View Poll Results: What to do with Lin?

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  • Let him walk

    16 28.57%
  • Resign him and keep him long term

    27 48.21%
  • Resign him and trade him January 2013 with Amare

    13 23.21%
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Thread: Jeremy Lin

  1. #1171
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    So, let's make these clear.

    We are not loosing cap flexibility (we will have none in any case).
    We are not loosing money (not that I care about fat **** Dolan, but he'd actually make money)
    We are not ruining the roster (we keeping an, at least, capable, productive player)
    We might actually be adding a valuable asset (see [Only registered and activated users can see links. ])

    So what were the reasons not to re-sign Jeremy Lin again?

  2. #1172
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    deathstroker, you have to be the worst thread starter ever on KO, however I like your thinking re Dolan.

    here's a scenario I can live with: Dolan refuses to sign Lin, because he feels dissed that Lin signed second poison pill offer, and doesn't want to pay luxury tax... MSG stock drops to the tune of 500 million dollars, MSG stockholders go into an uproar and force Dolan to resign (not re-sign!). Knicks lose Lin, Knicks lose Dolan... a fair tradeoff?



    stroke it!

  3. #1173
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    Originally Posted by NYNYK
    There's definitely something going on and I don't think it's related to basketball or finance. Dolan has been known to put personal issues in front of business decisions before.

    From the financial numbers already mentioned it makes sense to keep Lin. That luxury tax is chump change. Lin jerseys, T-shirts, and other merchandise will sell like hotcakes no matter where he goes. The Luxury tax would matter if we were a small market team (Hornets, Bobcats, etc.) and we were losing $$$. But we're one of the richest franchises in sports. We make money even when we suck! So why worry about luxury tax?

    And we can trade Lin even before we hit that 3rd year even if he turns out to be a mediocre NBA player. Regardless of how much you believe race is a factor, Lin is a money making machine. Any number of small market teams, (Hornets, Bobcats, Timberwolves, Raptors) would love to have him. Most of those franchises are losing attendance right now and Lin would be a great play for them.

    So it's not a financial issue. Even from a team standpoint, we have Felton and Kidd. If Lin turns out to be a one hit wonder, fine, bench him. Then trade him before that "ridiculous" 3rd year. I don't think his games with us were a fluke but even if they were we still have an out. Someone will take him.

    So, the numbers don't lie. It's not even a bad decision in terms of team play. We fought so hard to get Bird Rights for him. Why let him go?
    64 million is currently committed to 5 players in 14-15, you need 12 players for a roster, so assume 7 players making 1 million each, that takes you to 71 million, add Lin's 14 million, that takes you to 85 million worst case scenario. Assuming a Lux Tax threshold of 70 million, Knicks would be 15 million over the threshold. Now the multiplier would be, given that the Knicks would be considered a Repeat Offender, you multiply the 15 million by $4.25, lux tax penalty would be over 63 million dollars.

  4. #1174
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    It is ironic that the unexpected victory with respect to Bird rights has perhaps cost us Lin. If we did not have Bird rights, we could not match what other teams may have offered Lin and what other teams may have offered Lin would not have been backloaded and probably far more reasonable. The Knicks would have known that they could always be outbid. If Lin really wanted to stay in New York, his decisionmaking would have depended simply on what the Knicks would have offered and how many dollars he was willing to give up if he received better offers elsewhere.

    I doubt Lin wants to leave New York, but . . .

    There have been all sorts of suggested costs to the Knicks if they were to match the Houston offer. The Knicks front-office, to be sure, has crunched the numbers. The guaranteeed payroll going forward and in that third year includes Melo, Chandler, Amare, Camby, Kidd, probably Shump and whoever we draft next year. Apparently it will also include Felton, but for the life of me I cannot understand why the Knicks would commit to a third year for Felton if it is likely to cause luxury tax increases.

    Although the Knicks do not know precisely what the cap will be going forward since it is a function of the prior year's BRI, they can do their projections. I have been unable to find a copy of the new CBA, but apparently the luxury tax payments become steeper as teams remain over the cap in successive years. Suffice it to say, the Knicks probably have a pretty good idea how much Lin would actually cost in that third year. Apparently the tax can be as high as $3.50 for each $1.00 over the cap if the luxury tax threshold is passed for three successive years.

    It could be very expensive to match the Houston offer. If the Knicks do not match, however, they get nothing for Lin. If they do match, they can trade him sometime after mid-season and well before that third yeaar kicks in. Houston has a lot of assets. They seem to want him.

  5. #1175
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    Originally Posted by Seba
    So, let's make these clear.

