# Thread: Knicks Insider: "All Things Knicks"

1. Can somebody explain the odds of us getting the first, second and third pick and how far can we go down please?

2. Originally Posted by The Dragon
Can somebody explain the odds of us getting the first, second and third pick and how far can we go down please?
Whenever I cite the odds for the new draft lottery, I am using this table from Tankathon.com:

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

For the teams with the 3 worst records, you have identical odds of the 1st pick (14.0%), 2nd pick (13.4%), 3rd pick (12.7%), and 4th pick (12.0%).

The difference between the odds for the teams with the 3 worst records is that the worst record team can only then fall as far as the 5th pick (47.9%). The team with the 2nd worst record can fall as far as the 6th pick . The team with the 3rd worst record can fall as far as the 7th pick, and so on.

More likely than not, the bottom 3 records are going to be us, Phoenix, and Cleveland. One of the 3 of us would have to start winning again to give Chicago a chance at dropping into the bottom 3 from the 4th position.

Biggest change for those of us in the "bottom 4" this year is that the bottom 4 teams used to have a combined ~75% chance of getting the #1 pick. Now, the bottom 4 teams have a combined chance of getting the #1 pick of only a little more than 50%.

Also, now 4 teams' ping pong balls get picked, giving teams a chance to move up, and then it goes by record. That's how the team with the worst record can fall as far as 5th. So, you can watch a team like ours, whose ping pong balls haven't been picked in over 30 years, sit and watch 4 other teams move ahead of us. The joy of being a Knicks fan on lottery night.

3. Originally Posted by htr10
Whenever I cite the odds for the new draft lottery, I am using this table from Tankathon.com:

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

For the teams with the 3 worst records, you have identical odds of the 1st pick (14.0%), 2nd pick (13.4%), 3rd pick (12.7%), and 4th pick (12.0%).

The difference between the odds for the teams with the 3 worst records is that the worst record team can only then fall as far as the 5th pick (47.9%). The team with the 2nd worst record can fall as far as the 6th pick . The team with the 3rd worst record can fall as far as the 7th pick, and so on.

More likely than not, the bottom 3 records are going to be us, Phoenix, and Cleveland. One of the 3 of us would have to start winning again to give Chicago a chance at dropping into the bottom 3 from the 4th position.

Biggest change for those of us in the "bottom 4" this year is that the bottom 4 teams used to have a combined ~75% chance of getting the #1 pick. Now, the bottom 4 teams have a combined chance of getting the #1 pick of only a little more than 50%.

Also, now 4 teams' ping pong balls get picked, giving teams a chance to move up, and then it goes by record. That's how the team with the worst record can fall as far as 5th. So, you can watch a team like ours, whose ping pong balls haven't been picked in over 30 years, sit and watch 4 other teams move ahead of us. The joy of being a Knicks fan on lottery night.
Nice post htr10.

4. Originally Posted by htr10
Whenever I cite the odds for the new draft lottery, I am using this table from Tankathon.com:

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

For the teams with the 3 worst records, you have identical odds of the 1st pick (14.0%), 2nd pick (13.4%), 3rd pick (12.7%), and 4th pick (12.0%).

The difference between the odds for the teams with the 3 worst records is that the worst record team can only then fall as far as the 5th pick (47.9%). The team with the 2nd worst record can fall as far as the 6th pick . The team with the 3rd worst record can fall as far as the 7th pick, and so on.

More likely than not, the bottom 3 records are going to be us, Phoenix, and Cleveland. One of the 3 of us would have to start winning again to give Chicago a chance at dropping into the bottom 3 from the 4th position.

Biggest change for those of us in the "bottom 4" this year is that the bottom 4 teams used to have a combined ~75% chance of getting the #1 pick. Now, the bottom 4 teams have a combined chance of getting the #1 pick of only a little more than 50%.

Also, now 4 teams' ping pong balls get picked, giving teams a chance to move up, and then it goes by record. That's how the team with the worst record can fall as far as 5th. So, you can watch a team like ours, whose ping pong balls haven't been picked in over 30 years, sit and watch 4 other teams move ahead of us. The joy of being a Knicks fan on lottery night.

Very well put htr10 .... the luck the Knicks been getting lately we may be the prime example of one of the worst 3 teams getting the 5th pick in the 2019 draft.

5. If you haven’t seen it yet, the image that the Knicks are using to advertise season ticket renewals features MRob, but also completely includes Durant standing next to him. No other players in frame. Even if we don’t get Durant, that is some real clever marketing.

6. Originally Posted by htr10
Whenever I cite the odds for the new draft lottery, I am using this table from Tankathon.com:

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

For the teams with the 3 worst records, you have identical odds of the 1st pick (14.0%), 2nd pick (13.4%), 3rd pick (12.7%), and 4th pick (12.0%).

The difference between the odds for the teams with the 3 worst records is that the worst record team can only then fall as far as the 5th pick (47.9%). The team with the 2nd worst record can fall as far as the 6th pick . The team with the 3rd worst record can fall as far as the 7th pick, and so on.

More likely than not, the bottom 3 records are going to be us, Phoenix, and Cleveland. One of the 3 of us would have to start winning again to give Chicago a chance at dropping into the bottom 3 from the 4th position.

