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    Default ESPN Insider: Lin vs. Felton

    Nothing really new, Felton reverting back to the mean and Lin improving. Kind of deadlocked as to who would be the better PG for the Knicks. Just sharing since most of you don't have Insider.

    Revisiting Lin vs. Felton decision


    Originally Published: February 27, 2013
    By [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] | ESPN Insider



    Elsa/Getty ImagesFelton is averaging 14.7 points and 6.0 assists, while Lin is producing 12.7 and 6.2.
    From the standpoint of the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ], hoping to justify their decision to let [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] leave in free agency and replace him at point guard with [Only registered and activated users can see links. ], this season couldn't have started any better. Felton was excellent during the month of November as the Knicks got off to a surprising start, while Lin struggled to find his place next to [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] with the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].
    Some three months later, it's worth revisiting the Lin decision. Felton's success, like his team's, has proved fleeting. Meanwhile, the Rockets and Lin are one of the league's hottest teams.
    Misleading month

    You remember November, right? President Barack Obama had just been re-elected, Manti Te'o was merely a linebacker in contention for the Heisman, and the Knicks were one of the NBA's best teams. Behind a flurry of 3-pointers and a smaller lineup with [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] at power forward, New York started the season 14-4. The Knicks capped that stretch with their second win over the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] and marked themselves as serious contenders in the Eastern Conference.



    New York's backcourt of Felton and fellow newcomer [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] played a major role in the fast start. Felton made 40 percent of his 3s in November while averaging 14.6 points and 6.7 assists. Kidd was even better beyond the arc at nearly 49 percent. As a team, the Knicks shot 41.6 percent from 3-point range, powering the league's best offensive rating in the month.
    Everyone said the shooting couldn't last, and it didn't. Since Dec. 1, New York has shot exactly the league average (35.8 percent) on 3-pointers. Felton, at 31.4 percent, has been even worse. The Knicks are still a very good offensive team, ranking sixth in points per possession from December onward, but not the juggernaut they once were.
    By The Numbers


    Stat November Since
    NY ORating 110.8 (1) 107.3 (6)
    HOU ORating 102.8 (10) 108.2 (4)
    Felton WARP 1.1 0.2
    Lin WARP 0.3 2.0


    At the same time, as the chart shows, the Rockets were making the opposite transformation, with Lin as one of the leaders. As Houston has figured out how to utilize both Harden and Lin, the Rockets' offense has gone from solidly above average in November to elite. Lin's own statistics, as measured by [Only registered and activated users can see links. ], have seen a similar boost.
    Knicks finding their level

    The Knicks, it turns out, are who we thought they were. Since peaking at 14-4, they have consistently played at about a 45-win pace -- [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]. Project that out through the rest of the schedule and New York figures to finish somewhere around 49 wins, which should be good for third in the East.
    Fears that the crosstown rival [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] will come back to win the Atlantic Division are probably overstated. While the Nets have climbed within two games in the standings, their point differential is barely better than .500, suggesting they're likely to regress somewhat the rest of the way. The same is true of the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ], who sit fifth, leaving only the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] with a healthy [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] as a serious threat to the Knicks' top-three seed.
    Felton, it turns out, is also who we thought he was -- not quite as bad as he looked during his disastrous 2011-12 campaign in Portland, but not as good as he played during his first half-season in New York or the opening month this season. As much as Felton's playmaking and his ability to generate steals have helped the Knicks, he has had a tough time scoring efficiently since the 3s stopped falling. Felton is making just 42.4 percent of his 2-point attempts and has seen his true shooting percentage slip to 47.5 percent -- far worse than the league average of 53.2 percent.
    Moving beyond Linsanity

    For both the Knicks and Lin himself, Linsanity has become a distant memory. Gone are the headlines, the screaming fans and the incredible numbers Lin posted as the Knicks' go-to player last February. Instead of getting Linsanity, the Rockets ended up with Jeremy Lin, developing point guard.
    Playing next to Harden, Lin isn't the focal point of the Houston offense the way he was during the stretch that made him a household name. However, he has defied critics by showing the ability to thrive in that smaller role. In part, that's because of [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]. It also reflects Lin's 3-point shooting regressing to the mean. After shooting 26.3 percent from downtown in November, Lin is at 34.4 percent since, making him something of a threat when opponents leave him open.
    The funny thing is Lin's 2012-13 stat line is relatively similar in many ways to what he did last year in New York. His effective field goal percentage, for example, is an identical .478. The difference in Lin's offense is entirely a matter of volume. He's down from using 28.1 percent of the Knicks' plays to 20 percent of Houston's, putting him precisely at the typical figure, and his assist rate has dropped by almost a third. Lin's overall performance, All-Star caliber in 2011-12's limited sample, is slightly below league average this season. That's a more sustainable level of play.
    Looking ahead

