Jeremy Lin

What to do with Lin?

  • Let him walk

    Votes: 16 28.6%
  • Resign him and keep him long term

    Votes: 27 48.2%
  • Resign him and trade him January 2013 with Amare

    Votes: 13 23.2%

  • Total voters
    56

Paul1355

All Star
This post is brilliant. The new CBA was supposedly designed to make it so that dead weight players like Eddy Curry didn't completely kill teams' chances to keep themselves competitive, and that's an excellent provision. Is there are a limit to the number of times the Knicks can use that stretch provision? If they use it on Jeremy Lin in Year 3 of his contract all they gotta do is make sure they're 5 million under the cap in Year 4 and then they don't pay any luxury tax for his contract that year at all so it's not that big a deal.

They can trade him, they can use this provision, or they can trade somebody else. Brilliant...only a complete idiot would refuse to match at this point.

the stretch provision really blows away the argument that it is not worth paying Lin 14 mil in year 3....it gives us flexibility in case we can't trade him. Can I get a rep point for finding this? lol
 

LINvincible

Benchwarmer
From John Hollinger at ESPN....

"Sources say Knicks GM Glen Grunwald was infuriated by the Rockets' manipulation of the rules. When Lin's offer sheet arrived at the team's offices in New York City, staffers insisted that it needed to go to Grunwald personally.

But Grunwald wasn't in New York -- he was in Las Vegas attending the NBA Summer League. The same sources say Grunwald then dodged the delivery for a day and a half, finally accepting it on Saturday. Since league rules say the clock doesn't start on an offer sheet until it is received by the player's prior team, this gave the Knicks until Tuesday night to decide whether to keep Lin on the Knicks and accept the luxury-tax consequences.

In the meantime the Knicks traded for Felton -- presumably as a replacement for Lin to pair with new signee Jason Kidd -- and let it be known that they have decided not to match Houston's offer.

So are the Knicks serious, or is this just an outburst before they settle down, match the offer and bring Lin back to the Big Apple?

Logic dictates that it's actually the latter.

[+] Enlarge
Howard Smith/US Presswire
Lin's worth even more to the Knicks off the court than he is on.
Sure, the prospect of paying a fortune in additional luxury tax has to make the Knicks stop and think. But Lin is a moneymaking machine. Lin puts people in seats, both at home and on the road, and he is a merchandising bonanza. The stock of Knicks parent company MSG is up 20 percent since Linsanity began, with Nate Silver of the New York Times reporting that MSG's market capitalization has gained $600 million since that fateful day last February when Lin took over as the Knicks' starting point guard.

So what happens to MSG if the Knicks fail to retain Lin? Silver continued, saying, "as of late Monday morning, on the mere possibility that Lin might not be re-signed, MSG stock had lost about $50 million in market value." This was on a rumor -- imagine what the company's losses will be if losing Lin becomes a reality.

So if Lin plays up to his potential, he should more than make up for what it costs the Knicks to keep him. But what if Lin doesn't pan out? What if his 26-game sample proves to be an illusion, and he ends up as yet another flash in the pan? Will the Knicks be stuck with an enormous tax bill for an unproductive player?

If worse comes to worst, another new rule can help the team out. The "stretch provision" allows a team to waive a player and extend his salary payments over twice the number of remaining seasons, plus one. So if Lin is waived with one season remaining on his contract, he would be paid his salary over three years.

Here's the important part -- teams also may elect to stretch a waived player's salary-cap hit over the same number of years. So if Lin proves to be a disaster over the next two seasons, the Knicks can waive him, stretch the payment of his $14.8 million salary over three years, and reduce his salary-cap amount to about $4.9 million in each season
. This would reduce the team's tax bill significantly. If the Knicks are right at the tax line, a $4.9 million salary would translate to a $7.35 million tax bill. This is much more palatable.

In sum, Lin will continue to be a financial bonanza if he keeps playing up to his potential. If he ends up being a bust, the Knicks have the means to mitigate the damage. The potential upside is well worth the risk.

So logic dictates that sometime before midnight Tuesday night, the Knicks will inform the league that they are matching the Rockets' offer, and Jeremy Lin will remain a member of the Knicks.

As much as keeping Lin will cost them, losing him will cost more."

:thumbsup:
Awesome info. Thanks for posting.
 

WeReady

Benchwarmer
Basically, Stephen A and Frank Isola have been tweeting and talking about how Lin is soft for not playing in the playoffs last season despite being, "85% healthy," and that this is one of the reasons the Knicks wouldn't match the offer.... Of course, neither of these guys has a medical degree and personally examined Lin or i guess understands how coming back from injury works...You can be "85%" and still not ready to play in an NBA game, for example, if you are still have instability making a lateral cut. Meniscus injuries don't heal fast (I have been around and seen many), but who cares, since it is a good story to run on and say he could have played but decided not, and apparently plenty of people (as exemplified by some posters on this board) will still believe you are credible.

That's why that Q&A you posted may have been the first real good journalism that i've seen on this issue...Somebody actually bothered to read the CBA and remove some misinformation that is floating around.

Your also missing the most important point of the Knicks FO told him to sit out because they didn't want jeremy risk re-injury and harm their cash cow

"can you give 15 mins" -SAS SHM:barf:
 
"If worse comes to worst, another new rule can help the team out. The "stretch provision" allows a team to waive a player and extend his salary payments over twice the number of remaining seasons, plus one. So if Lin is waived with one season remaining on his contract, he would be paid his salary over three years.

Here's the important part -- teams also may elect to stretch a waived player's salary-cap hit over the same number of years. So if Lin proves to be a disaster over the next two seasons, the Knicks can waive him, stretch the payment of his $14.8 million salary over three years, and reduce his salary-cap amount to about $4.9 million in each season."

Thanks for posting this, Paul. truly.
 

Paul1355

All Star
"If worse comes to worst, another new rule can help the team out. The "stretch provision" allows a team to waive a player and extend his salary payments over twice the number of remaining seasons, plus one. So if Lin is waived with one season remaining on his contract, he would be paid his salary over three years.

Here's the important part -- teams also may elect to stretch a waived player's salary-cap hit over the same number of years. So if Lin proves to be a disaster over the next two seasons, the Knicks can waive him, stretch the payment of his $14.8 million salary over three years, and reduce his salary-cap amount to about $4.9 million in each season."

Thanks for posting this, Paul. truly.
your welcome brother, i guess it does pay off to have espn insider lol

This makes the Lin investment worth it
 

wynton

Rookie
Hollinger is correct. So is Nate Silver and countless others who have pointed out that a cost/benefit analysis favors keeping Lin.

Does that really give anyone confidence Dolan will make the rational decision?
 

SSj4Wingzero

All Star
the stretch provision really blows away the argument that it is not worth paying Lin 14 mil in year 3....it gives us flexibility in case we can't trade him. Can I get a rep point for finding this? lol

Apparently I have to spread some around first, let me see what I can do
 

KingCharles34

All Star
Great article Paul. Looks like theres an ESPN insider article saying basically the same thing written by Larry Coon (no 'cism). With this new bit of information it would be really dumb not to re-sign him, I think i was overlooking the way we'd have road games and the road teams would be cheering for us, or mainly Lin. Same thing sorta, but I hope the Knicks wait until 11:58pm ET to sign that contract just to stick it to the houston C*cksh*ts
 

LINvincible

Benchwarmer
If it isn't about the money based on the provision....
Then what is it?

The knee isn't healing right?
Lin slept with Dolan's wife?
Melo crying that this is a Lin town?
Melo slept with Dolan's wife then lied to Dolan that it was Lin instead?

WHAT IS IT!
OH THE HORROR and SUSPENSE!
 

Hayato

Benchwarmer
This post is brilliant. The new CBA was supposedly designed to make it so that dead weight players like Eddy Curry didn't completely kill teams' chances to keep themselves competitive, and that's an excellent provision. Is there are a limit to the number of times the Knicks can use that stretch provision? If they use it on Jeremy Lin in Year 3 of his contract all they gotta do is make sure they're 5 million under the cap in Year 4 and then they don't pay any luxury tax for his contract that year at all so it's not that big a deal.

