ESPN Insider trade grades.
The deal
Knicks get:[FONT="] Forward Johnny O'Bryant, two future second-round picks[/FONT]
Hornets get:[FONT="] Center Willy Hernangomez[/FONT]
Charlotte Hornets:[FONT="] B[/FONT]
[FONT="]At first blush, this trade doesn't look like much[/FONT][FONT="] of a win for Hernangomez, whose representatives recently expressed to the Knick[/FONT][FONT="]s their displeasure with his reduced role this season according to ESPN's Ian Begley. Having started 22 games and played 18.4 minutes per game last season, when he made the All-Rookie First Team, Hernangomez had been limited to 233 minutes total so far this year after New York added Enes Kanter as a starting center.[/FONT]
[FONT="]So the Knicks fulfilled Hernangomez's wishes ... an[/FONT][FONT="]d traded him to a team with an even more crowded depth chart at center, where Charlotte already has a player with extensive starting experience (Cody Zeller) backing up Dwight Howard.[/FONT]
[FONT="]My guess is the Hornets see Hernangomez and Zeller as mobile enough to play with each other. Hernangomez has played occasionally at power forward. According to NBA Advanced Stats, he played 215 min[/FONT][FONT="]utes in 2016-17 with one of New York's other centers (Joakim Noah, Kyle O'Quinn and Marshall Plumlee). And Zeller began his career playing power forward next to Al Jefferson and Bismack Biyombo.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Nonetheless, an Hernangomez-Zeller duo would be light on perimeter shooting for a modern frontcourt. Hernangomez has made just 29 shots outside the paint in his career, according to Second Spectrum data powered by NBA Advanced Stats, shooting such attempts at a 33.3 percent clip. Zeller ha[/FONT][FONT="]s made 28 of them over the same timeframe, shooting 34.6 percent. Howard, at 34, has actually made more shots outside the paint the last two seasons than either of his backups, though at a weaker percentage (28.3 percent).[/FONT]
[FONT="]If Charlotte finds Hernangomez and Zeller can't play together, that would be disappointing for the player but not the end of the world for the team. After all, Hernangomez could still be injury insurance for Zeller, who missed nearly two months after undergoing surgery to repair a torn menisc[/FONT][FONT="]us in early December. Adding Howard meant the Hornets were able to stay afloa[/FONT][FONT="]t[/FONT][FONT="] without Zeller after going 3-17 in games he missed during 2016-17. Still, with [/FONT][FONT="]O[/FONT][FONT="]'Bryant serving as the third center, Charlotte has been outscored by 7.2 points per 100 possessions with both Howard and Zeller on the bench. Hernangomez should [/FONT][FONT="]be able to help there.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In the long run, Hernangomez could be much more valuable to the Hornets when Howard's contract ends after the 2018-19 season. By that point, Hernangomez will still be playing on the four-year deal he signed with the Knicks last summer, which pays him just $1.5 million in 2018-19 and $1.7 million in 2019-20. For a Charlotte team skirting the luxury tax, having cost-controlled talent like Hernangomez is hugely valuable.[/FONT]
New York Knicks:[FONT="] C[/FONT]
[FONT="]It's hard to blame anybody for Hernangomez falling out of favor in New York. He's played well when given minutes, shooting a higher percentage on 2-point attempts than he did as a rookie (60.5 percent) though rebounding worse. The Knicks didn't exactly plan to add a center ahead of him, but Kanter was the logical return in the Carmelo Anthony trade and played well in the role Hernangomez[/FONT][FONT="] had filled as a rebounder and finisher next to Kristaps Porzingis. (Alas, that role won't be available to Kanter either for the remainder of the season after Porzingis tore his ACL Tuesday.)[/FONT]
[FONT="]What does surprise me is Begley's reporting that New York is still looking for a taker for backup center Kyle O'Quinn ahead of Thursday's trade d[/FONT][FONT="]eadline. Had the Knicks been able to trade O'Quinn, they could simply have moved Hernangomez back into the rotation and everybody probably would have ended up happy. My original thought about this deal was it suggested New York had concluded there wasn't a reasonable deal for O'Quinn to be had before the deadline.[/FONT]
[FONT="]It's also possible O'Quinn could have resolved the dilemma by decli[/FONT][FONT="]ning his $4.3 million player option for 2018-19 and hitting free agency this summer. Kanter also has a player option for 2018-19, though since his is so rich ($18.6 million), he's likely to exercise it. That does mean the Knicks now have only Noah signed to play center beyond the 2018-19 season, when Hernangomez still would have been on his minimum deal.[/FONT]
[FONT="]One interesting question is whether New York's thinking was informed by Porzingis' untimely ACL injury. As I noted, one possible impact of the injury could be Porzingis moving to center more quickly than the Knicks had planned. In that case, the value of any center would be lower to the organization, let alone one like Hernangomez who spe[/FONT][FONT="]cifically offers complementary skills to Porzingis.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Down the road, New York could reap value from the second-round picks acquired in this trade. Pushing the picks out a couple [/FONT][FONT="]of years has upside for the Knicks because it means they'll come after Kemba Walker reaches f[/FONT][FONT="]ree agency in the summer of 2019. Even if Walker returns to the Hornets, the enor[/FONT][FONT="]mous raise he'll command will make it even more difficult for Charlotte to build aro[/FONT][FONT="]und him. So I think there's a good chance the picks New York get in 2020 and 2021 [/FONT][FONT="](according to Shams Charania of Yahoo! Sports) end up being high in the round.[/FONT]