    Lin's ability to coexist with Harden, who doesn't use as many plays as Anthony but tends to dominate the ball to a greater extent, leads naturally to the question of whether Lin could have fit into an Anthony-centric offense at Madison Square Garden.
    There are advantages to Lin's current situation. Houston's fast pace, and the sheer number of pick-and-rolls the Rockets run as the basis of their offense, give him more opportunity to play in space than he might have had in New York. Still, it's not clear that Felton is any better fit for the Knicks than Lin would have been. According to mySynergySports.com, the two players have been about equally effective on spot-up opportunities, with Lin averaging 0.91 points per shot to Felton's 0.95. Surprisingly, Lin is a much more frequent spot-up shooter.
    We're also comparing these players as they are now, not as they will be at the end of the three-year contract Houston gave Lin. While Felton, 28, is likely to be about the same player at that point if not take a slight step backward, the 24-year-old Lin still has room to grow as an outside shooter and playmaker.
    The Knicks won the early rounds of the Lin versus Felton decision. If Lin already has pulled even, however, there may be no question who the better choice was in a couple of years.
    Last edited by tiger0330; Feb 27, 2013 at 12:10.

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    Lin is better all around. no question.

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    the one thing that's not taken into account here is the pressure of the city. here lin would've been on billboards and doing commercials and appearances all the time. in houston he's probably doing a third of what he would've been doing here. for his sake, houston was probably a better fit for him due to the fact that it's just about basketball. in new york, the media would've always questioned him and wondered about how he fits with melo blah blah blah.

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    Lin is driving into paint even with revers and also dont take dump shots and better court vision + he is faster

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    Interesting, he has us finishing with 45-50 wins and 3rd seed in the EC. Which means we can go 16-13, somewhat better than playing .500 ball (.551) and still get 3rd in the EC. The EC is still a weak conference.


    Knicks finding their level


    The Knicks, it turns out, are who we thought they were. Since peaking at 14-4, they have consistently played at about a 45-win pace -- [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]. Project that out through the rest of the schedule and New York figures to finish somewhere around 49 wins, which should be good for third in the East.
    Fears that the crosstown rival [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] will come back to win the Atlantic Division are probably overstated. While the Nets have climbed within two games in the standings, their point differential is barely better than .500, suggesting they're likely to regress somewhat the rest of the way. The same is true of the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ], who sit fifth, leaving only the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] with a healthy [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] as a serious threat to the Knicks' top-three seed.

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    LIN is so much better then Felton...There is no debate

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    Lin is simply not a better player than Felton! Lin still can not create his own shot nor apply much pressure to opposing D's. people are still caught up in the Lin Brand name; now there are quite a few PG's I'd take over Felton but even more than I'd take over Lin. The thing is people see age and think that a player has potential to get so much better when in all actuality this could be as good as Lin will ever be. What has really improved in Lin's game this year? Now consider who is getting paid more and you see Felton clearly as the better value, not to mention who plays better against stiffer competition . Never mind last year's epic fail against The Heat, how has Lin done against them this year vs. Felton. this year? Teams are playing off Lin and daring him to beat them and occasionally it backfires but by and large it has been an affective practice...Lin plays in the backcourt with arguably the 2nd or 3rd best SG and teams are focusing on he and Parsons and living with Lin doing whatever! So ESPN "insider" can say what they want but look beyond Lin's inflated stats and you'll see he's still a very overrated player..I'm taking Ray all Day!!

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    Originally Posted by New New York
    Lin is simply not a better player than Felton! Lin still can not create his own shot nor apply much pressure to opposing D's. people are still caught up in the Lin Brand name; now there are quite a few PG's I'd take over Felton but even more than I'd take over Lin. The thing is people see age and think that a player has potential to get so much better when in all actuality this could be as good as Lin will ever be. What has really improved in Lin's game this year? Now consider who is getting paid more and you see Felton clearly as the better value, not to mention who plays better against stiffer competition . Never mind last year's epic fail against The Heat, how has Lin done against them this year vs. Felton. this year? Teams are playing off Lin and daring him to beat them and occasionally it backfires but by and large it has been an affective practice...Lin plays in the backcourt with arguably the 2nd or 3rd best SG and teams are focusing on he and Parsons and living with Lin doing whatever! So ESPN "insider" can say what they want but look beyond Lin's inflated stats and you'll see he's still a very overrated player..I'm taking Ray all Day!!

    ZERO to due with hype.
    You would be foolish to want Felton over LIN.
    Remember its not other PG;s...its LIn or Felton...
    its not age or what if's
    Plain and simple LIN is better

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    I've been watching Rockets games and I've noticed that Houston offense is not centered around the PG..meaning anyone can bring up the ball. A lot of the times, I've seen Harden just play the point, and a lot of the times I've seen Lin just bring up the ball and pass it to Harden to playmake.

    Lin had a crappy start in Houston but he's averaging almost 15 points in a system recently where he doesnt get to touch the ball much or play the point. That's pretty damn impressive.

    Houston's current system is not good for Lin and vice versa is true too. He's being used as a ball-deferring spot-up shooter who camps at 3. They're not using his penetration skills. Their coach is pretty bad lol. I would love to have Lin back here in NY as long as he can mesh with Melo.

