Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 20

Thread: Hollinger's Draft Rater

  1. #1
    Veteran JayJ44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    1,700
    Rep Power
    7

    Default Hollinger's Draft Rater

    Two players are neck and neck for the top spot in this year's Draft Rater. You could easily guess that one of them is Blake Griffin, but most folks never would have guessed that the other is Lawson.
    Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he's short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.
    The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn't mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don't think Lawson's statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we've heard questions about Lawson's work ethic and injuries.
    But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you're wondering about Ricky Rubio, I'll have more on him next week.)
    The second is DeMar DeRozan, whom the Knicks saw on Thursday up at the MSG Training Center. From what I know, DeRozan, who worked out alone, showed off athleticism and a decent shooting ability. All the necessary skills to be a good pro. But according to Hollinger's formula, DeRozan has bust written all over him:
    I'd be hard-pressed to name a potential high lottery pick throughout the years about whom the Draft Rater has been less excited. I rated 90 prospects for this draft, and DeRozan ranked 54th among them. Two of his USC teammates -- Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson -- outranked him, as did assorted other nonentities such as Kevin Rogers, Chinemelu Elonu and Ben Woodside. I'll wait here while you Google them.
    Why? Because there really isn't anything in DeRozan's statistical profile that makes you think "NBA star." He rarely took or made 3-pointers, and he had a strongly negative pure point rating, which are two powerful indicators for a wing player. His numbers in other areas were unimpressive, too. In particular, he was a bad free throw shooter, which indicates that his outside shot might never be a strong suit.
    Some scouts I have talked to have compared DeRozan to Rudy Gay in terms of being an NBA athlete but having a questionable motor. But that comparison falls flat, according to the Draft Rater: Gay was the top-rated player in his draft class, while DeRozan is nowhere close. And although he's supposed to be a great athlete, he didn't show it on the court often enough: His rebound, block and steal totals were all very ordinary.
    As I mentioned above, one-and-done players sometimes fool the system -- they're the youngest, least experienced guys in the pool, and thus, a major factor is how much they improve post-draft rather than just how good they are pre-draft.
    Nonetheless, I would back away from DeRozan if the 12 relatively safe guys at the top of the Draft Rater are still on the board.
    Here is Hollinger's top 12:
    1. Lawson
    2. Blake Griffin
    3. Tyreke Evans
    4. Austin Daye
    5. Stephen Curry
    6. Nick Calathes
    7. DeJuan Blair
    8. Danny Green
    9. Jonny Flynn
    10. James Harden
    11. Hasheem Thabeet
    12. Earl Clark
    Other notables: Jrue Holiday was 13th, Terrence Williams was 19th, Jordan Hill was 26th and DeRozan 54th.
    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

    Hollinger's rating system has proved to be pretty accurate:
    From 2002 to 2007, 15 players were (a) among the first 10 collegians drafted and (b) excluded from the top 12 by the Draft Rater. In other words, these were the college players the Draft Rater thought were drafted too high. Of those 15, not one has played in an All-Star Game. The only two who have started a significant number of games in the long term have been Kirk Hinrich (who was 13th in the Draft Rater in 2003) and Charlie Villanueva.
    Who were the other top-10 picks not favored by the Draft Rater? Spencer Hawes, Acie Law, Fred Jones, Melvin Ely, Marcus Haislip, Jarvis Hayes, Rafael Araujo, Ike Diogu, Channing Frye, Randy Foye, J.J. Redick and Patrick O'Bryant.
    In other words, when the Draft Rater has suggested avoiding a player, that has turned out to be good advice.
    This is more evidence that Ty Lawson will be an excellent NBA player. It also backs up Derozan being a bust. Obviously you can't go purely off this rating system, but it's very interesting to see what the numbers say.

