Jeremy Lin

What to do with Lin?

  • Let him walk

    Votes: 16 28.6%
  • Resign him and keep him long term

    Votes: 27 48.2%
  • Resign him and trade him January 2013 with Amare

    Votes: 13 23.2%

  • Total voters
    56

NYNYK

Benchwarmer
I think his biggest mistake was signing that 2nd offer sheet. I feel that the Knicks may have matched the first offer sheet.
 

wynton

Rookie
Nate Silver does a good job explaining why it makes good financial sense to match Lin's contract.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...n-should-make-financial-sense-for-the-knicks/

After referring to various performance stats, he concludes:

the upside is just too much to pass up. If Lin does perform like a top-10 point guard, he’ll be worth his salary based on his on-court contributions alone.Even if Lin is a merely good player, the marketing boost he provides should more than justify the expense. Lin is already a superstar based on his jersey sales, and the level of fan interest that he generates. The number of Google searches for Lin’s name over the past six months exceeds that of LeBron James — and is about four times as many as those for Anthony, Stoudemire and Chandler combined.

This is a case, moreover, where it makes sense for the Knicks to pursue a high-risk strategy. As presently constructed — without Lin on the roster — they appear to be about a 50-win team. That would usually correlate with a fifth or sixth seed in the Eastern Conference, and an exit within the first two rounds of the playoffs. The N.B.A., unlike the N.H.L. or Major League Baseball, is a league in which skill tends to prevail. Merely being good, and then hoping to get lucky in the postseason, just does not work very often.

And the Knicks would have to share the spotlight. Their new crosstown neighbors, the Brooklyn Nets, also look to have about a 50-win roster — but the Nets are a younger team with fresher branding that might start to steal their headlines and ticket sales.

If Lin is a flop, and the Knicks win 45 games a year with him as their point guard, it wouldn’t make much difference. They’d still probably make the playoffs, and still probably lose in the first round. They’d still have to compete with the Nets both on the court and off it.

But if Lin plays even 80 percent as well as he did in February, the Knicks could have a 55- or even 60-win roster. Winning a championship would still be a feat, with dominant teams like the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder in the league. But the Knicks would be on track to be a No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference.
They would also host many home playoff games and would have a puncher’s chance of bringing home their first N.B.A. title since 1973. The Nets might not be an afterthought like they were in New Jersey, but the Knicks would still be the toast of the town.

If the definition of insanity is trying the same process over and over and hoping for better results, Dolan’s strategy of locking in 30-something veterans to max contracts every year has been a little mad.
Linsanity was something different. As of late Monday morning, on the mere possibility that Lin might not be re-signed, MSG stock had lost about $50 million in market value — roughly as much as the salary and luxury tax that the Knicks would need to keep the dream alive for the next three years.
It might not work out, but the Knicks would be crazy not to try their luck.
 

wynton

Rookie
From Nate Silver's blog today:

As of late Monday morning, on the mere possibility that Lin might not be re-signed, MSG stock had lost about $50 million in market value — roughly as much as the salary and luxury tax that the Knicks would need to keep the dream alive for the next three years.
 

Kidd Karma

Benchwarmer
Nate Silver does a good job explaining why it makes good financial sense to match Lin's contract.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...n-should-make-financial-sense-for-the-knicks/

After referring to various performance stats, he concludes:

Interesting viewpoint, financially speaking it's a sound move to keep him around, but chemistry wise is it? Does Lin take it easy knowing he has a guaranteed deal? The kid worked so hard between years 1 and 2 to improve himself physically. Will that continue, I have no reason to doubt that, the kid's a gym rat since his high school days. I think having Kidd around addresses the chemistry issue between Lin and Melo. Kidd was great in working with the 2008 Olympic team, setting the tone as an unselfish hard working team.
 

skisloper

Starter
I dont think so bro, at least not according to the New CBA, let me see how i can break it down because im no expert here either lol but

Look at the nets, Magic situation Lopez is a restricted free agent just like Lin, but because Lopez had not signed any other offer sheets he was eligible to be traded to the magic for Dwight Howard with limited time to get something done etc etc right? but now since the nets have signed Lopez to his extension of 61mill, he wont be eligible to be traded until January 15th. Which eliminated the Howard to Nets talk until further notice.

