Originally Posted by
nuckles2k2
I find it funny that baseball analysts are saying that the Dodgers will let the White Sox straight up claim Manny and not look for any compensation because they don't want to try to work a trade and let. Manny. take. contol. of. the. situation. with. his. NTC. But when it comes to Melo being able to force teams to back out of a trade (or blocking/vetoing it like a NTC) by not signing the extension and not guaranteeing his services for more than one season...suddenly it's not a similar situation because random people proclaim it's not. According to people on here, he has no control, even though he can use the extension like a NTC and block trades...he's powerless. Surely he can't attempt to veto every single trade offered until the team he wants to go to makes an offer or he walks.
And while there's some uncertainty about the new CBA, people are acting like they've never heard of unions negotiating on the behalf of their members. The NBAPA isn't gonna let the owners take huge chunks of money out of the players' pockets. Hell they were fighting like hell to make sure that Washington couldn't walk away from Arenas' contract when he was suspended. But suddenly they're gonna give in and say "ok, cut salaries buy about $5mil?" Nah. The new max deal isn't gonna go down to $10mil, there will be a lockout before that happens.
The main issue with the new CBA will be contract length, not contract worth. And owners want more control over the situation, and not get stuck under lengthy expensive deals. And I'm sure they want more control over keeping their FA eligible stars. It gets expensive to have to sit back and wait while a fully guaranteed 5-6 year max deal runs out so you can make a move (that's why you obviously have salary dumping ...but even that can be costly if your building efforts don't pan out and you have a sub par team.) Players want to keep their high salaries and option years, owners want to keep star players around but also not get stuck with long bad deals for bad players (we know a thing or two about that.)
Owners are going to want to wrestle some control away from players: non-guaranteed contracts, less years on a max deal (if contracts remain guaranteed...which they in all likelyhood will) take away player options, lower annual increases, etc. The NBAPA will not let them take away guaranteed deals, and they'll negotiate everything else.
So the only threat to Melo with the new CBA is the uncertainty. But the max contract isn't gonna go from roughly $14-16mil in the first season, down to $9-10. That's when the union says "**** this, lockout." And if that's the case, it doesn't matter what deal Melo has because there won't be any basketball for at least a season.