  2. #2
    Veteran DontForgetDerekHarper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    1,262
    Rep Power
    9

    Default

    I dont know, its hard to tell, teams, coaches, and styles of play have a huge role. Anthony randolph was considered to be a three or four years down the road type of player yet under nelson he put up significant numbers in the second half of last season and appears to be on his way to being a solid player. Danny granger instance as well was lucky that the veterans and management of the pacers fell apart after the brawl in detroit therefore leaving open an opportunity for him to play minutes and become a leader there. If danny granger was drafted late by a team like the spurs he would be coming off of the bench playing 20 mins a game. No one can predict what a player will do based on ratings, yes you can say this guy will be a good pro, but honestly it all depends on how a coach will use him. Marcus williams was a highly touted college prospect who got high ratings and he has vanished from the face of the earth. Even guys like dwayne wade no one could of seen him coming, he was similar to a tyreke evans prospect coming out of college, or even gerald henderson from the ratings I have seen, and now is he DWADE nba finals mvp. DIrk nowitzki who could of envisioned that guy doing what he is doing other than don nelson. Nash out of santa clara, back to back mvps ????. Al jefferson was considered a bust after his first 2 seasons, now in the west hes putting up 23-11. Kyle lowry traded for brandon roy lol. MY point is while discussing this and over reacting to hollinger ratings and draft express and nbadraft.net may be a fun way to lead up to the draft, the bottom line is, unlike the 80s and early 90s barring the recent Lebron james, Carmelo, Durant, types no one is a sure shot any more to be a star, mainly because other than welll the knicks lol every team pretty much has an established go to guy. Chris paul was considered a shoot first poor leadership ability selfish player when he was drafted, now hes the best pg in the league. Plus you have to remember, no one even know who danillo gallinari or andrea bargaini were until like 2 days before draft night when rumors began spilling over.



    I love the chatter, but im not paying attention to ratings, ty lawson could be another chris paul, or he could be another tyus edny.


    I say we just let the draft happen, and well come back to this three years from now.

  3. #3
    12th man
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Far far away from the orgy that consist of clyde, 8's, rady, smokes and rono
    Posts
    11,260
    Rep Power
    0

    Default

    This is a great find...and proves that Lawson is the most underrated prospect in NBA draft history.

  4. #4
    Veteran TunerAddict's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    NY
    Posts
    2,183
    Rep Power
    8

    Default

    Originally Posted by metrocard
    This is a great find...and proves that Lawson is the most underrated prospect in NBA draft history.
    Draft history?

    No way.

    Atleast he is projected to be a first rounder.

    Gilbert Arenas and Michael Redd were second rounders who went on to be allstars...

  5. #5
    Veteran ANU's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    1,068
    Rep Power
    8

    Default

    Originally Posted by metrocard
    This is a great find...and proves that Lawson is the most underrated prospect in NBA draft history.
    lol.

    I'm getting around lwson being knick, but come on........

  6. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    120
    Rep Power
    0

    Default

    finally some1 exposes derozen, and i like lawson, but i dont see him as "stronger chris paul" which i saw some1 call him. id rather have evans or rubio over him.

  7. #7
    Member DANUTZ39's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Posts
    451
    Rep Power
    6

    Default

    Hollinger's rating system has proved to be pretty accurate:

    This is more evidence that Ty Lawson will be an excellent NBA player. It also backs up Derozan being a bust. Obviously you can't go purely off this rating system, but it's very interesting to see what the numbers say.
    This is not a knack on ty lawson ( I do belive he is 6-10 material and probably 2 or 3 best point guard in this draft) but I don't give a **** on what hollinger and his stupid ratings says. To have derozan rated at 54 and some texax junior named Chinemelu Elonu or other nobodys ahead of him say a lot abot this mfuker. Maybe derozan will never become an all star in the nba but he s not like he is rated top five pick but more like 9-12. This guy(hollinger) is the same mfuker that has our Knicks team ranked #16 on all time list. Ahead of us are teams like the suns, indiana, heat, magic, jazz, blazers, bucs and oklahoma. So this guy is fked in the head.

    I agree with his first 1-2 selections and to some degree with his 3-4 selections. Detroit can also be mention in the discussion but none of the other teams. The way I see it is lakers and celtics and then more or less a tie between the knicks, chicago, spurs, detroit with the rockets and philly coming after. Let see

    Chicago were nobodys before MJ( when he retired first time they lost too) and and after.

    Spurs is the same TD all the way. They will go back to be nobodys in a year or two without TD and Ginnobli.