The deal
Knicks get:[FONT="] Forward Johnny O'Bryant, two future second-round picks[/FONT]
Hornets get:[FONT="] Center Willy Hernangomez[/FONT]
Charlotte Hornets:[FONT="] B[/FONT]
[FONT="]At first blush, this trade doesn't look like much[/FONT][FONT="] of a win for Hernangomez, whose representatives recently expressed to the Knick[/FONT][FONT="]s their displeasure with his reduced role this season according to ESPN's Ian Begley. Having started 22 games and played 18.4 minutes per game last season, when he made the All-Rookie First Team, Hernangomez had been limited to 233 minutes total so far this year after New York added Enes Kanter as a starting center.[/FONT]
[FONT="]So the Knicks fulfilled Hernangomez's wishes ... an[/FONT][FONT="]d traded him to a team with an even more crowded depth chart at center, where Charlotte already has a player with extensive starting experience (Cody Zeller) backing up Dwight Howard.[/FONT]
[FONT="]My guess is the Hornets see Hernangomez and Zeller as mobile enough to play with each other. Hernangomez has played occasionally at power forward. According to NBA Advanced Stats, he played 215 min[/FONT][FONT="]utes in 2016-17 with one of New York's other centers (Joakim Noah, Kyle O'Quinn and Marshall Plumlee). And Zeller began his career playing power forward next to Al Jefferson and Bismack Biyombo.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Nonetheless, an Hernangomez-Zeller duo would be light on perimeter shooting for a modern frontcourt. Hernangomez has made just 29 shots outside the paint in his career, according to Second Spectrum data powered by NBA Advanced Stats, shooting such attempts at a 33.3 percent clip. Zeller ha[/FONT][FONT="]s made 28 of them over the same timeframe, shooting 34.6 percent. Howard, at 34, has actually made more shots outside the paint the last two seasons than either of his backups, though at a weaker percentage (28.3 percent).[/FONT]
[FONT="]If Charlotte finds Hernangomez and Zeller can't play together, that would be disappointing for the player but not the end of the world for the team. After all, Hernangomez could still be injury insurance for Zeller, who missed nearly two months after undergoing surgery to repair a torn menisc[/FONT][FONT="]us in early December. Adding Howard meant the Hornets were able to stay afloa[/FONT][FONT="]t[/FONT][FONT="] without Zeller after going 3-17 in games he missed during 2016-17. Still, with [/FONT][FONT="]O[/FONT][FONT="]'Bryant serving as the third center, Charlotte has been outscored by 7.2 points per 100 possessions with both Howard and Zeller on the bench. Hernangomez should [/FONT][FONT="]be able to help there.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In the long run, Hernangomez could be much more valuable to the Hornets when Howard's contract ends after the 2018-19 season. By that point, Hernangomez will still be playing on the four-year deal he signed with the Knicks last summer, which pays him just $1.5 million in 2018-19 and $1.7 million in 2019-20. For a Charlotte team skirting the luxury tax, having cost-controlled talent like Hernangomez is hugely valuable.[/FONT]
New York Knicks:[FONT="] C[/FONT]
[FONT="]It's hard to blame anybody for Hernangomez falling out of favor in New York. He's played well when given minutes, shooting a higher percentage on 2-point attempts than he did as a rookie (60.5 percent) though rebounding worse. The Knicks didn't exactly plan to add a center ahead of him, but Kanter was the logical return in the Carmelo Anthony trade and played well in the role Hernangomez[/FONT][FONT="] had filled as a rebounder and finisher next to Kristaps Porzingis. (Alas, that role won't be available to Kanter either for the remainder of the season after Porzingis tore his ACL Tuesday.)[/FONT]
[FONT="]What does surprise me is Begley's reporting that New York is still looking for a taker for backup center Kyle O'Quinn ahead of Thursday's trade d[/FONT][FONT="]eadline. Had the Knicks been able to trade O'Quinn, they could simply have moved Hernangomez back into the rotation and everybody probably would have ended up happy. My original thought about this deal was it suggested New York had concluded there wasn't a reasonable deal for O'Quinn to be had before the deadline.[/FONT]
[FONT="]It's also possible O'Quinn could have resolved the dilemma by decli[/FONT][FONT="]ning his $4.3 million player option for 2018-19 and hitting free agency this summer. Kanter also has a player option for 2018-19, though since his is so rich ($18.6 million), he's likely to exercise it. That does mean the Knicks now have only Noah signed to play center beyond the 2018-19 season, when Hernangomez still would have been on his minimum deal.[/FONT]
[FONT="]One interesting question is whether New York's thinking was informed by Porzingis' untimely ACL injury. As I noted, one possible impact of the injury could be Porzingis moving to center more quickly than the Knicks had planned. In that case, the value of any center would be lower to the organization, let alone one like Hernangomez who spe[/FONT][FONT="]cifically offers complementary skills to Porzingis.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Down the road, New York could reap value from the second-round picks acquired in this trade. Pushing the picks out a couple [/FONT][FONT="]of years has upside for the Knicks because it means they'll come after Kemba Walker reaches f[/FONT][FONT="]ree agency in the summer of 2019. Even if Walker returns to the Hornets, the enor[/FONT][FONT="]mous raise he'll command will make it even more difficult for Charlotte to build aro[/FONT][FONT="]und him. So I think there's a good chance the picks New York get in 2020 and 2021 [/FONT][FONT="](according to Shams Charania of Yahoo! Sports) end up being high in the round.[/FONT]
