The top 3 are my top 3 for ROY this year, Simmons was my choice to win it but I love Donovan Mitchell, just a fun player to watch. DSJ is not on the list but neither is Frank. In DSJ case he's been give plenty of opportunity to compete for ROY but hasn't risen to the occasion like Mitchell, Tatum and Simmons but the Knicks are bringing Ntilikina along slowly hampering his chances of winning the best rookie honors. I hope that changes this season, give him more minutes, a starting role and a chance to compete for ROY.
Ben Simmons or Jayson Tatum? What about Donovan Mitchell? Where do Lonzo Ball and fellow Lakers rookie Kyle Kuzma land?
In the first incarnation of ESPN Insider's rookie rankings, I break down the top 10 first-year players in terms of how much they've done to help their teams win so far with guidance from advanced statistics. And while that process might mean some surprising results, it also confirms conventional wisdom about the top players in what has so far been a strong rookie class.
[h=3]1. Ben Simmons | PG | Philadelphia 76ers[/h]After an incredible start, Simmons has slowed down a bit in December, becoming more of a playmaker than scorer. Simmons is averaging just 13.2 points per 36 minutes this month, down from 18.8 beforehand, largely because he's attempting fewer shots. At the same time, Simmons' assist rate is up to 8.7 per 36 minutes. So while Simmons' versatility index has declined slightly, it's still the best on record for a rookie.
That versatility is a big factor in Simmons rating as the league's best rookie in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) (plus-2.5 points per 100 possessions). When it comes to value, Simmons' durability is also a plus. He's averaging 36.7 minutes per game, which would be the most for a rookie since Damian Lillard in 2012-13 (38.6).
[h=3]2. Jayson Tatum | SF | Boston Celtics[/h]Simmons' coming back to the pack has helped Tatum make this a two-man race for Rookie of the Year at this point. He's actually ahead of Simmons in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric, though Simmons has the advantage in Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus stat as well as RPM.
Of course, Tatum is almost certainly due for some regression of his own from 3-point range. He continues to shoot a league-high 51.5 percent on 3s, a rate that would be hard to sustain for anyone, let alone a rookie who shot just 34.2 percent from the shorter NCAA line last season. (Amazingly, Tatum has been even better on 3s in December than the season's first six weeks, hitting nearly 59 percent of them.)
However, Tatum has been good enough elsewhere -- making better than 50 percent of his 2s while attempting four free throws for every 10 field goal attempts and making them at an 83.6 percent clip -- to remain efficient even when his 3-point shooting inevitably drops off. Tatum has also proved a quick study as part of the NBA's best defense.
[h=3]3. Donovan Mitchell | G | Utah Jazz[/h]Having joined a team in desperate need of shot creation after losing Gordon Hayward to the Celtics, Mitchell is carrying an unusually heavy load for a rookie. The 28.9 percent of the Jazz's plays that Mitchell is using with a shot attempt, trip to the free throw line or turnover is one of the highest rates for a rookie since player turnovers were first tracked in 1977-78.
[h=2]Highest usage rates, rookies[/h]
Player Season Team Usage Joel Embiid 2016-17 PHI .362 Ben Gordon 2004-05 CHI .319 Mark Aguirre 1981-82 DAL .298 Michael Jordan 1984-85 CHI .298 Glenn Robinson 1994-95 MIL .291 Allen Iverson 1996-97 PHI .290 Donovan Mitchell 2017-18 UTA .289 Kyrie Irving 2011-12 CLE .289 Ron Harper 1986-87 CLE .289