. do you really think his ego will get in the way of giving up his golden egg? i don't.
    x 100 billion

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    Originally Posted by LINvincible
    That bum Carmelo couldn't close out the Time Warner deal.
    Before Linsanity, MSG stock traded at 22. It's now at 37. Amost 1 billion added.
    Reported there was record merchandise sold in in MSG last year during Linsanity. Name me another 1st round pick that did this.
    New deals sign in Asia to broadcast MSG in chinese networks.

    You are comparing apples to oranges. Name me what other players can produce all of the above in the NBA?
    youre arguing why you want lin from a marketing standpoint (as if you're part of the organization) and not his play that should garner this money

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    Originally Posted by SSj4Wingzero
    And according to Synergy, he was a worse defender than Lin was last year, in terms of points given up per possession.
    The question for a PG is not whether he's a worse defender than Lin, for most PGs are worse defenders than Lin. (One of the biggest myths in the NBA is that Lin is a "poor defensive player". He's in the top third for all players defensively, not just point guards.) The question is how much worse.........

    The only thing I will say is if the Rockets' offer is not matched, my days posting on this forum are numbered...... I'm here primarily because of Lin..... I will be disappointed he won't get a chance to really turn around the "Media Capital" franchise. For with Kidd and Felton, and an injured Iman Shumpert, the upcoming season for the Knicks could really get ugly.

    The only positive about Lin going to the Rockets is I'll be able to attend more games in Phx to see him play ...........

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