    We are not loosing cap flexibility (we will have none in any case).
    We are not loosing money (not that I care about fat **** Dolan, but he'd actually make money)
    We are not ruining the roster (we keeping an, at least, capable, productive player)
    We might actually be adding a valuable asset (see [Only registered and activated users can see links. ])

    So what were the reasons not to re-sign Jeremy Lin again?
    GREAT FIND SHEBA!

    so great, in fact, the entire article deserves re-posting, wallah!

    Keeping Lin Should Make Financial Sense for the Knicks
    By NATE SILVER
    In February, during the height of the Linsanity phenomenon, I attended a game at Madison Square Garden between the Knicks and the Sacramento Kings.

    The tickets cost an arm and a leg. But Jeremy Lin and the Knicks did not disappoint. Lin had just 10 points in 26 minutes of play, but many of his 13 assists were spectacular, a series of flawless alley-oops that sent Tyson Chandler and Landry Fields dunking on the Kings like the guys from Sacramento were the Washington Generals, the Harlem Globetrotters’ perpetually hapless opponents.

    What was more remarkable was the action that took place off the court. This was only Lin’s sixth game as the Knicks’ starting point guard — and just his third start at Madison Square Garden. But the concourses were filled with fans in Lin jerseys. And the high-priced seats were full of people carrying well-intentioned (although sometimes racially insensitive) signs in tribute to him.

    The Knicks seemed to be doing everything in their power to encourage the trend. At the team stores around the arena, a wall of Lin bling dominated the displays, while gear for the Knicks’ other high-priced stars — Chandler, Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony — was consigned to the sale racks. (Lin jerseys eventually outsold those of all other Knicks — and all other players in the N.B.A. except Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls.) After every Lin bucket or assist, the Knicks public address announcer Michael T. Walczewski paused for emphasis before reciting his name, before the stadium burst into manic applause.

    Lin, in other words, was getting the superstar treatment from the Knicks and their fans. Here, after all, was one of the more remarkable sports stories in a generation. In a sport which is not usually forgiving to underdogs, an undrafted point guard out of Harvard was lighting up cash registers and scoreboards, and turning even the most jaded New Yorkers into die-hard fans.

    It didn’t hurt that Lin was Taiwanese-American — in a city where there are about 450,000 residents of Chinese or Taiwanese descent. There are more Chinese-Americans in New York than the entire populations of several N.B.A. cities like Miami, Atlanta or Cleveland (about 400,000 each).

    To think of the marketing potential in China itself, which has been starved for an N.B.A. superstar since the gradual demise and eventual retirement of the former Houston Rockets star, Yao Ming.

    Investors were quick to recognize the marketing bonanza. The market capitalization for the Knicks’ publicly traded parent company, The Madison Square Garden Company, added about $250 million in value in February alone, and has gained roughly $600 million overall since Lin’s first start.

    But now that it comes time for the Knicks to actually pay Lin like a superstar, they seem to be balking. Reports in The New York Times and elsewhere suggest that they might not match the offer sheet that Lin signed with the Rockets, which would pay him $25.1 million over three years.

    From a pure basketball standpoint, the merits of the deal are uncertain. Lin’s average salary under the contract — about $8.3 million per year — is concomitant with a good (although not necessarily great) level of performance over a sustained basis.

    Using a statistic called estimated wins added, developed by ESPN’s John Hollinger, I charted the performance of the N.B.A.’s top 40 point guards over the past five seasons. Mr. Hollinger’s statistic (as its name implies) estimates the number of additional wins that a player is worth to his team, above a marginal-level player that could be picked up for the minimum salary.

    Then I converted this number from wins into dollars based on the salaries of all N.B.A. players. On average, N.B.A. teams are paying about $1.63 million per win, which means that a player good enough to produce 10 extra wins for his team is worth about $16.3 million.


    If Lin plays like a top-10 point guard, he’d be well worth the contract, even without the marketing bonus. A top-10 point guard is worth about 12 wins per season, according to Mr. Hollinger’s numbers, which is equivalent to about $20 million in market value.

    That’s higher than the N.B.A. maximum salary, and for a good reason: true superstars in the N.B.A. are worth quite a bit more than what teams are allowed to pay them. Players like LeBron James might easily earn offers that topped out at $50 million per season in a true free market — and they’d deserve it based on how much value they add to their clubs.

    A point guard ranking between 11th and 20th in the league — a solid starter, but not an All-Star or superstar talent — is worth about $10 million per year, according to these numbers. By that measure, Lin would still earn his contract, based on his on-court contributions alone.

    However, the deal would be a poor one if he ranked in the bottom third of N.B.A. starting point guards — and a worse one if he were no better than a talented reserve off the bench.

