ESPN Insider: Lin vs. Felton

tiger0330

Legend
Nothing really new, Felton reverting back to the mean and Lin improving. Kind of deadlocked as to who would be the better PG for the Knicks. Just sharing since most of you don't have Insider.

Revisiting Lin vs. Felton decision


Originally Published: February 27, 2013
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider


Elsa/Getty ImagesFelton is averaging 14.7 points and 6.0 assists, while Lin is producing 12.7 and 6.2.
From the standpoint of the New York Knicks, hoping to justify their decision to let Jeremy Lin leave in free agency and replace him at point guard with Raymond Felton, this season couldn't have started any better. Felton was excellent during the month of November as the Knicks got off to a surprising start, while Lin struggled to find his place next to James Harden with the Houston Rockets.
Some three months later, it's worth revisiting the Lin decision. Felton's success, like his team's, has proved fleeting. Meanwhile, the Rockets and Lin are one of the league's hottest teams.
Misleading month

You remember November, right? President Barack Obama had just been re-elected, Manti Te'o was merely a linebacker in contention for the Heisman, and the Knicks were one of the NBA's best teams. Behind a flurry of 3-pointers and a smaller lineup with Carmelo Anthony at power forward, New York started the season 14-4. The Knicks capped that stretch with their second win over the Miami Heat and marked themselves as serious contenders in the Eastern Conference.



New York's backcourt of Felton and fellow newcomer Jason Kidd played a major role in the fast start. Felton made 40 percent of his 3s in November while averaging 14.6 points and 6.7 assists. Kidd was even better beyond the arc at nearly 49 percent. As a team, the Knicks shot 41.6 percent from 3-point range, powering the league's best offensive rating in the month.
Everyone said the shooting couldn't last, and it didn't. Since Dec. 1, New York has shot exactly the league average (35.8 percent) on 3-pointers. Felton, at 31.4 percent, has been even worse. The Knicks are still a very good offensive team, ranking sixth in points per possession from December onward, but not the juggernaut they once were.
By The Numbers


StatNovemberSince
NY ORating110.8 (1)107.3 (6)
HOU ORating102.8 (10)108.2 (4)
Felton WARP1.10.2
Lin WARP0.32.0


At the same time, as the chart shows, the Rockets were making the opposite transformation, with Lin as one of the leaders. As Houston has figured out how to utilize both Harden and Lin, the Rockets' offense has gone from solidly above average in November to elite. Lin's own statistics, as measured by wins above replacement, have seen a similar boost.
Knicks finding their level

The Knicks, it turns out, are who we thought they were. Since peaking at 14-4, they have consistently played at about a 45-win pace -- matching preseason expectations. Project that out through the rest of the schedule and New York figures to finish somewhere around 49 wins, which should be good for third in the East.
Fears that the crosstown rival Brooklyn Nets will come back to win the Atlantic Division are probably overstated. While the Nets have climbed within two games in the standings, their point differential is barely better than .500, suggesting they're likely to regress somewhat the rest of the way. The same is true of the Atlanta Hawks, who sit fifth, leaving only the Chicago Bulls with a healthy Derrick Rose as a serious threat to the Knicks' top-three seed.
Felton, it turns out, is also who we thought he was -- not quite as bad as he looked during his disastrous 2011-12 campaign in Portland, but not as good as he played during his first half-season in New York or the opening month this season. As much as Felton's playmaking and his ability to generate steals have helped the Knicks, he has had a tough time scoring efficiently since the 3s stopped falling. Felton is making just 42.4 percent of his 2-point attempts and has seen his true shooting percentage slip to 47.5 percent -- far worse than the league average of 53.2 percent.
Moving beyond Linsanity