    He is better than Felton, no doubt about it. The only question is, which of the two PGs can mesh with Melo better?

    Originally Posted by New New York
    Lin plays in the backcourt with arguably the 2nd or 3rd best SG and teams are focusing on he and Parsons and living with Lin doing whatever! So ESPN "insider" can say what they want but look beyond Lin's inflated stats and you'll see he's still a very overrated player..I'm taking Ray all Day!!
    Lin's stats are actually the total opposite of inflated..the way his coach uses him in Rockets, really makes him suffer bad stats

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    Originally Posted by skisloper
    ZERO to due with hype.
    You would be foolish to want Felton over LIN.
    Remember its not other PG;s...its LIn or Felton...
    its not age or what if's
    Plain and simple LIN is better

    Don't think I posed a single "what if" but lets talk facts?



    Ok answer my question about Lin...how has he improved this year over last year? He still can not drive left, when he goes left he will either pull up and shoot, pass, or go back right! tell me one other NBA Starting PG with this fundamental problem!

    Felton thrived in both Woodson and Dantoni's systems...uptempo and a grind game Felton is better

    Felton is a better ball handler


    Lin is a scoring PG but he sucks at shooting the ball and creating his own shot, he can not take a man off the dribble as good as Raymond can

    Again Lin averages just 6 assist a game in the 2nd highest scoring offense in The NBA


    Neither is my end all at the PG spot...but no way we have the record we have if Lin was our point!

    As a Knick fan I certainly want more from Ray like most of you want, but we for sure would be demanding more for Lin if he
    re-upped here this past summer. If he was giving us 12 and 6 and the numbers he is giving Hou. there would be Chris Paul thread and goofy ideas about how to get him here everyday!

    Raymond is simply a good enough PG...nothing more...nothing less.

    Houston would gladly trade Lin for either of the two PG's that they let go to sign Lin (Dragic and Lowry) Regardless of what they say they are not happy with Lin's production

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    Originally Posted by New New York
    Don't think I posed a single "what if" but lets talk facts?



    Ok answer my question about Lin...how has he improved this year over last year? He still can not drive left, when he goes left he will either pull up and shoot, pass, or go back right! tell me one other NBA Starting PG with this fundamental problem!

    Felton thrived in both Woodson and Dantoni's systems...uptempo and a grind game Felton is better

    Felton is a better ball handler


    Lin is a scoring PG but he sucks at shooting the ball and creating his own shot, he can not take a man off the dribble as good as Raymond can

    Again Lin averages just 6 assist a game in the 2nd highest scoring offense in The NBA


    Neither is my end all at the PG spot...but no way we have the record we have if Lin was our point!

    As a Knick fan I certainly want more from Ray like most of you want, but we for sure would be demanding more for Lin if he
    re-upped here this past summer. If he was giving us 12 and 6 and the numbers he is giving Hou. there would be Chris Paul thread and goofy ideas about how to get him here everyday!

    Raymond is simply a good enough PG...nothing more...nothing less.

    Houston would gladly trade Lin for either of the two PG's that they let go to sign Lin (Dragic and Lowry) Regardless of what they say they are not happy with Lin's production

    I agree that Felton is good enough. I again put the blame on Woodson for not using Prigioni more and allowing Felton not to play 36 minutes a game.

    There are many PG;s I would take over Lin and Felton.

    I would rather have LIN as my starter then Felton as I feel his overall game is better and most important makes a team better.

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    6.2 assist from your PG on a uptempo team that is 2nd highest scoring team in the league...that's garbage! Felton gets almost as many in a half court slower pace squad

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    Originally Posted by New New York
    6.2 assist from your PG on a uptempo team that is 2nd highest scoring team in the league...that's garbage! Felton gets almost as many in a half court slower pace squad
    This is a great point.

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    Originally Posted by nyk_nyk
    This is a great point.
    No, it's not, because it fails to mention that Jeremy Lin isn't the only one who brings the ball up for the Rockets! FFS James Harden has 5.7 assists on that team because he's also a playmaker! If Jeremy Lin were the sole playmaker on the team then he'd obviously be averaging much higher, but that's not the case since he has to share the backcourt with Harden!

    The Knicks on the other hand only have one playmaker on the team since Kidd plays SG nowadays and doesn't usually bring the ball up the court anymore. Lin is making the best out of a bad situation - he's on a team with a ball-dominant Swingman in James Harden as opposed to having an offense centered around him. Instead of being a PG he's primarily a spot-up shooter who camps on the wing since Harden does a lot of the ball-handling and playmaking. The fact that he averages 6.2 assists is miraculous since he's pretty much playing as a SG

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    Originally Posted by SSj4Wingzero
    No, it's not, because it fails to mention that Jeremy Lin isn't the only one who brings the ball up for the Rockets!
    What does that say about his coaches confidence in him? It's safe to say Chris Paul would handle the ball more if he were a Rocket!

    And to the point of the Thread so would Felton!!!!

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