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Thread: A Look at James Dolan and this offseason

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    Default A Look at James Dolan and this offseason

    Last night i was encouraging that everyone just wait a little bit and see how this whole situation would play out. Well, this morning it seems pretty certain that the Knicks won't match Lin's offer. You won't see Alan Hahn or anybody on ESPN say this, mainly because playing up the drama of a hurt relationship makes a better story to write in their dumb columns, but the bottom line is that this is an extremely dangerous precedent that has been set from the perspective of a Knicks fan.

    Here is our situation:
    No matter what we do, and no matter how much money we save over the next three years, we will still be over the cap and likely paying luxury tax, so the best we will have in the offseason are mini MLEs and sign and trades. For people who say Lin isn't worth the money, please just go back and read that last sentence one more time. The bottom line is that money spent this year for the duration of the next 3 years has no bearing on future flexibility, and only effects the wallet of James Dolan.

    However, this thread is not about Jeremy Lin...I'm tired of people going back and forth arguing over whether he is "worth the money," so if that is what your qualm is with my post so far, please just hold on. This is about Dolan and the future of the Knicks organization.

    The biggest thing to draw from this offseason is that the Knicks are not willing to pay significant luxury tax

    Being a large market team, reading that is a very scary thought. Our whole advantage being in NY, the largest television market by far in the US, is that we allegedly do not have to play under the same rules as everyone else.

    Exhibit A: Knicks refuse to sign Landry Fields

    The deal was 5 million for the first 2 years, and 10 million for the third, which has an effective cost on NY of 27 million for year 3. I'm not going to argue for a minute that Landry fields is worth that kind of money, however, the deal is only 3 years, so just like the Lin offer, matching this would only cost money and not flexibility.

    Exhibit B: Knicks *potentially* refuse to sign Jeremy Lin

    This time the deal is 15 million in year 3, which has an effective cost of 40 million for the third year. Once again, I want to say that this thread is not about whether Lin is worth that money.

    Exhibit C: Season ticket prices are set and the MSG T ime Warner deal is done

    This is what I would like replies to focus on (if there are any). Take a look at MSG stock over the last six months:

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    The end of January was when the Timewarner blackout of MSG stood in full effect. Linsanity began on Febuary fourth, with a deal being struck on Febuary 17th (the details of which emerged over the following few days). Notice the immediate two point jump in stock, worth approximately $100 million dollars to the Dolan Family. I'm not going to credit Lin for the entire six point gain since the whole fiasco, but on January 31st, the knicks were a team on a losing streak that nobody would watch. 3 Weeks later, it was an unimaginable crime and hardship to picture a third of New York City cable televisions blacked out to their games.

    That is what Lin did for Dolan: 100 million in 2 weeks, and there is no denying that. However, this is where I get very disgusted. The Timewarner deal is done and old news. There will not be any renegotation, so losing Lin should have a minimal hit on the stock. Moreoever, the stadium will fill out whether or not Lin is there because the Knicks are a playoff team without him. Not matching these two offers is a cool 65 million in profit saved directly by Dolan.

    Now for some foreshadowing
    Why is this important? If we are unwilling to go over the luxury tax for guys like Field and Lin, we will not have the cap flexibility to match S&T cap numbers for our next crop of guys we try to lure to NY. We need to keep in mind that along with being a huge hit to the luxury tax, bumping up the third year of The Fields/Lin contracts also turns them in huge expiring contracts, which are also known as trade assets If 3 years from now there is a guy like Kevin Love saying he won't sign anywhere but NY, we could pretty much offer Lin for Love in a straight up deal, along with throwing in some draftpicks. Match the Landry offer as well, and we could throw in his expiring deal and take back a bad contract.

    The bottom line is that I am very pissed off about the way this offseason is unfolding, and it demonstrates a willingness by Dolan to maximize his profits at the expense of the success of our team

    Am I asking too much for Dolan to empty his wallets given the ticket prices we pay to go to games and market share that MSG currently has? As "ridiculous" as these contracts are, isn't it more ridiculous to see that the largest market in the NBA won't pay up for in the best case scenario, two game changing players, and in the worst case, two nice expiring contracts and trade bait in the next important FA offseason for the Knicks (The year that Chandler and Amare's contracts expire).
    Last edited by BillyHoyle; Jul 15, 2012 at 12:32.

