I know this may sound crazy, but I think the Knicks are going to get the number one pick. I know they only have an 8.8% chance, but Karma is in their favor. S#itty teams get high lottery picks; the Knicks are definitely a s#itty team.
Alright with the one of the most disappoinitng season coming to a close soon Knick fans have two major events comming up; one the firing (we assume) of Isiah Thomas as head coach, two is what will our lottery position be. Being that there is no way to get into Walsh's mind on the Isiah's job status; I decided to focus on the more logical event.
Damn That 3 game win streak!: The Knicks have put themselves in position to not being able to win a single game in the risk of them slipping to even lower in the lottery (we are only a half game worst than LAC). Currently we are 5th with an 8.8% chance of "winning the lottery". Had we not "won" those three games we would be tied for third with a 15.5 % chance at winning.
Lottery odds: Ok like I said 8.8% to win it all! We have a 9.7% chance to get the number 2 pick, and 10.7% chance at number 3. Here's where it gets tricky. If we stay at the fifth worst record in the league, we have no chance at the number 4 pick at all! (More on that in a second) We have a 26% chance at number 5, and our most likely percent chance is number 6 at 35%. We have a 8.7% chance at 7, which is just as likely as us getting the #1. and less than one percent at number 8, and no chance to finish any lower. So basically the win streak took us from a team who's worst case scenerio was the 6th pick, to a team that is likely to end up with the sixth pick. Damn this team can't even lose good!
How it works (sorta): There are way to many mathmatical equations for me to bore you with, but essentaily every one has a shot at the top 3 picks, ofcousre as we all know the likelyhood is based off of a teams record. But the 12,13,and 14th teams in the lottery can finish with a top three pick, but no other pick in between. So it is all or nothing for these teams. It's either they get 1,2,3, or they finish were there record would put them in lottery seedings, beacuse after the first three picks are established the rest of lottery order is deterimined by teams records. Hence why the Knicks at number 5 could not get the number four pick. If the top three teams get the top 3 picks, the #4 team assumes the forth pick, and the Knicks get the 5th. I know a little confusing, but I am trying to put it into the simplest of terms.
The Knicks best bet is to drop there remaining two games, Boston will beat us even with subs, and assuming Indy is still fighting for the playoffs, should beat us. And with Memphis facing Minnesota today, that could give the Grizz a better record. Now in the event we finish tied with Memphis the average chance of winning the lottery 11.9 and 8.8 is averaged and that is the teams likelyhood of winning the lottery.
Lets Go Grizz and Clippers! And Again DAMN THAT Three GAME WIN STREAK!
"I'd Rather Melo shoot with 3 men on him than Jefferies shotting wide open"
-Jeff Van Gundy
I know this may sound crazy, but I think the Knicks are going to get the number one pick. I know they only have an 8.8% chance, but Karma is in their favor. S#itty teams get high lottery picks; the Knicks are definitely a s#itty team.
Jeremon Linbury
I sure was not expecting that 3 game winning streak, specially with Orlando and detroit on the schedule.
Definitely hurt the Knicks' chances at a top 3. At this point let's just hope that we get lucky!!
Seattle is in a good spot, drafting Durant last season and a chance at drafting Rose or Beasley.
The Knicks players certainly do not want to lose and they don't care about the draft. Nobody wants to lose their job, so they want to win.
so Why did I make a Official NBA Draft 2008 thread?.. anyway, I do agree that 3 game winning streak was not nessasary at all. I dont want to wait so long until late may to know who up the number 1. They should have the lottery right after the season is over. Not throughtout the playoffs.
I was questioning doing this Thread because of your previous Thread, but I felt that the Lottery and Draft were kinda different in that this Thread focuses more on how teams are positioned and the Lottery process, and not so much on who we take with the pick we get.
I do agree with you in that I don't understand why we wait so long before conduting the lottery? I think it may be to keep losing teams interested in the league a little bit longer.
"I'd Rather Melo shoot with 3 men on him than Jefferies shotting wide open"
-Jeff Van Gundy
I just found out today that the number one pick is not determined by who's teams ping pong ball is pulled first. But rather who's winning combination is pulled first. A winning combination is any order on 1 2 3 4. Each team will have a set of balls labled 1-14 and again the team with the worst record gets more sets. The team that gets the winning combination of 1234 first wins, then the second team, then the third team. This system is a bit flawed to me.
"I'd Rather Melo shoot with 3 men on him than Jefferies shotting wide open"
-Jeff Van Gundy
Thanks for educating me! That is some process huh! Let's just wait and see. Yeah I posted as well because it touches an interesting angle on how the picks are drawn.
LOL! Same here. I've been bewildered by how actually the mechanics of the draft goes. I mean ya I know the basic stuff but I didn't know the combination thing until I researched on the Draft recently.
I was also surprised about the streak. What timing! Let's all pray Memphis ends up with a better record than ours. How do tiebreakers work with the Draft? Let's say we end up having a similar record as Minnesota (though it is unlikely Minnesota will win both their remaining games)? Is it inversely similar with tiebreakers for playoff positioning?
Anyway I'm not really that knowledgeable with the players eligible for the draft. All I can say is I hope we land at least the 2nd pick and get Rose or Beasley, whoever is available. LOL! Go Knicks!
No wonder the worst team rarely gets the #1 pick. You basically have to get 4 ping pongs pulled, to get the #1 pick. This system actually favors the Knicks, because even if a team with a worse record gets their ping pong pulled first, they still have to get 3 more pulled to get the pick. More reasons to believe the Knicks have a good chance to get the #1 pick.