They can trade him, they can use this provision, or they can trade somebody else. Brilliant...only a complete idiot would refuse to match at this point.


wait so if we waive him before year 3, we pay lin 4.9 mil each year for the next 3 years for not playing with us?
 

nyk_nyk

All Star
Howard Smith/US Presswire
Lin's worth even more to the Knicks off the court than he is on.
Sure, the prospect of paying a fortune in additional luxury tax has to make the Knicks stop and think. But Lin is a moneymaking machine. Lin puts people in seats, both at home and on the road, and he is a merchandising bonanza. The stock of Knicks parent company MSG is up 20 percent since Linsanity began, with Nate Silver of the New York Times reporting that MSG's market capitalization has gained $600 million since that fateful day last February when Lin took over as the Knicks' starting point guard.

So what happens to MSG if the Knicks fail to retain Lin? Silver continued, saying, "as of late Monday morning, on the mere possibility that Lin might not be re-signed, MSG stock had lost about $50 million in market value." This was on a rumor -- imagine what the company's losses will be if losing Lin becomes a reality.

Some mis-information here. Lin doesn't really affect seats at home because the Garden is full with or without him. The crowd he attracts on the road attribute to that particular teams revenue. Also, while Linsanity did affect MSG's market cap, there are so many other factors that go into the value of a stock from a company with as much subsidiaries as MSG.

If the Knicks win, it benefits MSG's business no matter who the pg is.

Lastly, for those who think Lin makes the franchise money off jersey sales, you're wrong. Those revenues are considered league wide and are part of the player/owner split. The biggest thing Lin did for MSG in his time here was to expedite the Time Warner deal.
 

LINvincible

Benchwarmer
Some mis-information here. Lin doesn't really affect seats at home because the Garden is full with or without him. The crowd he attracts on the road attribute to that particular teams revenue. Also, while Linsanity did affect MSG's market cap, there are so many other factors that go into the value of a stock from a company with as much subsidiaries as MSG.

If the Knicks win, it benefits MSG's business no matter who the pg is.

Lastly, for those who think Lin makes the franchise money off jersey sales, you're wrong. Those revenues are considered league wide and are part of the player/owner split. The biggest thing Lin did for MSG in his time here was to expedite the Time Warner deal.

What about the deals to air MSG in Asia? And the 30% increase in season ticket sales when LinSanity took off. With MSG TV ratings up 70%, how much ad revenues were brought in due to the increase TV ratings.
 

nyk_nyk

All Star
What about the deals to air MSG in Asia? And the 30% increase in season ticket sales when LinSanity took off. With MSG TV ratings up 70%, how much ad revenues were brought in due to the increase TV ratings.

Ticket prices were raised when Melo got here. I'll give you the TV rating increase though.

I'm sorry but too many people are focused on the $$$ Dolan will make but I hardly hear anything about the team's success. I want to watch a good team compete for a title. All the money going up to the Dolans means very little to me.

Bottom line, keep Lin if you think he can be the guy to lead you to a title. If not, move on with the pieces you have.
 

Paul1355

All Star
Great article Paul. Looks like theres an ESPN insider article saying basically the same thing written by Larry Coon (no 'cism). With this new bit of information it would be really dumb not to re-sign him, I think i was overlooking the way we'd have road games and the road teams would be cheering for us, or mainly Lin. Same thing sorta, but I hope the Knicks wait until 11:58pm ET to sign that contract just to stick it to the houston C*cksh*ts

I copy and pasted the Larry Coon insider article lol
 

Uncle Robo

Benchwarmer
Ticket prices were raised again for this coming season (after Linsanity). And true for the most part, the Garden is full. But MSG does sell courtside seats and suites on a per game basis. Lin packed the house with celebs after Feb. There would be no Chinese Ads for Coke or Taiwan Tourism at the Garden if not for Lin. Seems you're the one misinformed.

Lin's a special case because you have to account for the money he brings in as well as his on court performance.

Ticket prices were raised when Melo got here. I'll give you the TV rating increase though.

I'm sorry but too many people are focused on the $$$ Dolan will make but I hardly hear anything about the team's success. I want to watch a good team compete for a title. All the money going up to the Dolans means very little to me.

Bottom line, keep Lin if you think he can be the guy to lead you to a title. If not, move on with the pieces you have.
 
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