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    by your logic we would have 74 million dollars committed to 4 players let that logic sit in for a bit? and 40 million dollar luxury tax hold hit once Lin's third years come in to play with no financial flexibility. With the contracts we have now say we commit to Lin thats 90 million for 7 players only how are we rounding out the rest of the roster? without winning a championship no one is coming here for cheap i.e the Miami model (to match and compete with said team)

    We have to maintain flexibility somehow and I'm sorry but i would not pay Lin 15 million at this stage of his career/without any playoff experience he unproven commodity thats ridiculous 4 years 28.8 manageable team option in the fourth year to 3 year 25 mil means he packed his own bags to houston

    The contracts we sign now give us the flexibility in the future to either a trade for a better point guard (melo's pipe dream) B. Trade for a decent SG C. Trade for draft picks (who am i kidding we don't care about those !) D. Pay JR Smith if plays decently E. AQUIRE TALENT TO HELP OUR CORE OF MELO-AMARE-CHANDLER because at the end of the day thats who our commitment is to

    What this new CBA has proven is that it is scaring the life out of teams taking risks and from ridiculous spending look at the Mavericks and how they let everyone on their team walk or how the Lakers let Odom walk for a trade exception (later flipped for nash) but i hope you get my point

    No one wants to be capped out searching for talent with minimum flexibility committing most of your money to 4 players at best. 1 an unproven commodity. at some point you have to remove the mask of fandom and put yourself in the shoes of a GM and what your best move is to make


    Even though this unbelievable that this is happening this is an intelligent basketball move by the Knicks brass Felton comes on a reasonable contract and he dosen't pan out again (ironic i know) he can be moved

    Instead of complaining about dolan not spending the money to retain talent be thankful that we have glen grunwald on board to have the basketball sense to maintain financial flexibility for the future

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    Originally Posted by WeReady
    by your logic we would have 74 million dollars committed to 4 players let that logic sit in for a bit? and 40 million dollar luxury tax hold hit once Lin's third years come in to play with no financial flexibility. With the contracts we have now say we commit to Lin thats 90 million for 7 players only how are we rounding out the rest of the roster? without winning a championship no one is coming here for cheap i.e the Miami model (to match and compete with said team)

    We have to maintain flexibility somehow and I'm sorry but i would not pay Lin 15 million at this stage of his career/without any playoff experience he unproven commodity thats ridiculous 4 years 28.8 manageable team option in the fourth year to 3 year 25 mil means he packed his own bags to houston

    The contracts we sign now give us the flexibility in the future to either a trade for a better point guard (melo's pipe dream) B. Trade for a decent SG C. Trade for draft picks (who am i kidding we don't care about those !) D. Pay JR Smith if plays decently E. AQUIRE TALENT TO HELP OUR CORE OF MELO-AMARE-CHANDLER because at the end of the day thats who our commitment is to

    What this new CBA has proven is that it is scaring the life out of teams taking risks and from ridiculous spending look at the Mavericks and how they let everyone on their team walk or how the Lakers let Odom walk for a trade exception (later flipped for nash) but i hope you get my point

    No one wants to be capped out searching for talent with minimum flexibility committing most of your money to 4 players at best. 1 an unproven commodity. at some point you have to remove the mask of fandom and put yourself in the shoes of a GM and what your best move is to make


    Even though this unbelievable that this is happening this is an intelligent basketball move by the Knicks brass Felton comes on a reasonable contract and he dosen't pan out again (ironic i know) he can be moved

    Instead of complaining about dolan not spending the money to retain talent be thankful that we have glen grunwald on board to have the basketball sense to maintain financial flexibility for the future

    But u would pay him 5 million a year,,,,,,,,,so worse case trade him the 3rd year to a team that wants an expiring contract and tickets sold......remember the 15 million is year 3 we have time to decide.

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    At least they resigned Steve Novak to a contract. he's much more of a major piece than Lin. GO KNICKS!

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    Knicks should have offered Lin a contract off the bat. they could of offered him the maximum amount that would not trigger the lux tax. use the MLE or something. that would be a win-win for lin and the knicks. lin gets 5 mil per year (or whatever it is, a very generous amount for a rookie who hasn't even played a full season yet), and the knicks don't have to pay the lux tax on him. lin would have signed that offer right away because he would make millions more just on the endorsement deals by staying in NY, the most lucrative media market in the country. it would have made things so much simpler.

    allowing him to seek a contract from another team first lets the other team control the agenda. not only that but could be interpreted by lin that the knicks aren't really serious about keeping him and really complicates things. really stupid move all around by knicks manangement. maybe they weren't really serious about keeping him after all.