For both the Knicks and Lin himself, Linsanity has become a distant memory. Gone are the headlines, the screaming fans and the incredible numbers Lin posted as the Knicks' go-to player last February. Instead of getting Linsanity, the Rockets ended up with Jeremy Lin, developing point guard.
Playing next to Harden, Lin isn't the focal point of the Houston offense the way he was during the stretch that made him a household name. However, he has defied critics by showing the ability to thrive in that smaller role. In part, that's because of the adjustments made by the Rockets' coaching staff. It also reflects Lin's 3-point shooting regressing to the mean. After shooting 26.3 percent from downtown in November, Lin is at 34.4 percent since, making him something of a threat when opponents leave him open.
The funny thing is Lin's 2012-13 stat line is relatively similar in many ways to what he did last year in New York. His effective field goal percentage, for example, is an identical .478. The difference in Lin's offense is entirely a matter of volume. He's down from using 28.1 percent of the Knicks' plays to 20 percent of Houston's, putting him precisely at the typical figure, and his assist rate has dropped by almost a third. Lin's overall performance, All-Star caliber in 2011-12's limited sample, is slightly below league average this season. That's a more sustainable level of play.
Looking ahead

Lin's ability to coexist with Harden, who doesn't use as many plays as Anthony but tends to dominate the ball to a greater extent, leads naturally to the question of whether Lin could have fit into an Anthony-centric offense at Madison Square Garden.
There are advantages to Lin's current situation. Houston's fast pace, and the sheer number of pick-and-rolls the Rockets run as the basis of their offense, give him more opportunity to play in space than he might have had in New York. Still, it's not clear that Felton is any better fit for the Knicks than Lin would have been. According to mySynergySports.com, the two players have been about equally effective on spot-up opportunities, with Lin averaging 0.91 points per shot to Felton's 0.95. Surprisingly, Lin is a much more frequent spot-up shooter.
We're also comparing these players as they are now, not as they will be at the end of the three-year contract Houston gave Lin. While Felton, 28, is likely to be about the same player at that point if not take a slight step backward, the 24-year-old Lin still has room to grow as an outside shooter and playmaker.
The Knicks won the early rounds of the Lin versus Felton decision. If Lin already has pulled even, however, there may be no question who the better choice was in a couple of years.
 
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erivera

Benchwarmer
the one thing that's not taken into account here is the pressure of the city. here lin would've been on billboards and doing commercials and appearances all the time. in houston he's probably doing a third of what he would've been doing here. for his sake, houston was probably a better fit for him due to the fact that it's just about basketball. in new york, the media would've always questioned him and wondered about how he fits with melo blah blah blah.
 

bigapple

Starter
Lin is driving into paint even with revers and also dont take dump shots and better court vision + he is faster
 

tiger0330

Legend
Interesting, he has us finishing with 45-50 wins and 3rd seed in the EC. Which means we can go 16-13, somewhat better than playing .500 ball (.551) and still get 3rd in the EC. The EC is still a weak conference.


Knicks finding their level


The Knicks, it turns out, are who we thought they were. Since peaking at 14-4, they have consistently played at about a 45-win pace -- matching preseason expectations. Project that out through the rest of the schedule and New York figures to finish somewhere around 49 wins, which should be good for third in the East.
Fears that the crosstown rival Brooklyn Nets will come back to win the Atlantic Division are probably overstated. While the Nets have climbed within two games in the standings, their point differential is barely better than .500, suggesting they're likely to regress somewhat the rest of the way. The same is true of the Atlanta Hawks, who sit fifth, leaving only the Chicago Bulls with a healthy Derrick Rose as a serious threat to the Knicks' top-three seed.
 

New New York

Quiet Storm
Lin is simply not a better player than Felton! Lin still can not create his own shot nor apply much pressure to opposing D's. people are still caught up in the Lin Brand name; now there are quite a few PG's I'd take over Felton but even more than I'd take over Lin. The thing is people see age and think that a player has potential to get so much better when in all actuality this could be as good as Lin will ever be. What has really improved in Lin's game this year? Now consider who is getting paid more and you see Felton clearly as the better value, not to mention who plays better against stiffer competition . Never mind last year's epic fail against The Heat, how has Lin done against them this year vs. Felton. this year? Teams are playing off Lin and daring him to beat them and occasionally it backfires but by and large it has been an affective practice...Lin plays in the backcourt with arguably the 2nd or 3rd best SG and teams are focusing on he and Parsons and living with Lin doing whatever! So ESPN "insider" can say what they want but look beyond Lin's inflated stats and you'll see he's still a very overrated player..I'm taking Ray all Day!!
 