Jeremon Linbury
Great question about the tie. In the event of a tied record there is an average done for the two teams probability to win. For instance if two teams tie for the 5th worst record. Then the 5th odds of winning 8.8% and the 6th's odd of 6.6% are averaged, and both teams have a 7.5% chance of winning. The funny thing is with The Clippers losing last night that is the exact scenerio The Knicks are in now! That 3 game win streak was probably one of the most damaging things done to us this season. We had a chance at having a 15% chance to get the #1 before the win streak, to having only a 7.5% chance, that win streak literally doubled our chances of not getting the number 1 pick! But again Portland did get the #1 with less odds last year, so we'll have to wait and see.
"I'd Rather Melo shoot with 3 men on him than Jefferies shotting wide open"
-Jeff Van Gundy
The weird thing is that they still use the ping pong balls, just in a more complicated way. The old method was 1000 ping pong balls and you get so many based on your record. The first teams ping pong ball drawn gets the number 1 pick and so on. Now they each team gets 14 numbered ping pong balls with their team logo on them. Which ever team gets the 1 2 3 4 combination (in any order) first wins, then the second team gets the second pick, and the third team the third pick.
The only sense I can make of it is to give almost no chance that a lower seed gets the 1 pick. Remeber when Orlando got in back to back years, and the second year they missed the playoffs by only a half a game. As a result Sacramento who had one of the worst records in the league gets bumped all the way down to pick #8. This method minimizes the blind luck that Orlando had that year. It would be like making Rasheed hit that full court bank shot four times before it counted instead of just once!
"I'd Rather Melo shoot with 3 men on him than Jefferies shotting wide open"
-Jeff Van Gundy
I have checked out a couple of websites and now believe I have an understanding of how the ping pong balls work.
There are 14 ping pong balls, numbered 1 through 14. The 14 ping pong balls are placed in a device that bounces them around and will eject one ball at a time. The device is turned off after four balls are ejected. The numerical order of the balls popping out of the device, i.e., which one comes out first, does not matter, just as in most lotteries. We now have four balls with four different numbers from 1 thorugh 14.
This - the four numbered balls picked - is one "combination" of numbers 1 thorugh 14 that is possible when 4 balls are randomly selected from 14 balls. It is a rule of probability that when there is no chance of repetition - the same ball twice - there are 1001 possible four ball combination when picking from a total of 14 balls. (1,2,3,4), (1,2,3,5), (1,2,3,6) . . . (1,2,3,14), etc.
One of the possible combinations is not used. That leaves 1000 possible combinations. The lottery teams are "assigned" their percentage share of the possible combinations. Miami will get 25% or 250 of the possible combinations; Seattle will get 19.9% or 199 combinations; and, as matters now stand, Minnesota will get 15.6% or 156 combinations; Memphis 11.9% or 119 combinations; with the Knicks and the Clippers tied for fifth worst and dividing the fifth place 8.8% (88 combinations) and the sixth place 6.3% (63 combinations). The total for the Knicks and Clippers to split is an is an odd number - 151. I am not sure how they would split it, but this would end up giving the Knicks about 75 combinations, i.e. a 7.5%
chance for the first pick.
All the possible combinations, 1000 of them, are "assigned" to the lottery teams. Miami is "assigned" 250 combinations, Seattle is "assigned" 199 etc. The "assignment" occurs before the lottery, but how it is done, I do not know. Probably through some random program. It does not matter because each combination is equally probable.
When the first four balls pop out of the lottery device, the team assigned the combination of numbers that matches the numbers on the four balls gets the first lottery pick.
After the first pick, they go to the second. All fourteen balls are placed in the device again and another set pops out one at a time. The team assigned this second combination of numbers that matches the numbers on the four balls, gets the second lottery pick. If the team that got the first pick also has the second combination, it is disregarded and they try again. This process goes one more time for the third pick. After that, the lottery order is set.
As a practical matter, we can forget about th ping pong balls. Its all in the percentages. And now it looks like the Knicks will have a 7.5% chance for the first pick.
One of the sites I checked did the math for last year which is the same essentially for this year. Carrying over to this year, Miami will have a 25% chance for the first pick; a 21.5% chance for the second pick; a 17.5% chance for the third pick; a 46.5% chance for any top 2 pick and a 64.3% chance for any top 3 pick. If the Knicks are fifth alone, rather than tied with the Clippers for fifth, their chances for the #1 pick would be 8.8%; for #2, 9.7%, for #3, 10.7%; for any top 2 pick, 18.5%; and for any top 3 pick, 29.1%. If they are tied with the Clippers for fifth and I have done my math right, the Knicks chances for #1 is 7.5%, for #2, 8.3%; for #3, 9.2%; for any of the top 2, 15.75% and for any of the top 3, 25%.
If the Knicks do not get one of the top three picks, we know they can not get the fourth. If they were fifth worst alone, their chances - after not getting one of the first three - for the 5th pick is 27%; for the 6th pick, 36%; and for the 7th pick 8%. It gets slightly worse if they are tied with the Clippers.
In short, that three game win streak hurts.
You nailed it! Both about our how the lottery works, and what that "win" streak did. Without that streak we would currently own the 3rd worst record. Which gives us no less than the fifth pick.
And get this Isiah is actually trying to win tonights game! He held won of the longest practices in weeks today
"I'd Rather Melo shoot with 3 men on him than Jefferies shotting wide open"
-Jeff Van Gundy
knicks could get beasley he declared today