    Detroit were good in the late 80's early 90's and again early this decade because the whole eastern conference was bad.

    Not to mention out of the 50 greatest players at least 5 or 10% played for the Knicks: Reed, Frazier, Ewing, Earl Monroe, Lucas, DeBusschere.

    So all I'm saying fk this moron and his analisys.

    PS. Like I said this post has nothing to do with Lawson ( I do think he is (6-10 material) but rather withh that moron, hollinger.




    Hollinger TOP 10 Teams

    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    INSIDER

    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  8. #8
    Hannibal Lecter TR1LL10N's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Dark side of the Moon
    Posts
    2,743
    Rep Power
    11

    Default

    Originally Posted by DANUTZ39
    This is not a knack on ty lawson ( I do belive he is 6-10 material and probably 2 or 3 best point guard in this draft) but I don't give a **** on what hollinger and his stupid ratings says. To have derozan rated at 54 and some texax junior named Chinemelu Elonu or other nobodys ahead of him say a lot abot this mfuker. Maybe derozan will never become an all star in the nba but he s not like he is rated top five pick but more like 9-12. This guy(hollinger) is the same mfuker that has our Knicks team ranked #16 on all time list. Ahead of us are teams like the suns, indiana, heat, magic, jazz, blazers, bucs and oklahoma. So this guy is fked in the head.

    I agree with his first 1-2 selections and to some degree with his 3-4 selections. Detroit can also be mention in the discussion but none of the other teams. The way I see it is lakers and celtics and then more or less a tie between the knicks, chicago, spurs, detroit with the rockets and philly coming after. Let see

    Chicago were nobodys before MJ( when he retired first time they lost too) and and after.

    Spurs is the same TD all the way. They will go back to be nobodys in a year or two without TD and Ginnobli.

    Detroit were good in the late 80's early 90's and again early this decade because the whole eastern conference was bad.

    Not to mention out of the 50 greatest players at least 5 or 10% played for the Knicks: Reed, Frazier, Ewing, Earl Monroe, Lucas, DeBusschere.

    So all I'm saying fk this moron and his analisys.

    PS. Like I said this post has nothing to do with Lawson ( I do think he is (6-10 material) but rather withh that moron, hollinger.




    Hollinger TOP 10 Teams
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    INSIDER
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    Yea, he is fukin idiot...How can he have the Knicks behind teams like Orlando, Indiana and Miami just for starters? Further I would definitely put Chicago before the Spurs and Detroit and NY need to be bumped way up into the top 5-10 at the very least.

    I would go:

    Boston
    Lakers
    Chicago
    Philly
    NY
    etc
    etc

    I combine history with playoff success. Yes the Spurs have more titles but they lack culture and history.
    Last edited by TR1LL10N; Jun 19, 2009 at 14:45.

  9. #9
    The Knicks are Back DaTPRiNCE's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Brooklyn N.Y.........Alexandria,Egypt in the blood
    Posts
    3,862
    Rep Power
    11

    Default

    Originally Posted by metrocard
    This is a great find...and proves that Lawson is the most underrated prospect in NBA draft history.
    yea metro i really hope we draft him he's what we need.

  10. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    120
    Rep Power
    0

    Default

    we prob arent in 5-10 because the isiah era has been that terrible

  11. #11
    Veteran mafra's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    2,312
    Rep Power
    10

    Default

    Man, the NEWSDAY blog (Kahn) keeps harping about Jrue Hiliday, as being our backup plan if Curry is gone.

    LORD HELP US!

    NO WAY I take Holliday over Lawson or even Terrence Williams.

    ANy thoughts on Holliday? I saw nothing from him last year? I would even take Henderson over him.... Flynn.... Almost anyone.

    If we draft Jennings or Holliday, I'll be very upset. After passing on eric Gordon last year, if we go Jrue Holliday.... Walsh would have set this franchise back another 5-10 years.

  12. #12
    Member DANUTZ39's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Posts
    451
    Rep Power
    6

    Default

    Originally Posted by dpryde
    we prob arent in 5-10 because the isiah era has been that terrible
    Isaiah era was only 5 years out of 50.

