I copied and paste this, I wrote some of my comments inside, interesting read.
"[i]A lot has been said and written lately about the new CBA, with the Mavericks decision to let Tyson Chandler walk serving as a primary topic of discussion.
The 1st thing to understand is the 2013-2014 season will be when the **** begins to hit the fan for teams who are above the tax threshold. With that in mind, let's take a look at what teams are committed to what in that season, and who they are committed to.
Forgive me if some of these numbers aren't perfect, but from what I have gathered, they ought to be pretty close, at least for the teams that matter.
Miami - $75.8MM (James, Wade, Bosh, Miller, Haslem, Anthony, Battier, Jones)
Lakers - $61.5MM (Bryant, Gasol, Artest, Blake)
Memphis - $58.5MM (Randolph, Gay, Gasol, Conley)
Chicago - $57.3MM (Rose, Boozer, Deng, Noah)
*New York - $57.2MM (Chandler, Stoudamire, Anthony)
OKC - $48.4MM (Durant, Perkins, Westbrook, Sefolosha, Collison)
GS - $48.1MM (Bogut, Lee, Jefferson, Biedrins)
Dallas - $41.1MM (Dirk, Marion, Haywood)
Atlanta - $41MM (Johnson, Horford, Williams)
Detroit - $34.8MM (Gordon, Stuckey, Villanueva)
Denver - $32.7MM (Afflalo, Harrington, Birdman, Gallinari, Koufos)
*Orlando - $31.5MM (Hedu, Davis, J. Richardson, Duhon, Q. Richardson)
Phoenix - $30.5MM (Gortat, Childress, Frye, Warrick, Dudley)
Boston - $27.3MM (Pierce, Rondo)
NO - $24.8MM (Okafor, Ariza, Smith)
Minny - $24.6MM (Love, JJB, Lee, Ridnour)
Philly - $24.5MM (Iggy, Young)
Sac - $24.5MM (Salmons, Thornton, Hayes, Outlaw)
Milwaukee - $22.3MM (Ellis, Gooden, Mbah a Moute)
Toronto - $22.1MM (Bargnani, Johnson, Kleiza)
*Portland- $21MM (Aldridge, Matthews)
Washington - $20.8MM (Nene, Blatch)
Clippers - $19MM (Jordan, Butler)
SA - $16.5MM (Parker, Bonner)
Houston - $16.4MM (Scola, Lowry)
Indiana - $14MM (Granger)
Cleveland - $9.1MM (Varejao)
Charlotte - $8.7MM (Thomas)
Utah - $0
*NJ - $0
*Portland used its amnesty on Brandon Roy and will still pay him $17.8MM in 2014
*NJ used its amnesty on Travis Outlaw and will still pay him $4MM in 2014
*Orlando used its amnesty on Gilbert Arenas and will still psy him $22.3MM in 2014
*New York used its amnesty on Chauncey Billups and will pay him $0 in 2014
Next up is to understand why the game changes substantially in the 2013-2014. That's when the new luxury tax penalties, and the repeater tax come into effect.
For now, you are taxed at the old rate of $1 per $1 over the luxury threshold. Starting in 2014, the penatlies are:
$1.50 for the first $5MM
$1.75 for the 2nd $5MM
$2.50 for the 3rd $5MM
$3.25 For the 4th $5MM
And so on
The repeater tax tacks on an additional $1 per $1 over for any team above the threshold in 3 years out of a 4 year period. That's why the Odom bust was a double whammy for Dallas. They went over the tax line to get him, and used up one of their tax years.
The current cap amount is about $58MM with a luxury tax threshold of about $70MM. It's impossible to know what it will be next season, but it will not be much higher than this season, if it is higher at all. With the players getting less of the BRI in the new deal, the cap isn't going to grow as much year over year.
So let's use the $58MM and $70MM as starting points and look at who is in deep doodoo and is going to be desperate to move salary or pay a hefty price.
Miami - As it stands today, Miami would be about $5.8MM over the threshold, meaning they would pay an extra $14,7MM in taxes, assuming they are paying the repeater tax. They have $57MM tied up in Wade, James and Bosh alone. You can bet your bottom dollar that they are going to move one of those guys.
Lakers - You already saw them dumping salary by moving Lamar Odom for nothing. They have $50MM tied up in just Kobe and Gasol for 2014. Kobe will be making $30MM alone. They don't have Bynum locked up, and I can't envision them keeping that Big 3 together unless they are ready to pay some serious tax.
New York - They are beyond screwed, They have $57MM tied up in Chandler, Amare and Melo and have already used their amnesty provision. That's going to be their team going forward.....
Orlando - Factor in the $22MM they will be paying Arenas and they are already at a payroll of $54MM to a bunch of scrubs. I'm not sure they can afford to sign Howard even if they want to.
OKC - They are not screwed by any means when they have KD and Westbrook locked up long term, but it is pretty clear that they can't keep both Ibaka and Harden.
Clearly you are going to start seeing teams move guys to teams with cap room just in salary dumps, and there will be a bunch of amnesty players coming up in the next 12 months. You can do it once and once only during the CBA, and that contract does not count against your cap or the tax, but you still have to pay the guy.
The decision for New York to amnesty Billups in order to sign Chandler was absurd since he was in the last year of his deal. The Amare deal is awful; he's an injury prone big man whos a poor defender and rebounder, and with the new penalties, it is going to be much harder to rid yourself of bad contracts. Teams are just going to be much less willing to pay the steep penalties. You also cannot restructure contracts to backload salary. It's not allowed under the new rules.