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    Originally Posted by midnitevoyage
    Knicks should have offered Lin a contract off the bat. they could of offered him the maximum amount that would not trigger the lux tax. use the MLE or something. that would be a win-win for lin and the knicks. lin gets 5 mil per year (or whatever it is, a very generous amount for a rookie who hasn't even played a full season yet), and the knicks don't have to pay the lux tax on him. lin would have signed that offer right away because he would make millions more just on the endorsement deals by staying in NY, the most lucrative media market in the country. it would have made things so much simpler.

    allowing him to seek a contract from another team first lets the other team control the agenda. not only that but could be interpreted by lin that the knicks aren't really serious about keeping him and really complicates things. really stupid move all around by knicks manangement. maybe they weren't really serious about keeping him after all.
    no one really expected Lin to get a ridiculous poison pill contract even though it was always a possibility

    and if reports are true that lin signed both offer sheets, then it is a btch move by Lin...he could have had a legit deal with the Knicks...he just got greedy like every athlete.

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    Originally Posted by Paul1355
    no one really expected Lin to get a ridiculous poison pill contract even though it was always a possibility

    and if reports are true that lin signed both offer sheets, then it is a btch move by Lin...he could have had a legit deal with the Knicks...he just got greedy like every athlete.
    yeah but look at it from lin's perspective. he probably gets the feeling that the knicks arent serious about keeping him because they didn't offer him any contract. so if thats the case in his mind he's going to try to maximize what he can get with houston. all of this mess could have been avoided if NY simply offered him the contract first. then lin would have no doubt the Knicks are serious about keeping him. which gives him peace of mind. you dont want to plant doubt in a guy's mind because that's not a good thing to do.

    if you're just a rookie you want to go with the team that offers you the sure thing, and a signed contract is the only sure thing. because you never know what could happen.

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    Originally Posted by midnitevoyage
    yeah but look at it from lin's perspective. he probably gets the felling that the knicks arent serious about keeping him because they didnt offer any contract. so if thats the case in his mind he's going to try to maximize what he can get with houston. all of this mess could have been avoided if NY offered him the contract first. then he would have no doubt the Knicks are serious about keeping him. which gives him peace of mind. if you're just a rookie you want to go with the team that offers you the sure thing, and a signed contract is the only sure thing. because you never know what could happen.
    Nash is better so lets be real. Lin knows Nash is legit.

    Now the rumor was that everyone expected Knicks to match and they let Lin test the market.

    Now Lin tested the market and got an offer from Houston...4 years for 28 mil...that is reasonable and the Knicks told Lin they planned to match

    Lin then goes back to Houston and tells them knicks will match, so Houston says ok we are depserate we will give you 14 mil in year 3...Lin says ok whatever more money for me in year 3...lets do it....now sources say Lin is schocked that Knicks wont match...but Lin put them in a tough position based on his greed and accepting the 2nd offer sheet. He did not have to sign the 2nd offer sheet. He could have just accepted the 1st one and wait for the Knicks to match.

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    Originally Posted by WeReady
    by your logic we would have 74 million dollars committed to 4 players let that logic sit in for a bit? and 40 million dollar luxury tax hold hit once Lin's third years come in to play with no financial flexibility. With the contracts we have now say we commit to Lin thats 90 million for 7 players only how are we rounding out the rest of the roster? without winning a championship no one is coming here for cheap i.e the Miami model (to match and compete with said team)

    We have to maintain flexibility somehow and I'm sorry but i would not pay Lin 15 million at this stage of his career/without any playoff experience he unproven commodity thats ridiculous 4 years 28.8 manageable team option in the fourth year to 3 year 25 mil means he packed his own bags to houston

    The contracts we sign now give us the flexibility in the future to either a trade for a better point guard (melo's pipe dream) B. Trade for a decent SG C. Trade for draft picks (who am i kidding we don't care about those !) D. Pay JR Smith if plays decently E. AQUIRE TALENT TO HELP OUR CORE OF MELO-AMARE-CHANDLER because at the end of the day thats who our commitment is to

    What this new CBA has proven is that it is scaring the life out of teams taking risks and from ridiculous spending look at the Mavericks and how they let everyone on their team walk or how the Lakers let Odom walk for a trade exception (later flipped for nash) but i hope you get my point

    No one wants to be capped out searching for talent with minimum flexibility committing most of your money to 4 players at best. 1 an unproven commodity. at some point you have to remove the mask of fandom and put yourself in the shoes of a GM and what your best move is to make


    Even though this unbelievable that this is happening this is an intelligent basketball move by the Knicks brass Felton comes on a reasonable contract and he dosen't pan out again (ironic i know) he can be moved

    Instead of complaining about dolan not spending the money to retain talent be thankful that we have glen grunwald on board to have the basketball sense to maintain financial flexibility for the future
    Where is the "financial flexibility" that you're talking of? Even without keeping lin, we are over both the cap and tax just from Stat, Chandler, and Melo, since we have 60 million committed to those 3, and the Cap is 60 million. The bottom line is we have no flexibility where we are right now. By matching Lin, we have the flexibility of trading lin for a similarly valued contract. You're completely off by claiming that this move increases our flexibility, unless you think that Stat's contract can somehow be moved or you are suggesting trading Melo/Chandler. The way things are now, every single contract comes off the books when the Lin/Fields deals expire. The bottom line is you're right that it's dumb for Dolan to commit all of that money to 4 players when our "big 3" are enough to fill the stands, but it's only dumb due to the fact that in not matching Lin, he makes a cool 40 million in bottom line dollars, since the MSG Timewarner deal is already in place and season ticket prices are set and sold.
    Last edited by BillyHoyle; Jul 15, 2012 at 13:44.

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    Originally Posted by BillyHoyle
    Where is the "financial flexibility" that you're talking of? Even without keeping lin, we are over both the cap and tax just from Stat, Chandler, and Melo, since we have 60 million committed to those 3, and the Cap is 60 million. The bottom line is we have no flexibility where we are right now. By matching Lin, we have the flexibility of trading lin for a similarly valued contract. You're completely off by claiming that this move increases our flexibility, unless you think that Stat's contract can somehow be moved or you are suggesting trading Melo/Chandler. The way things are now, every single contract comes off the books when the Lin/Fields deals expire. The bottom line is you're right that it's dumb for Dolan to commit all of that money to 4 players when our "big 3" are enough to fill the stands, but it's only dumb due to the fact that in not matching Lin, he makes a cool 40 million in bottom line dollars, since the MSG Timewarner deal is already in place and season ticket prices are set and sold.
    it keeps up from hitting the apron (luxury tax teams) that sets a hard cap where were will not make any moves period thats the flexibility I'm talking about

    So yeah he could easily makes us that money but what talent are we surrounding around our team after him with no flexibility?

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    Originally Posted by WeReady
    it keeps up from hitting the apron (luxury tax teams) that sets a hard cap where were will not make any moves period thats the flexibility I'm talking about

    So yeah he could easily makes us that money but what talent are we surrounding around our team after him with no flexibility?
    The "hard cap" that people talk about is the ballooned up luxury tax. There isn't actually a decrease in flexibility as far as vet mins/MLE go. We will be paying some luxury tax no matter what because of Stat, Melo, and Chandler-so the limitations of luxury tax paying teams will apply no matter what. The only question is how much luxury tax will we pay.

    Here is the chart taken from wiki and the impact on Dolan's wallet: Keep in mind that this chart works just like regular taxes where you pay 1.5 on the first 5 million over, 1.75 on the next 5, then 2.5 on the third five (average tax of 1.9 for being 15 million over). So, to be 25 million dollars over the tax (landry +Lin) would cost 1.5*5 + 1.75*5 +2.5*5 +3.25*10=61.25 million. That's a lot of money, but it's just money from Dolan, all off the books in the same year as our 60 million committed to Stat/Melo/Chandler.

    Amount over tax threshold Standard tax Repeat offender tax
    $5 million or less $1.50 $2.50
    $5 million to $10 million $1.75 $2.75
    $10 million to $15 million $2.50 $3.50
    $15 million to $25 million $3.25 $4.25

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    The "hard cap" that people talk about is the ballooned up luxury tax. There isn't actually a decrease in flexibility as far as vet mins/MLE go. We will be paying some luxury tax no matter what because of Stat, Melo, and Chandler-so the limitations of luxury tax paying teams will apply no matter what. The only question is how much luxury tax will we pay.

    Here is the chart taken from wiki and the impact on Dolan's wallet: Keep in mind that this chart works just like regular taxes where you pay 1.5 on the first 5 million over, 1.75 on the next 5, then 2.5 on the third five (average tax of 1.9 for being 15 million over). So, to be 25 million dollars over the tax (landry +Lin) would cost 1.5*5 + 1.75*5 +2.5*5 +3.25*10=61.25 million. That's a lot of money, but it's just money from Dolan, all off the books in the same year as our 60 million committed to Stat/Melo/Chandler.

    Amount over tax threshold Standard tax Repeat offender tax
    $5 million or less $1.50 $2.50
    $5 million to $10 million $1.75 $2.75
    $10 million to $15 million $2.50 $3.50
    $15 million to $25 million $3.25 $4.25

    you can't hand out MLE money once you hit the apron that is what Larry Coon said so again what type of talent are we attracting to compete with the Miami Heat on Vet Min deals? Once we hit that wall matching Lin is a mistake and I'm glad that knicks are doing something right for once

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    Originally Posted by BillyHoyle
    Last night i was encouraging that everyone just wait a little bit and see how this whole situation would play out. Well, this morning it seems pretty certain that the Knicks won't match Lin's offer. You won't see Alan Hahn or anybody on ESPN say this, mainly because playing up the drama of a hurt relationship makes a better story to write in their dumb columns, but the bottom line is that this is an extremely dangerous precedent that has been set from the perspective of a Knicks fan.

    Here is our situation:
    No matter what we do, and no matter how much money we save over the next three years, we will still be over the cap and likely paying luxury tax, so the best we will have in the offseason are mini MLEs and sign and trades. For people who say Lin isn't worth the money, please just go back and read that last sentence one more time. The bottom line is that money spent this year for the duration of the next 3 years has no bearing on future flexibility, and only effects the wallet of James Dolan.

    However, this thread is not about Jeremy Lin...I'm tired of people going back and forth arguing over whether he is "worth the money," so if that is what your qualm is with my post so far, please just hold on. This is about Dolan and the future of the Knicks organization.

    The biggest thing to draw from this offseason is that the Knicks are not willing to pay significant luxury tax

    Being a large market team, reading that is a very scary thought. Our whole advantage being in NY, the largest television market by far in the US, is that we allegedly do not have to play under the same rules as everyone else.

    Exhibit A: Knicks refuse to sign Landry Fields

    The deal was 5 million for the first 2 years, and 10 million for the third, which has an effective cost on NY of 27 million for year 3. I'm not going to argue for a minute that Landry fields is worth that kind of money, however, the deal is only 3 years, so just like the Lin offer, matching this would only cost money and not flexibility.

    Exhibit B: Knicks *potentially* refuse to sign Jeremy Lin

    This time the deal is 15 million in year 3, which has an effective cost of 40 million for the third year. Once again, I want to say that this thread is not about whether Lin is worth that money.

    Exhibit C: Season ticket prices are set and the MSG T ime Warner deal is done

    This is what I would like replies to focus on (if there are any). Take a look at MSG stock over the last six months:

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    The end of January was when the Timewarner blackout of MSG stood in full effect. Linsanity began on Febuary fourth, with a deal being struck on Febuary 17th (the details of which emerged over the following few days). Notice the immediate two point jump in stock, worth approximately $100 million dollars to the Dolan Family. I'm not going to credit Lin for the entire six point gain since the whole fiasco, but on January 31st, the knicks were a team on a losing streak that nobody would watch. 3 Weeks later, it was an unimaginable crime and hardship to picture a third of New York City cable televisions blacked out to their games.

    That is what Lin did for Dolan: 100 million in 2 weeks, and there is no denying that. However, this is where I get very disgusted. The Timewarner deal is done and old news. There will not be any renegotation, so losing Lin should have a minimal hit on the stock. Moreoever, the stadium will fill out whether or not Lin is there because the Knicks are a playoff team without him. Not matching these two offers is a cool 65 million in profit saved directly by Dolan.

    Now for some foreshadowing
    Why is this important? If we are unwilling to go over the luxury tax for guys like Field and Lin, we will not have the cap flexibility to match S&T cap numbers for our next crop of guys we try to lure to NY. We need to keep in mind that along with being a huge hit to the luxury tax, bumping up the third year of The Fields/Lin contracts also turns them in huge expiring contracts, which are also known as trade assets If 3 years from now there is a guy like Kevin Love saying he won't sign anywhere but NY, we could pretty much offer Lin for Love in a straight up deal, along with throwing in some draftpicks. Match the Landry offer as well, and we could throw in his expiring deal and take back a bad contract.

    The bottom line is that I am very pissed off about the way this offseason is unfolding, and it demonstrates a willingness by Dolan to maximize his profits at the expense of the success of our team

    Am I asking too much for Dolan to empty his wallets given the ticket prices we pay to go to games and market share that MSG currently has? As "ridiculous" as these contracts are, isn't it more ridiculous to see that the largest market in the NBA won't pay up for in the best case scenario, two game changing players, and in the worst case, two nice expiring contracts and trade bait in the next important FA offseason for the Knicks (The year that Chandler and Amare's contracts expire).
    Posting and toasting!

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