    Knicks were very good in the 70's bad in the 80's good again in the 90's and sucked from 2000 till now. Granted we won only 2 titles more than 30 years ago but went to the finals 5 times. Twice in the 90's when it happend to be the decade of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler and Tim Duncan in 99. We only had Ewing and and few second tier stars. Had we had a good PG we would of won in 94 for sure and maybe few times that decade.

  13. #13
    The One and Only KING~POETIQ's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Queens the Foundation
    Posts
    1,807
    Rep Power
    7

    Default

    the draft rater is just one more thing that proves how much of a sure thing Lawson is. Instead of some other picks who you're hoping will become great, with Lawson, you know you're getting a great player who will contribute right away. He will get our team to the playoffs if we draft him. I don't think you can say that about other players (besides a griffin or rubio, who most likely won't be there at 8).

  14. #14
    I got Soul StreetDreams21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Vegas/NY
    Posts
    1,404
    Rep Power
    8

    Default

    Originally Posted by DANUTZ39
    This is not a knack on ty lawson ( I do belive he is 6-10 material and probably 2 or 3 best point guard in this draft) but I don't give a **** on what hollinger and his stupid ratings says. To have derozan rated at 54 and some texax junior named Chinemelu Elonu or other nobodys ahead of him say a lot abot this mfuker. Maybe derozan will never become an all star in the nba but he s not like he is rated top five pick but more like 9-12. This guy(hollinger) is the same mfuker that has our Knicks team ranked #16 on all time list. Ahead of us are teams like the suns, indiana, heat, magic, jazz, blazers, bucs and oklahoma. So this guy is fked in the head.

    I agree with his first 1-2 selections and to some degree with his 3-4 selections. Detroit can also be mention in the discussion but none of the other teams. The way I see it is lakers and celtics and then more or less a tie between the knicks, chicago, spurs, detroit with the rockets and philly coming after. Let see

    Chicago were nobodys before MJ( when he retired first time they lost too) and and after.

    Spurs is the same TD all the way. They will go back to be nobodys in a year or two without TD and Ginnobli.

    Detroit were good in the late 80's early 90's and again early this decade because the whole eastern conference was bad.

    Not to mention out of the 50 greatest players at least 5 or 10% played for the Knicks: Reed, Frazier, Ewing, Earl Monroe, Lucas, DeBusschere.

    So all I'm saying fk this moron and his analisys.

    PS. Like I said this post has nothing to do with Lawson ( I do think he is (6-10 material) but rather withh that moron, hollinger.




    Hollinger TOP 10 Teams
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    INSIDER
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    • [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
    i dont get #12. The sonics won one ring in the whole period given. They were never able to reflect their regular season success on the playoffs (For reference see Dikembe Mutombo). As far as i see, this is only based off regular season success, because our best record was 60-22. Almost all of the teams in the top 10 have gone 63-19 more than twice. And the nets went to the finals twice, and if you count their aba days, they won 5 rings total. They would be WAY higher than 21.

    Id have the knicks around 6 ishh, and the rockets right after. I dontl ike this list much at all, except the bottom 10....

  15. #15
    Newbie
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    16
    Rep Power
    0

    Nyk Logo Knicks Draft Pick

    I understand why people make a point about picking Lawson but remember even though Lawson is great player he's injury prone. Stephen Curry is somewhat overated but he still good and is a great fit in our system. Brandon Jennings is also a good fit but his problem is that he has a bad attitude. Jennings is another example of Stephon Marbury. Jrue Holiday is a average pg more of a combo guard but he hasn't proved himself much. I believe Darren Collison is the one who should be mention ahead of Holiday. Our choices right now are Rubio, Evans, or Curry.

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 2
    Last Post: May 07, 2009, 16:50
  2. Donnie Walsh draft record
    By Kiyaman in forum NY Knicks
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: Jun 24, 2008, 03:06
  3. Replies: 22
    Last Post: May 27, 2008, 18:29
  4. Knicks Draft: Media Feedback
    By Die Dolan Die in forum NY Knicks
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: Jul 01, 2006, 05:04

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •