Uncertainty Going forward
We do not know what the new CBA will bring but it is unlikely that the cap will be increased over the current model unless there is a hard cap. In the short run, a hard cap might help, but not in the long run --it is designed to reduce the power of the richer franchises.
I have calculated our cap space under the current CBA for next year. If we keep Billups he is scheduled to earn $14.2M. With him and our committed -- or team option --salaries for Amare', Melo, Douglas, Fields, Rautins, Turiaf, Walker, Balkman, our first round pick and phantom fillers to reach the required 12 person roster at the minimum salary of about $476K each will put us over $61M. Douglas and Walker have team option contracts. Douglas is plainly a keeper. The team option for Walker is about $900K which will also make him a keeper at least for trade purposes.
We have to make a decision on Billups, as I understand it, within 5 days after the end of the season. We will not know whether there will be an increased cap, via hard-cap, under a new CBA by that time.
We are not getting Deandre Jordan for a mid-level exception if such were to survive in the new CBA. But the Clippers' owner, Sterling, is known for being cheap. On the other hand, for that reason he is also surely likely to want to move Kaman instead.
As much as I like Billups, we have to buy him out for $3.7M. That is our only way to get some room for a big. Even if we do buy him out, under the current CBA the buy-out price will be counted against our cap and will put us over $50M.
Although there is some risk with Jordan who is inconsistent, he would certainly give us a presence in the middle. I believe that a defensive presence in the middle is our most glaring need. If we do not let Billups go, I do not see us possibly getting one -- other than with a lucky draft pick. I do not trust the friendliness of any new CBA or significant cap space for 2012/13 to fill our holes.
With Amare' and Melo's combined salaries increasing into the mid 40 millions, we are going to continue to have cap problems in future years. Indeed, a hard cap could well create real problems for us. Next year might be the only year in the near future with significant cap space. We will not have the space if we keep Billups at $14.2M.