With the Lin situation it's a little more tricky Lin ALREADY signed the offer sheet with Houston making it a thing where either we Match Lin or the Rockets are awarded LIn.

It's to late to do any S&T's with Lin because of him signing the offer sheet already.

Thats my understanding of it.

But as far as us matching and trading Lin somewhere else after we match i don't think thats possible once again until January 15th, i may be wrong but i'm sure we cant just Match and simply trade him elsewhere yet.

The better route to take is to Match Lin. He has the poison pill of what 15 mill his 3rd year right? so why not just use that 3rd year 15 mill as an expiring trade chip if Lin isn't playing up to expectations, instead of us just swallowing the 15 mill up. The only issue is finding a trade partner, not many like helping the Knicks.

And if im wrong here anybody feel free to correct me, because i'm still trying to learn these new CBA rules as well.


because if u trade him in his after his 2nd year u will still have to take back the same in salary from another team so the tax would still stay...
someone correct me if I am wrong............

U could trade him after the first year and be ok....
 

Kidd Karma

Benchwarmer
Yes, but if Knicks end up signing Lin, then you will have a short squeeze rally as shorts scramble to cover.

All the news articles are quoting the same unnamed source endless times. There are better stocks to speculate than MSG, I don't see a great risk/reward here.

Agreed, the Stock has lost about 50 cents since the opening, which is the first day of trading since the Lin signing. To early to speculate, Wednesday is drop dead day, but if you bought the stock back in October 2010, you may want to take the conservative route and cash out your earnings.
 

CoolClyde

Moderator
This sucks. People are still saying he?s worth it but barely know anything about the guy. Has anybody even seen this guy play since he was injured?
Big ass contract is only going to cause dissention within the locker room because guys have been around longer and played more consistently?but are not making as much for their skill contributions.
Dolan doesn?t need the money. The Knicks will make plenty money regardless of Lin?.they always have. If we keep him and he ends up a bust the signing will be another example of Knicks spending big on underachievers?.I?m sure this is on the minds of Dolan and the management.
Like I said eailier when all this was first reported?let Houston have him so they can be the laughing stock of the NBA for the next 3 years. He?s no franchise, as I recall?everyone was saying Kidd?s tutelage will make him better, But, IMO? a player at this pay rate is suppose to be primed not trained. This has to be a Joke. What the hell is on his mind and his supporters? lol, Ridiculous.
?Houston, we have a problin!!? lol

fixed it, grasshopper.
 

BillyHoyle

Benchwarmer
because if u trade him in his after his 2nd year u will still have to take back the same in salary from another team so the tax would still stay...
someone correct me if I am wrong............

U could trade him after the first year and be ok....

Not if the team you are trading him to is under the cap.

So if they are 5 million under the cap, you would have to take back 10 million..if they are 10 million under the cap, 5 million, etc...15 million you can give him up for picks.
 

NYNYK

Benchwarmer
There's definitely something going on and I don't think it's related to basketball or finance. Dolan has been known to put personal issues in front of business decisions before.

From the financial numbers already mentioned it makes sense to keep Lin. That luxury tax is chump change. Lin jerseys, T-shirts, and other merchandise will sell like hotcakes no matter where he goes. The Luxury tax would matter if we were a small market team (Hornets, Bobcats, etc.) and we were losing $$$. But we're one of the richest franchises in sports. We make money even when we suck! So why worry about luxury tax?

And we can trade Lin even before we hit that 3rd year even if he turns out to be a mediocre NBA player. Regardless of how much you believe race is a factor, Lin is a money making machine. Any number of small market teams, (Hornets, Bobcats, Timberwolves, Raptors) would love to have him. Most of those franchises are losing attendance right now and Lin would be a great play for them.

