2015 NBA Draft Lottery Thread - Tuesday, May 19, 2015 - 8:30PM - ESPN

H

htr10

GM
We are a little more than 24 hours away from the ping pong balls deciding the picks in the 2015 NBA draft. I believe that the exact time is tomorrow (Tuesday, May 19) at 8:30PM on ESPN, but maybe double check the time in case you are also watching.

What to watch for:
- Here is how we hope Adam Silver announces the picks in reverse order after the ping pong balls have been picked:
14. Oklahoma City
13. Phoenix
12. Utah
11. Indiana
10. Miami
9. Charlotte
8. Detroit
7. Denver
6. Sacramento

If one of those teams gets skipped, that means someone has jumped into a top 3 pick, which is bad for us unless we also had our ping pong ball get picked. It's worth noting that the combined chances of those 9 teams getting the number one overall pick is just shy of 20% and even better for a top 3 pick, so it's not all that shocking if one of them lucks out and moves up.

Then we get into the nitty gritty and again here is what we want to hear in the top 5:
5. Orlando
4. Lakers
3. Philly
2. Not us (Minny)
1. Knicks (beating the odds)

Best case scenario: as above.
Worst case scenario: neither the Knicks nor Minny gets a lottery ball picked and we end up with the 5th pick.
Close to worst case scenario: we don't get a ping pong ball picked, but Minny does and we get the 4th pick

Our odds for each pick:
1st - 19.9%
2nd - 18.8%
3rd - 17.1%
4th - 31.9%
5th - 12.3%

So, my prediction for tomorrow night:
- If the draft is not rigged: We get the 4th pick. Why? Because that's what the odds say will happen.
- If the draft is rigged: We get the 2nd pick. Lakers get the 1st pick.

Why I don't think it matters: The worst pick we can get is the 5th pick and in my mind, there are a clear top 5 players in this coming draft (Towns, Okafor, Russell, Mudiay, Winslow). Maybe we want Towns or Okafor, but personally I think all 5 of those guys have fairly even chances of being successful on our roster and being future stars if given the chance. This isn't one of those drafts with one clear future superstar head and shoulders above everyone else.

Who is way worse off than us: The Lakers. Because of the Nash trade if things go the wrong way for them tomorrow night they go from a best case scenario of getting the #1 overall pick to a worst case scenario of losing the pick altogether.
 
T

tiger0330

Legend
htr10 you really know how this lottery draw works.

Just posted this in that other thread but it belongs here.

D-Day is tomorrow. The NY Times has an informative article on how the lottery really works. I thought it was interesting reading.

Did you know they only select the top 3 picks and team records decide the rest. Now I know why when there is a tie in records that they can definitively give the coin toss winner a definitive pick.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/18/sp...rssnyt&emc=rss
 
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K

Kiyaman

Legend
Some more insight from John Schmeelk ...

I decided to write this story today because I assume that I?m not going to be rational on Tuesday.

The NBA Draft Lottery is the equivalent of Christmas morning for a five-year-old, except there?s an actual chance of getting a lump of coal in the stocking. It?s the official end of the year and ? hopefully ? a reward for all the suffering Knicks fans have endured since October.

There hasn?t been a more important night for the franchise in a very long time. Knicks fans everywhere will be panicking as they hope for the best, but deep down inside believe the team will somehow wind up selecting 24th overall. (No. 5 is New York?s lowest possible spot.)

But in truth, the Knicks will be in excellent position on June 25, no matter where they pick. Alright, maybe not if they have the fifth selection (12 percent chance), depending on opinions regarding Willie Cauley-Stein, Justise Winslow and the two top European prospects. This year?s NBA Draft is widely considered to be four players deep in the top tier, and while there seems to be a consensus growing around Karl-Anthony Towns, there?s a reasonable chance that Jahlil Okafor, D?Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay could be All-Stars, or even franchise players. There?s a chance this will be like the LeBron James draft, where four of the top five picks are All-Stars (James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade) and one is a bust: Darko Milicic.

Knicks fans that have fallen into the trap of Towns-or-bust will be crushed if the team doesn?t get the first overall pick (19.9 percent chance) on Tuesday night. He probably has the best chance of all the prospects to become a unique two-way player who can not only play dominant defense at center, but also score. He might not fill that role right away, but he should be able to block shots as a rookie and stretch the defense a bit with a mid-range jump shot.

In order to get Okafor, the Knicks will likely need the second pick (18.9 percent chance). Okafor is the likely 2016 Rookie of the Year, with a realistic opportunity for averaging a double-double, and perhaps even getting close to 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Luckily for the Knicks, they will probably get Okafor if they pick third (17 percent chance) and the Sixers select second. Odds are that Philadelphia won?t pick another big man given their past drafts, unless they have a chance to get Towns at No. 1.

If Knicks fans want one of the two guards, picking third or fourth (32 percent chance for 4th, 49 percent combined) it will work out just fine. Russell and Mudiay are very different players, with the former being a great shooter and passer, and the latter having elite athleticism but some raw aspects to his game. Russell would be an ideal fit as a combo guard in the triangle, while Mudiay could bring much-needed penetration to break down the defense.

That?s why picking fifth could become such an issue. If the Knicks land outside the top four (a pick they reportedly could trade), there?s a much better chance of taking a bust. While Cauley-Stein will be a very good defender at the next level, he has no offensive game to speak of and may never be more than that. Winslow had most of his success in college playing as an undersized four against slower power forwards. At 6-foot-6, he will have to play small forwards in the pros, and there are legitimate questions as to whether that may limit his effectiveness. Meanwhile, drafting Europeans like Kristaps Porzingis and Mario Hezonja is always a risk given the competition gap coming to the NBA from overseas.

If Knicks fans don?t get the first pick, they can be disappointed ? but don?t freak out. At No. 2, the Knicks will get the most dominant post player to come out of college since Tim Duncan. At third or fourth overall, the Knicks will get a lead guard that can control the ball for the franchise for a decade. That isn?t a bad thing either.

Don?t freak out unless they pick fifth. That?s when a top pick in this draft becomes extremely risky.
Click to expand...

So far 2 top 10 draft picks welcome the Knicks to select them .. both are from Kentucky .. Towns and WCS
 
H

htr10

GM
Wow, that article is way more down on Winslow than I would have thought. He seems like a freak athlete who could be a great 2 way player in the NBA. Winslow should be able to at least have a shot at guarding either the SF and SG at the NBA level and his ability to shoot the 3 and create offensively should make him able to play either SF or SG on the offensive end. Maybe I just don't know enough about the guy to be scared of the 5th pick though.
 
K

Kiyaman

Legend
htr10 said:
Wow, that article is way more down on Winslow than I would have thought. He seems like a freak athlete who could be a great 2 way player in the NBA. Winslow should be able to at least have a shot at guarding either the SF and SG at the NBA level and his ability to shoot the 3 and create offensively should make him able to play either SF or SG on the offensive end. Maybe I just don't know enough about the guy to be scared of the 5th pick though.
Click to expand...

Winslow's athleticism/potential will be a NBA star .. Winslow may go 2 or 3 in the draft (Philly pick).
 
Wargames

Wargames

Starter
Kiyaman said:
Winslow's athleticism/potential will be a NBA star .. Winslow may go 2 or 3 in the draft (Philly pick).
Click to expand...

I like Winslow alot but he is 6'6 and will be at SF in the NBA, where he could definitely be a star. However, the reason he feasted so much college was that he played the 4 with all the skills and speed of a SF. He basically pulled a Melo on a college level. Melo could go back to the 4 though and Winslow would be exactly the kind of player the knicks would want to put next to him. Though I won't lie I would be really pissed if the knicks get the fourth or fifth pick after this sh*tty season.

Also I friggin forgot the draft starts at 14 and work our way back.... smh hopefully the knicks will get called last.
 
B

Broadway

All Star
I read a tweet from Fran Frashilla that Philly has a 3.7% chance of landing the #1 #6 and #11 pick tonight depending on the results. As htr10 alluded to in his OP the Lakers pick could be conveyed to them if they slip past 5. The other is the Miami Heat slipping past 10. So any team 11-15 should they crack top 10 or 5 or any team Top 10 should crack top 5....Philly is gonna be like


nhr7bou.gif
 
T

tiger0330

Legend
I knew about the Lakers pick but they have a protected Heat pick as well? If any team is going to build through the draft it's got to be them. It's going to be interesting to see how successful they are in the coming years.
 
B

Broadway

All Star
tiger0330 said:
I knew about the Lakers pick but they have a protected Heat pick as well? If any team is going to build through the draft it's got to be them. It's going to be interesting to see how successful they are in the coming years.
Click to expand...

Yep....

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Future/76ers.htm


Yeah no way Philly bombs on all these picks(past 2yrs til now), should they come into the fold. Because no one would think this of our team if we were in the same situation. Maybe 1 or 2 of these might be busts but that's it and this is being extreme on the hater side. Oh and Philly also has 5 2nd round picks in this yrs draft. Their team is going to be Chunky in 2yrs


Pick 3(locked)
Pick 6(possible)
Pick 11(possible)
Wroten
Saric
Noel
Embid
Second Round Pick
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H

htr10

GM
While I agree that Philly has enough draft picks to build a heck of a team for the future, I'm not convinced that they will ever stop this cycle of drafting lottery picks and then trading them after a couple years for more 1st round picks.

On a completely different topic, I now feel that if the draft lottery is in fact rigged that we will be the team to get the #1 pick tonight. Just read some Towns quotes describing how he couldn't afford to ever go to a Knicks game at MSG, but he always watched the team on TV and loved Patrick Ewing. The melodramatic ESPN stories practically write themselves if we get the #1 pick and take him. They probably could even play the "I'm coming home" song again.
 
K

Kiyaman

Legend
htr10 said:
While I agree that Philly has enough draft picks to build a heck of a team for the future, I'm not convinced that they will ever stop this cycle of drafting lottery picks and then trading them after a couple years for more 1st round picks.

On a completely different topic, I now feel that if the draft lottery is in fact rigged that we will be the team to get the #1 pick tonight. Just read some Towns quotes describing how he couldn't afford to ever go to a Knicks game at MSG, but he always watched the team on TV and loved Patrick Ewing. The melodramatic ESPN stories practically write themselves if we get the #1 pick and take him. They probably could even play the "I'm coming home" song again.
Click to expand...


I like Towns, his Knicks story was a drama .. but I would select Winslow over Towns all day/everyday.
Whomever gets the first pick better select Okafor he earned it.
 
K

Kiyaman

Legend
Below is the draft order based on reverse order of 2014-15 standings. The first 14 selections, known as the lottery, are determined in a random draw of team pingpong balls.

The below list includes NBA-tabulated odds to earn the first overall pick, followed by odds to get a top-three selection, for all lottery teams.

1. Minnesota Timberwolves 25% 64.3%
2. New York Knicks 19.9% 55.8%
3. Philadelphia 76ers 15.6% 46.9%
4. Los Angeles Lakers 11.9% 37.8%
5. Orlando Magic 8.8% 29.1%
6. Sacramento Kings 6.3% 21.5%
7. Denver Nuggets 4.3% 15.0%
8. Detroit Pistons 2.8% 9.9%
9. Charlotte Hornets 1.7% 6.1%
10. Miami Heat 1.1% 4.0%
11. Indiana Pacers * .7% 2.5%
12. Utah Jazz * .8% 2.9%
13. Phoenix Suns .6% 2.2%
14. Oklahoma City Thunder .5% 1.8%
 
K

Kiyaman

Legend
Broadway said:
Yep....

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Future/76ers.htm


Yeah no way Philly bombs on all these picks(past 2yrs til now), should they come into the fold. Because no one would think this of our team if we were in the same situation. Maybe 1 or 2 of these might be busts but that's it and this is being extreme on the hater side. Oh and Philly also has 5 2nd round picks in this yrs draft. Their team is going to be Chunky in 2yrs


Pick 3(locked)
Pick 6(possible)
Pick 11(possible)
Wroten
Saric
Noel
Embid
Second Round Pick
Second Round Pick
Second Round Pick
Second Round Pick
Second Round Pick
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Click to expand...


Philly got it good this offseason .. Knicks should have it so good.
I wish i was the president of the 76ers organization, Philly has a $24M cap on July 1st.
I would keep coach Brett Brown, and hire coach Monty Williams the Pelicans fired, plus hire Mark Jackson as the headcoach.
Wroten
Saric
Noel
Embid
One of the most intriguing scenarios in the draft lottery centers on the Los Angeles Lakers. If the Lakers run into bad luck, the needy franchise could lose the pick. The Philadelphia 76ers take the Lakers' pick if that choice falls to six or lower.

Philly having the chance to receive TWO top-10 picks, plus with the right coaches Philly could become a magnete to pull several potential FA
 
H

htr10

GM
15 minutes and counting until the lottery unfolds. More exciting than any game we have played in months. Nice shot of Towns, Okafor, and Russell hanging out together in the waiting area. Pretty sure those guys would be our targets if we get a top 3 pick.
 
H

htr10

GM
Okay, it's okay. All this means is we get Mudiay or Russell. 4th pick is better than the 5th pick. Damn! This stupid season.
 
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