Chandler & Melo some Problems
It is hard tp predict "cap" problems going forward without the benefit of a Collective Bargaining Agreement. For purposes of initial consideration, let us assume that the new one will be essentially identical to what is currently in existence.
Although I get different numbers from different sites, it appears that the Knicks salaries for 2011-12 are about $44M and change. It is unclear that Fields has a guaranteed salary but he is certainly a keeper at $788,000. Although some of the posters have suggested that Mozgov's 2011-12 salary is not guaranteed, I believe it is and every salary site I have looked at suggests that it is. He had a very big buy-out and thus at least two years of his contract is guaranteed. His 2011-12 amount is about $2.566M on one site, $3.2M on a second site and $3.343M on a third site. Chandler will be a restricted free agent. His qualifying offer numbers range from $2.53M on one site to $3.099M on two other sites. Turiaf has a player option number at $4.1M on one site and $4.36 on the other two. Randolph is in at a consistent $2.9M. Douglas is in at a consistent $1.145M. Gallinari is at $3.49M on one site and $4.19M on the two other sites. I tend to trust the sites with the higher numbers. For present purposes, however, the differences do not matter.
Amare's salary next year will be $18.2M. Felton's salary will be $7.5M. Chandler's qualifying offer will count at $3.099M. Douglas is in at $1.145M. Fields is in at $788K. Walker's $916M salary may not be guaranteed. It is unclear from the sites whether there are team options for Gallo's $4.19M and AR's $2.91M, but if we do not keep them, we will certainly use them in trades. Their contracts will not be "renounced."
No matter how we slice it, as matters now stand we are looking at about $44M in salaries for 2011-12. The current cap number is $58.044M.
if we trade for Melo, it will be because Melo wants/demands the max contract that Denver has offered. He can only get this with a sign and trade. As I understand the contract offer, it would call for $17.686M next year, and something in the Amar'e range of $19+M in 2012-13; $21+M in 2013-14; and $23+M in 2014-15.
If we were to trade for Melo, then his contract, plus Amar'e's contract, and Felton's contract would put us over $43M. We will have Chandler's Bird rights, so we will be able to sign him, but as a restricted free agent he will certainly have offers North of $10M a year. If we were to add just $10M to $43M we will be over $53M for those 4 players. We will have some serious cap problems for several years.
If we are lucky enough to sign Melo as a free agent, even if we count Chandler only at his qualifying offer number and then work things out with him with our Bird rights after we sign Melo, we are going to have to eliminate some of our contracts without taking equivalent contract amounts back in order to pay him whatever the allowable max will be. No matter what, we will have serious cap problems going forward and unless we get lucky somewhere we will remain in need of a big man.
In any event, if Walsh means what he says -- that he will sign Chandler (and keep him) -- either we do not get Melo, or Gallo and AR are certainly someplace else. Even if we do not get Melo, Gallo and AR are likely assets in a trade for a promising -- or proven-- big man.
I do not believe we need Melo, but i think Walsh would hate to see him go to the Nets.
On another note, perhaps related, I really like Gallo, but there is currently no question that Chandler is the more versatile and productive player. Given a choice, i do not believe there would be a single GM who would not choose Chandler over Gallo. But this observation should not diminish Gallo's overall value. He is not Amar'e either.
Gallo suffers from a lack of athleticism, but he compensates pretty well. i expect him to be a very solid player for many years. Because of his lack of athleticism, it will take him some time to adjust the talents he does have and to mold an effective game compromised by his lack of quickness. He will find a way. He appears to be a very good team player and a very good team mate. Despite the MSG marketing that has always featured him too prominently, he did not ask for it. His shot is going to come. He will get stronger. He will eliminate his body control awkwardness
by learniing his limits. Some day he might well prove to be more valuable than Chandler, but I am not prepared to bet on that today.