So it's not a financial issue. Even from a team standpoint, we have Felton and Kidd. If Lin turns out to be a one hit wonder, fine, bench him. Then trade him before that "ridiculous" 3rd year. I don't think his games with us were a fluke but even if they were we still have an out. Someone will take him.

So, the numbers don't lie. It's not even a bad decision in terms of team play. We fought so hard to get Bird Rights for him. Why let him go?
 

Deathstroke

Benchwarmer
Really though can we put a hit out on James Dolan

Not an overraction to the whole Lin situation(in fact I don't care about that at all) but damn that fool is a goddamn idiot, he isn't going to sell EVER and he's going to continue to run the franchise into the ground, unless we get a GM that kicks Dolan out of the FO like the Rangers GM did then were not going anywhere. I see one of three options: Either we put a hit out on him, we kidnap him or we lobotomize him or something.....
 

Seba

Benchwarmer
So, let's make these clear.

We are not loosing cap flexibility (we will have none in any case).
We are not loosing money (not that I care about fat **** Dolan, but he'd actually make money)
We are not ruining the roster (we keeping an, at least, capable, productive player)
We might actually be adding a valuable asset (see http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...financial-sense-for-the-knicks/?smid=tw-share)

So what were the reasons not to re-sign Jeremy Lin again?
 

CoolClyde

Moderator
deathstroker, you have to be the worst thread starter ever on KO, however I like your thinking re Dolan.

here's a scenario I can live with: Dolan refuses to sign Lin, because he feels dissed that Lin signed second poison pill offer, and doesn't want to pay luxury tax... MSG stock drops to the tune of 500 million dollars, MSG stockholders go into an uproar and force Dolan to resign (not re-sign!). Knicks lose Lin, Knicks lose Dolan... a fair tradeoff?

babydolan.jpg


stroke it!
 

Kidd Karma

Benchwarmer
There's definitely something going on and I don't think it's related to basketball or finance. Dolan has been known to put personal issues in front of business decisions before.

From the financial numbers already mentioned it makes sense to keep Lin. That luxury tax is chump change. Lin jerseys, T-shirts, and other merchandise will sell like hotcakes no matter where he goes. The Luxury tax would matter if we were a small market team (Hornets, Bobcats, etc.) and we were losing $$$. But we're one of the richest franchises in sports. We make money even when we suck! So why worry about luxury tax?

And we can trade Lin even before we hit that 3rd year even if he turns out to be a mediocre NBA player. Regardless of how much you believe race is a factor, Lin is a money making machine. Any number of small market teams, (Hornets, Bobcats, Timberwolves, Raptors) would love to have him. Most of those franchises are losing attendance right now and Lin would be a great play for them.

So it's not a financial issue. Even from a team standpoint, we have Felton and Kidd. If Lin turns out to be a one hit wonder, fine, bench him. Then trade him before that "ridiculous" 3rd year. I don't think his games with us were a fluke but even if they were we still have an out. Someone will take him.

So, the numbers don't lie. It's not even a bad decision in terms of team play. We fought so hard to get Bird Rights for him. Why let him go?

64 million is currently committed to 5 players in 14-15, you need 12 players for a roster, so assume 7 players making 1 million each, that takes you to 71 million, add Lin's 14 million, that takes you to 85 million worst case scenario. Assuming a Lux Tax threshold of 70 million, Knicks would be 15 million over the threshold. Now the multiplier would be, given that the Knicks would be considered a Repeat Offender, you multiply the 15 million by $4.25, lux tax penalty would be over 63 million dollars.
 

Oldtimer

Rotation player
Lin

It is ironic that the unexpected victory with respect to Bird rights has perhaps cost us Lin. If we did not have Bird rights, we could not match what other teams may have offered Lin and what other teams may have offered Lin would not have been backloaded and probably far more reasonable. The Knicks would have known that they could always be outbid. If Lin really wanted to stay in New York, his decisionmaking would have depended simply on what the Knicks would have offered and how many dollars he was willing to give up if he received better offers elsewhere.

I doubt Lin wants to leave New York, but . . .

There have been all sorts of suggested costs to the Knicks if they were to match the Houston offer. The Knicks front-office, to be sure, has crunched the numbers. The guaranteeed payroll going forward and in that third year includes Melo, Chandler, Amare, Camby, Kidd, probably Shump and whoever we draft next year. Apparently it will also include Felton, but for the life of me I cannot understand why the Knicks would commit to a third year for Felton if it is likely to cause luxury tax increases.

Although the Knicks do not know precisely what the cap will be going forward since it is a function of the prior year's BRI, they can do their projections. I have been unable to find a copy of the new CBA, but apparently the luxury tax payments become steeper as teams remain over the cap in successive years. Suffice it to say, the Knicks probably have a pretty good idea how much Lin would actually cost in that third year. Apparently the tax can be as high as $3.50 for each $1.00 over the cap if the luxury tax threshold is passed for three successive years.

It could be very expensive to match the Houston offer. If the Knicks do not match, however, they get nothing for Lin. If they do match, they can trade him sometime after mid-season and well before that third yeaar kicks in. Houston has a lot of assets. They seem to want him.
 

CoolClyde

Moderator
So, let's make these clear.

We are not loosing cap flexibility (we will have none in any case).
We are not loosing money (not that I care about fat **** Dolan, but he'd actually make money)
We are not ruining the roster (we keeping an, at least, capable, productive player)
We might actually be adding a valuable asset (see http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...financial-sense-for-the-knicks/?smid=tw-share)

So what were the reasons not to re-sign Jeremy Lin again?

GREAT FIND SHEBA!

so great, in fact, the entire article deserves re-posting, wallah!

Keeping Lin Should Make Financial Sense for the Knicks
By NATE SILVER
In February, during the height of the Linsanity phenomenon, I attended a game at Madison Square Garden between the Knicks and the Sacramento Kings.

The tickets cost an arm and a leg. But Jeremy Lin and the Knicks did not disappoint. Lin had just 10 points in 26 minutes of play, but many of his 13 assists were spectacular, a series of flawless alley-oops that sent Tyson Chandler and Landry Fields dunking on the Kings like the guys from Sacramento were the Washington Generals, the Harlem Globetrotters? perpetually hapless opponents.

What was more remarkable was the action that took place off the court. This was only Lin?s sixth game as the Knicks? starting point guard ? and just his third start at Madison Square Garden. But the concourses were filled with fans in Lin jerseys. And the high-priced seats were full of people carrying well-intentioned (although sometimes racially insensitive) signs in tribute to him.

The Knicks seemed to be doing everything in their power to encourage the trend. At the team stores around the arena, a wall of Lin bling dominated the displays, while gear for the Knicks? other high-priced stars ? Chandler, Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony ? was consigned to the sale racks. (Lin jerseys eventually outsold those of all other Knicks ? and all other players in the N.B.A. except Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls.) After every Lin bucket or assist, the Knicks public address announcer Michael T. Walczewski paused for emphasis before reciting his name, before the stadium burst into manic applause.

Lin, in other words, was getting the superstar treatment from the Knicks and their fans. Here, after all, was one of the more remarkable sports stories in a generation. In a sport which is not usually forgiving to underdogs, an undrafted point guard out of Harvard was lighting up cash registers and scoreboards, and turning even the most jaded New Yorkers into die-hard fans.

It didn?t hurt that Lin was Taiwanese-American ? in a city where there are about 450,000 residents of Chinese or Taiwanese descent. There are more Chinese-Americans in New York than the entire populations of several N.B.A. cities like Miami, Atlanta or Cleveland (about 400,000 each).

To think of the marketing potential in China itself, which has been starved for an N.B.A. superstar since the gradual demise and eventual retirement of the former Houston Rockets star, Yao Ming.

Investors were quick to recognize the marketing bonanza. The market capitalization for the Knicks? publicly traded parent company, The Madison Square Garden Company, added about $250 million in value in February alone, and has gained roughly $600 million overall since Lin?s first start.

But now that it comes time for the Knicks to actually pay Lin like a superstar, they seem to be balking. Reports in The New York Times and elsewhere suggest that they might not match the offer sheet that Lin signed with the Rockets, which would pay him $25.1 million over three years.

From a pure basketball standpoint, the merits of the deal are uncertain. Lin?s average salary under the contract ? about $8.3 million per year ? is concomitant with a good (although not necessarily great) level of performance over a sustained basis.

Using a statistic called estimated wins added, developed by ESPN?s John Hollinger, I charted the performance of the N.B.A.?s top 40 point guards over the past five seasons. Mr. Hollinger?s statistic (as its name implies) estimates the number of additional wins that a player is worth to his team, above a marginal-level player that could be picked up for the minimum salary.

Then I converted this number from wins into dollars based on the salaries of all N.B.A. players. On average, N.B.A. teams are paying about $1.63 million per win, which means that a player good enough to produce 10 extra wins for his team is worth about $16.3 million.


If Lin plays like a top-10 point guard, he?d be well worth the contract, even without the marketing bonus. A top-10 point guard is worth about 12 wins per season, according to Mr. Hollinger?s numbers, which is equivalent to about $20 million in market value.

That?s higher than the N.B.A. maximum salary, and for a good reason: true superstars in the N.B.A. are worth quite a bit more than what teams are allowed to pay them. Players like LeBron James might easily earn offers that topped out at $50 million per season in a true free market ? and they?d deserve it based on how much value they add to their clubs.

A point guard ranking between 11th and 20th in the league ? a solid starter, but not an All-Star or superstar talent ? is worth about $10 million per year, according to these numbers. By that measure, Lin would still earn his contract, based on his on-court contributions alone.

However, the deal would be a poor one if he ranked in the bottom third of N.B.A. starting point guards ? and a worse one if he were no better than a talented reserve off the bench.

Where Lin will fall along this spectrum is anybody?s guess. His prolonged hot streak in February and March was indicative of superstar talent. But this must be weighed against the decline in his performance later in the year, when he was closer to a league-average player ? and perhaps the fact that, until his breakout in February, he was somebody whom nobody had bothered to draft or wanted to keep on their roster.

Then again, Lin was just 23 years old last season. By all accounts ? not just the stereotype of an Asian-American from Harvard ? he is a quick learner and wants to devote himself to patching the weak spots in his game.

Sports franchises often fear uncertainty, or they perceive it wrongly. During the past decade or two, under the tenure of their owner James L. Dolan, the Knicks have frequently paid top dollar for brand-name players who seem to have proven their worth. Yet, these veteran players have often struggled with age and injury, their contracts becoming white elephants. What seems like a risk-averse strategy really isn?t ? it?s just that all the risk is to the downside.

To be sure, there are also risks with Lin. If he proves to be no more than a marginal player ? or if he gets hurt ? then those jerseys will stop selling. Few T.V. sets in New York?s Chinatown or Flushing ? let alone in Taipei or Shanghai ? would be tuned in to see him come off the bench.

Moreover, because of the N.B.A.?s punitive luxury tax provision, the deal is a lot more expensive to Mr. Dolan than it seems on the surface. Under the league?s rules, the Knicks might face roughly an additional $20 million in luxury taxes on top of Lin?s salary.

It is not quite clear that Lin?s contract alone should be thought of as responsible for this ? the bloated contracts given to players like Stoudemire also contribute to the Knicks? tax burden. Nevertheless, the marginal cost of bringing Lin back might be more like $45 million over three years, or $15 million per season.

But the upside is just too much to pass up. If Lin does perform like a top-10 point guard, he?ll be worth his salary based on his on-court contributions alone.

Even if Lin is a merely good player, the marketing boost he provides should more than justify the expense. Lin is already a superstar based on his jersey sales, and the level of fan interest that he generates. The number of Google searches for Lin?s name over the past six months exceeds that of LeBron James ? and is about four times as many as those for Anthony, Stoudemire and Chandler combined.