    Where Lin will fall along this spectrum is anybody’s guess. His prolonged hot streak in February and March was indicative of superstar talent. But this must be weighed against the decline in his performance later in the year, when he was closer to a league-average player — and perhaps the fact that, until his breakout in February, he was somebody whom nobody had bothered to draft or wanted to keep on their roster.

    Then again, Lin was just 23 years old last season. By all accounts — not just the stereotype of an Asian-American from Harvard — he is a quick learner and wants to devote himself to patching the weak spots in his game.

    Sports franchises often fear uncertainty, or they perceive it wrongly. During the past decade or two, under the tenure of their owner James L. Dolan, the Knicks have frequently paid top dollar for brand-name players who seem to have proven their worth. Yet, these veteran players have often struggled with age and injury, their contracts becoming white elephants. What seems like a risk-averse strategy really isn’t — it’s just that all the risk is to the downside.

    To be sure, there are also risks with Lin. If he proves to be no more than a marginal player — or if he gets hurt — then those jerseys will stop selling. Few T.V. sets in New York’s Chinatown or Flushing — let alone in Taipei or Shanghai — would be tuned in to see him come off the bench.

    Moreover, because of the N.B.A.’s punitive luxury tax provision, the deal is a lot more expensive to Mr. Dolan than it seems on the surface. Under the league’s rules, the Knicks might face roughly an additional $20 million in luxury taxes on top of Lin’s salary.

    It is not quite clear that Lin’s contract alone should be thought of as responsible for this — the bloated contracts given to players like Stoudemire also contribute to the Knicks’ tax burden. Nevertheless, the marginal cost of bringing Lin back might be more like $45 million over three years, or $15 million per season.

    But the upside is just too much to pass up. If Lin does perform like a top-10 point guard, he’ll be worth his salary based on his on-court contributions alone.

    Even if Lin is a merely good player, the marketing boost he provides should more than justify the expense. Lin is already a superstar based on his jersey sales, and the level of fan interest that he generates. The number of Google searches for Lin’s name over the past six months exceeds that of LeBron James — and is about four times as many as those for Anthony, Stoudemire and Chandler combined.

    This is a case, moreover, where it makes sense for the Knicks to pursue a high-risk strategy. As presently constructed — without Lin on the roster — they appear to be about a 50-win team. That would usually correlate with a fifth or sixth seed in the Eastern Conference, and an exit within the first two rounds of the playoffs. The N.B.A., unlike the N.H.L. or Major League Baseball, is a league in which skill tends to prevail. Merely being good, and then hoping to get lucky in the postseason, just does not work very often.

    And the Knicks would have to share the spotlight. Their new crosstown neighbors, the Brooklyn Nets, also look to have about a 50-win roster — but the Nets are a younger team with fresher branding that might start to steal their headlines and ticket sales.

    If Lin is a flop, and the Knicks win 45 games a year with him as their point guard, it wouldn’t make much difference. They’d still probably make the playoffs, and still probably lose in the first round. They’d still have to compete with the Nets both on the court and off it.

    But if Lin plays even 80 percent as well as he did in February, the Knicks could have a 55- or even 60-win roster. Winning a championship would still be a feat, with dominant teams like the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder in the league. But the Knicks would be on track to be a No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. They would also host many home playoff games and would have a puncher’s chance of bringing home their first N.B.A. title since 1973. The Nets might not be an afterthought like they were in New Jersey, but the Knicks would still be the toast of the town.

    If the definition of insanity is trying the same process over and over and hoping for better results, Dolan’s strategy of locking in 30-something veterans to max contracts every year has been a little mad.

    Linsanity was something different. As of late Monday morning, on the mere possibility that Lin might not be re-signed, MSG stock had lost about $50 million in market value — roughly as much as the salary and luxury tax that the Knicks would need to keep the dream alive for the next three years.

    It might not work out, but the Knicks would be crazy not to try their luck.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Amen!

  6. #1176
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    Originally Posted by Kidd Karma
    64 million is currently committed to 5 players in 14-15, you need 12 players for a roster, so assume 7 players making 1 million each, that takes you to 71 million, add Lin's 14 million, that takes you to 85 million worst case scenario. Assuming a Lux Tax threshold of 70 million, Knicks would be 15 million over the threshold. Now the multiplier would be, given that the Knicks would be considered a Repeat Offender, you multiply the 15 million by $4.25, lux tax penalty would be over 63 million dollars.

    "Since Feb. 4th MSG’s stock price has increased from $29.32 to $31.15 February 10th, or 6%, adding $139 million to the company’s market value. During the same period the S&P 500 has gone up less than 1%." That was written back when Linsanity started.