New New York

Quiet Storm
6.2 assist from your PG on a uptempo team that is 2nd highest scoring team in the league...that's garbage! Felton gets almost as many in a half court slower pace squad
 

smokes

Huge Member
Lin is way better and I can't be bothered to read the whole thread/article so this may have been mentioned but I'm pretty sure this has something to do with Woody or Grunwald or Dolan wanting to cut ties with "D'Antoni players". What a shame.

However hindsight is 20/20, I must admit I was excited about Felton coming back to the Knicks after his great half season in 2010 and I was excited about him coming in 2010 prior to his arrival. I still believe he has it in him to be much better than he's playing now regardless of playing in an MDA system or not, I don't know if it's injuries or what that is limiting his ceiling right now but we all know he's a much more capable player than he has shown in recent months.
 

skisloper

Starter
Lin is simply not a better player than Felton! Lin still can not create his own shot nor apply much pressure to opposing D's. people are still caught up in the Lin Brand name; now there are quite a few PG's I'd take over Felton but even more than I'd take over Lin. The thing is people see age and think that a player has potential to get so much better when in all actuality this could be as good as Lin will ever be. What has really improved in Lin's game this year? Now consider who is getting paid more and you see Felton clearly as the better value, not to mention who plays better against stiffer competition . Never mind last year's epic fail against The Heat, how has Lin done against them this year vs. Felton. this year? Teams are playing off Lin and daring him to beat them and occasionally it backfires but by and large it has been an affective practice...Lin plays in the backcourt with arguably the 2nd or 3rd best SG and teams are focusing on he and Parsons and living with Lin doing whatever! So ESPN "insider" can say what they want but look beyond Lin's inflated stats and you'll see he's still a very overrated player..I'm taking Ray all Day!!


ZERO to due with hype.
You would be foolish to want Felton over LIN.
Remember its not other PG;s...its LIn or Felton...
its not age or what if's
Plain and simple LIN is better
 

Ghostowl

Benchwarmer
I've been watching Rockets games and I've noticed that Houston offense is not centered around the PG..meaning anyone can bring up the ball. A lot of the times, I've seen Harden just play the point, and a lot of the times I've seen Lin just bring up the ball and pass it to Harden to playmake.

Lin had a crappy start in Houston but he's averaging almost 15 points in a system recently where he doesnt get to touch the ball much or play the point. That's pretty damn impressive.

Houston's current system is not good for Lin and vice versa is true too. He's being used as a ball-deferring spot-up shooter who camps at 3. They're not using his penetration skills. Their coach is pretty bad lol. I would love to have Lin back here in NY as long as he can mesh with Melo.

He is better than Felton, no doubt about it. The only question is, which of the two PGs can mesh with Melo better?

Lin plays in the backcourt with arguably the 2nd or 3rd best SG and teams are focusing on he and Parsons and living with Lin doing whatever! So ESPN "insider" can say what they want but look beyond Lin's inflated stats and you'll see he's still a very overrated player..I'm taking Ray all Day!!

Lin's stats are actually the total opposite of inflated..the way his coach uses him in Rockets, really makes him suffer bad stats
 

smokes

Huge Member
^ indeed and they rarely sit Lin and Harden at the same time, when Lin sits they play Beverley/Harden and when Harden sits they play Lin/Delfino.

Lin is getting very little benefit if any from playing alongside Harden, I wrote a huge ass post about this months ago about how Harden and Lin are a terrible fit. I'd say Kevin McHale is actually doing a very good job with them given they should never have been paired together in the first place. He's making the best of a bad situation.

I'm sure the Rockets will look to offload Lin ASAP, unless they feel he's worth keeping from a marketing standpoint. Plus his contract would be very difficult to move.
 

metrocard

Legend
I agree with smokes, McHale is playing Lin and Harden to their strengths.

When you think about it, Lin is a PG who can drive to the basket and score buckets, and Harden is a SG who can do the same thing, except he shoots from anywhere and can pass very well for a SG.

They can play together but not the whole game, which is why a guy like Patrick Beverly or even guys like Kirk Hinrich or Shaun Livingston (who would be perfect fits in Houston) would help both Lin and Harden play their game.

I heard Rockets are interesting in smoke's boy Bynum and are ready to offer him a big contract in the off season.

Rockets have like a 5-7 year plan with Chandler/Harden/Robinson/Montiejunas being apart of the formula.

Haven't followed up on Houston as much, but Lin continues to improve by his 3rd year in his contract; Houston may re-sign him. He's a good player, a really good defender and he's explosive and inconsistant.

I believe he'll be a more consistant player by his 3-4 season in Houston. Imagine Jeff Teague who was erratic and now he's forming into an excellent PG.

Felton doesn't compare to Lin, Lin's defense alone > Felton's entire game.
 

smokes

Huge Member
^ I guess Bynum is their back up plan for D12. Honestly I wouldn't take either of them, they have Asik who is a great defender and can be a competent offensive player when he's on. He's still young and developing and should round out into a solid C in this league (Tyson/Okafor type).

Also Thomas Robinson who is their PF of the future. They need to find solid backups for these spots (Greg Smith is pretty poor).

Why would you want the drama of D12 or Bynum both of them thinking they should be the first option on their given team whilst playing alongside one of the best players in NBA history. How would either of them gel with Harden?

Lin/Beverley
Harden
Parsons/Delfino
Robinson
Asik

Pretty sick lineup if they can fill the reserve holes.
 

New New York

Quiet Storm
ZERO to due with hype.
You would be foolish to want Felton over LIN.
Remember its not other PG;s...its LIn or Felton...
its not age or what if's
Plain and simple LIN is better


Don't think I posed a single "what if" but lets talk facts?



Ok answer my question about Lin...how has he improved this year over last year? He still can not drive left, when he goes left he will either pull up and shoot, pass, or go back right! tell me one other NBA Starting PG with this fundamental problem!

Felton thrived in both Woodson and Dantoni's systems...uptempo and a grind game Felton is better

Felton is a better ball handler


Lin is a scoring PG but he sucks at shooting the ball and creating his own shot, he can not take a man off the dribble as good as Raymond can

Again Lin averages just 6 assist a game in the 2nd highest scoring offense in The NBA


Neither is my end all at the PG spot...but no way we have the record we have if Lin was our point!

As a Knick fan I certainly want more from Ray like most of you want, but we for sure would be demanding more for Lin if he
re-upped here this past summer. If he was giving us 12 and 6 and the numbers he is giving Hou. there would be Chris Paul thread and goofy ideas about how to get him here everyday!

Raymond is simply a good enough PG...nothing more...nothing less.

Houston would gladly trade Lin for either of the two PG's that they let go to sign Lin (Dragic and Lowry) Regardless of what they say they are not happy with Lin's production
 

SSj4Wingzero

All Star
Lin is a far better player. Lin is a more efficient scorer with better shot selection and has a lot of room to improve since he is, in effect, only a second-year player. Plus he's actually a pretty competent defender. He drives to the basket and gets to the line.

Felton, on the other hand, allows any scrub PG playing against the Knicks to put up Magic Johnson-type numbers, and his offense is worse than Lin's because his shot selection is terrible. There was a poster who just said that Lin couldn't penetrate...but Lin averages more free throw attempts per game than Felton does, indicating he's a much more effective slasher.

The only thing that Felton does better is he turns the ball over slightly less, but even then, I'll take Lin's defense and better shot selection anyday.
 

erivera

Benchwarmer
tony parker, chris paul, derron williams, drue holliday, rajan rondo, russell westbrook, derrick rose, steph curry, steve nash, kyrie irving, jose calderon, brandon jennings, grievis vasquez, mike conley, john wall, jarrett jack, andre miller, ty lawson, ricky rubio, damian lillard, eric bledsoe are all better than these two guys. this is a dumb argument. i'd take any of these guys over the two guys we're discussing. lol
 
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