This is a case, moreover, where it makes sense for the Knicks to pursue a high-risk strategy. As presently constructed ? without Lin on the roster ? they appear to be about a 50-win team. That would usually correlate with a fifth or sixth seed in the Eastern Conference, and an exit within the first two rounds of the playoffs. The N.B.A., unlike the N.H.L. or Major League Baseball, is a league in which skill tends to prevail. Merely being good, and then hoping to get lucky in the postseason, just does not work very often.

And the Knicks would have to share the spotlight. Their new crosstown neighbors, the Brooklyn Nets, also look to have about a 50-win roster ? but the Nets are a younger team with fresher branding that might start to steal their headlines and ticket sales.

If Lin is a flop, and the Knicks win 45 games a year with him as their point guard, it wouldn?t make much difference. They?d still probably make the playoffs, and still probably lose in the first round. They?d still have to compete with the Nets both on the court and off it.

But if Lin plays even 80 percent as well as he did in February, the Knicks could have a 55- or even 60-win roster. Winning a championship would still be a feat, with dominant teams like the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder in the league. But the Knicks would be on track to be a No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. They would also host many home playoff games and would have a puncher?s chance of bringing home their first N.B.A. title since 1973. The Nets might not be an afterthought like they were in New Jersey, but the Knicks would still be the toast of the town.

If the definition of insanity is trying the same process over and over and hoping for better results, Dolan?s strategy of locking in 30-something veterans to max contracts every year has been a little mad.

Linsanity was something different. As of late Monday morning, on the mere possibility that Lin might not be re-signed, MSG stock had lost about $50 million in market value ? roughly as much as the salary and luxury tax that the Knicks would need to keep the dream alive for the next three years.

It might not work out, but the Knicks would be crazy not to try their luck.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Amen!
:gony:
 

NYNYK

Benchwarmer
64 million is currently committed to 5 players in 14-15, you need 12 players for a roster, so assume 7 players making 1 million each, that takes you to 71 million, add Lin's 14 million, that takes you to 85 million worst case scenario. Assuming a Lux Tax threshold of 70 million, Knicks would be 15 million over the threshold. Now the multiplier would be, given that the Knicks would be considered a Repeat Offender, you multiply the 15 million by $4.25, lux tax penalty would be over 63 million dollars.


"Since Feb. 4th MSG?s stock price has increased from $29.32 to $31.15 February 10th, or 6%, adding $139 million to the company?s market value. During the same period the S&P 500 has gone up less than 1%." That was written back when Linsanity started.
 

munco

Benchwarmer
Assuming Lin is gone, I'm selling the call options I have on MSG. I probably will wait a bit after the dust settles, but the reason I bought the options was Linsanity. I don't see the upside with him gone right now if he's gone.
 

blahwoop

Benchwarmer
deathstroker, you have to be the worst thread starter ever on KO, however I like your thinking re Dolan.

here's a scenario I can live with: Dolan refuses to sign Lin, because he feels dissed that Lin signed second poison pill offer, and doesn't want to pay luxury tax... MSG stock drops to the tune of 500 million dollars, MSG stockholders go into an uproar and force Dolan to resign (not re-sign!). Knicks lose Lin, Knicks lose Dolan... a fair tradeoff?

babydolan.jpg


stroke it!

ill throw in Knicks lose Melo STAT and Lin for Knicks lose Dolan
 

elcol

Rotation player
Somebody without a doubt will get moved in the 3rd year or whenever it is knowing that they are valuable expiring contracts whether it its Lin , Stoudemire, or someone else..
 

Kidd Karma

Benchwarmer
So, let's make these clear.

We are not loosing cap flexibility (we will have none in any case).
We are not loosing money (not that I care about fat **** Dolan, but he'd actually make money)
We are not ruining the roster (we keeping an, at least, capable, productive player)
We might actually be adding a valuable asset (see http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...financial-sense-for-the-knicks/?smid=tw-share)

So what were the reasons not to re-sign Jeremy Lin again?

63 million lux tax hit, assuming 13 man roster with Lin, salary totals 85 million, lux tax level at 70 million. Knicks are repeat offender, tax rate is 4.25 per.
 
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