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    Assuming Lin is gone, I'm selling the call options I have on MSG. I probably will wait a bit after the dust settles, but the reason I bought the options was Linsanity. I don't see the upside with him gone right now if he's gone.

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    Originally Posted by CoolClyde
    deathstroker, you have to be the worst thread starter ever on KO, however I like your thinking re Dolan.

    here's a scenario I can live with: Dolan refuses to sign Lin, because he feels dissed that Lin signed second poison pill offer, and doesn't want to pay luxury tax... MSG stock drops to the tune of 500 million dollars, MSG stockholders go into an uproar and force Dolan to resign (not re-sign!). Knicks lose Lin, Knicks lose Dolan... a fair tradeoff?



    stroke it!
    ill throw in Knicks lose Melo STAT and Lin for Knicks lose Dolan

  9. #1179
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    Somebody without a doubt will get moved in the 3rd year or whenever it is knowing that they are valuable expiring contracts whether it its Lin , Stoudemire, or someone else..

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    Originally Posted by Seba
    So, let's make these clear.

    We are not loosing cap flexibility (we will have none in any case).
    We are not loosing money (not that I care about fat **** Dolan, but he'd actually make money)
    We are not ruining the roster (we keeping an, at least, capable, productive player)
    We might actually be adding a valuable asset (see [Only registered and activated users can see links. ])

    So what were the reasons not to re-sign Jeremy Lin again?
    63 million lux tax hit, assuming 13 man roster with Lin, salary totals 85 million, lux tax level at 70 million. Knicks are repeat offender, tax rate is 4.25 per.

  11. #1181
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    Originally Posted by elcol
    Somebody without a doubt will get moved in the 3rd year or whenever it is knowing that they are valuable expiring contracts whether it its Lin , Stoudemire, or someone else..
    Probably that would be the hope if Lin is matched. Knicks should have some spare picks laying around to ship as sweeteners, then we pick up 3-4 cheaper usable players to fill out the roster without having to dip to far over the lux tax.....something similar to what the Hawks were able to pull off for Joe Johnson.

  12. #1182
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    Originally Posted by Kidd Karma
    64 million is currently committed to 5 players in 14-15, you need 12 players for a roster, so assume 7 players making 1 million each, that takes you to 71 million, add Lin's 14 million, that takes you to 85 million worst case scenario. Assuming a Lux Tax threshold of 70 million, Knicks would be 15 million over the threshold. Now the multiplier would be, given that the Knicks would be considered a Repeat Offender, you multiply the 15 million by $4.25, lux tax penalty would be over 63 million dollars.
    15*4.25?

    Go read the CBA or shut up.

    63millions smh

  13. #1183
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    Originally Posted by Kidd Karma
    63 million lux tax hit, assuming 13 man roster with Lin, salary totals 85 million, lux tax level at 70 million. Knicks are repeat offender, tax rate is 4.25 per.
    I'm going to say it to you again just for the joy of it. Go educate yourself or shut up.
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    There you go. Reading won't kill you.

  14. #1184
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    The stock market? Really?! Is this is how low Lin fans have stooped? Making threads about the effect Lin's imminent departure will have on MSG stocks? To be completely honest I don't give two fuks about MSG stocks, whether Lin remains a part of the team, or whether any of his groupies remain Knicks fans after he has gone. This ex (and potentially future) D-Leaguer should not be monopolising what has already been a pretty successful off-season. Over the past two weeks, this team has added experience, talent. defensive depth, and has also re-signed players who were incredibly useful for us last season. Yet people can't see past this Lin saga. The fact is that you are all stressing over Lin more than he is. He couldn't care less whether he remains a Knick or not (evidently) so why do you lot? This thread is the eptome of desperation.

  15. #1185
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    Originally Posted by TakMan
    The stock market? Really?! Is this is how low Lin fans have stooped? Making threads about the effect Lin's imminent departure will have on MSG stocks? To be completely honest I don't give two fuks about MSG stocks, whether Lin remains a part of the team, or whether any of his groupies remain Knicks fans after he has gone. This ex (and potentially future) D-Leaguer should not be monopolising what has already been a pretty successful off-season. Over the past two weeks, this team has added experience, talent. defensive depth, and has also re-signed players who were incredibly useful for us last season. Yet people can't see past this Lin saga. The fact is that you are all stressing over Lin more than he is. He couldn't care less whether he remains a Knick or not (evidently) so why do you lot? This thread is the eptome of desperation.
    We are just analyzing the front offices moves, as is always done around these forums..

    Why are you so butthurt?

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