Biggest change for those of us in the "bottom 4" this year is that the bottom 4 teams used to have a combined ~75% chance of getting the #1 pick. Now, the bottom 4 teams have a combined chance of getting the #1 pick of only a little more than 50%.

Also, now 4 teams' ping pong balls get picked, giving teams a chance to move up, and then it goes by record. That's how the team with the worst record can fall as far as 5th. So, you can watch a team like ours, whose ping pong balls haven't been picked in over 30 years, sit and watch 4 other teams move ahead of us. The joy of being a Knicks fan on lottery night.
Many thanks, so even when we are the worst we still have slim chances to land the first pick 14% !!! lovely ....

7. Team > Odds at No. 1 Pick

Team 1 > 14.0%

Team 2 > 14.0%

Team 3 >14.0%

Team 4 > 12.5%

Team 5 > 10.5%

Team 6 > 9.0%

Team 7 > 7.5%

Team 8 > 6.0%

Team 9 > 4.5%

Team 10 > 3.0%

Team 11 > 2.0%

Team 12 > 1.5%

Team 13 > 1.0%

Team 14 > 0.5%

8. 2018 NBA Draft Lottery Odds:

Phoenix Suns: 25 percent
Memphis Grizzlies: 19.9 percent
Dallas Mavericks: 13.8 percent
Atlanta Hawks: 13.7 percent
Orlando Magic: 8.8 percent
Chicago Bulls: 5.3 percent
Sacramento Kings: 5.3 percent
Cleveland Cavaliers (via Celtics through Nets in trade for Kyrie Irving): 2.8 percent
New York Knicks: 1.7 percent
Charlotte Hornets: 0.8 percent
Los Angeles Clippers (via Pistons in trade for Blake Griffin): 0.7 percent
Los Angeles Clippers: 0.6 percent
Denver Nuggets: 0.5 percent

9. Originally Posted by mafra
2018 NBA Draft Lottery Odds:

Phoenix Suns: 25 percent
Memphis Grizzlies: 19.9 percent
Dallas Mavericks: 13.8 percent
Atlanta Hawks: 13.7 percent
Orlando Magic: 8.8 percent
Chicago Bulls: 5.3 percent
Sacramento Kings: 5.3 percent
Cleveland Cavaliers (via Celtics through Nets in trade for Kyrie Irving): 2.8 percent
New York Knicks: 1.7 percent
Charlotte Hornets: 0.8 percent
Los Angeles Clippers (via Pistons in trade for Blake Griffin): 0.7 percent
Los Angeles Clippers: 0.6 percent
Denver Nuggets: 0.5 percent

Last season odds are what we need now performing like the #1 worst team .. look at Mavs & Hawks odds (13.8 & 13.7) the two owners probably made their trade (Trae & Doncic) before the balls dropped SMH
I wonder how many of the 4 teams with similar odds this year will do business before the ball drop ???

10. Dolan Selling KNicks

(NY Post)

The 11-47 Knicks will not be interesting before this summer’s free agency, but they may have some higher-up-the-ladder intrigue.

The James Dolan rumors are back, with The Ringer’s Bill Simmons reporting on his podcast Sunday night the Knicks owner is listening to offers to sell the team — which the Garden immediately denied.

On “The Bill Simmons Podcast,” the former ESPN writer, citing multiple people “who know things,” said Dolan is considering selling the team he has controlled since 1999.

“It’s happening,” Simmons said. “It’s on. It’s go time. He’s courting offers for the Knicks. That’s what I heard at All-Star Weekend from people I trust.”

By Monday afternoon, the Garden was strongly denying the report.

“The story is 100% false,” the Garden said in a statement. “There has been nothing. No discussions. No plans to have discussions — nothing.”

11. Simmons, however, slammed Davis’ claims and suggested that he should be looking to move elsewhere.

“The Knicks are an awful franchise,” he said on The Bill Simmons Podcast.

“You could say ‘I’d love to play in New York, because MSG [Madison Square Garden] is awesome and they have incredible fans’.

“That’s it. That’s the case for the Knicks.

“Everything else in their franchise is a train wreck.

“They’ve been a train wreck for two decades.

“I counted up today, they’ve won four finals games total since 1973. Games. That’s got to be bottom five lowest in history.

———————-

Simmons is an idiot... he’s right, but he’s still an idiot.

How many Finals games have TOR, MIL, Indy, Philly, Nets, CHA, ORL, WAS, ATL, DEN, OKC, POR, Utah, LAC, Kings, DAL, MIN, PHO, MEM, NO win since 1973.

Mavs and PHI have a title since then, and a few other made appearance, but our 2 NBA Finals appearances and 4 wins right up there with the other 20 teams listed.

We get it, BOS, LA, MIA, CLE, CHI, DET, Spurs and HOU have been pretty much the only teams winning titles, and half this list not relevant for half of those 40 years since 1973.

12. This article suggests that it may be wiser to sign Khris Middleton instead of Kyrie, to place KM next to KD instead of KI, because then there would be room left over to keep DJ, especially if NYK believe in DSJ’s upside.

https://nypost.com/2019/02/18/knicks-can-target-cheaper-free-agent-all-star-to-pair-with-durant/

“How would a 10-man rotation of Jordan, Durant, Kevin Knox, Middleton, and Smith as starters with Mitchell Robinson, Damyean Dotson, Frank Ntilikina, Allonzo Trier and their 2019 lottery pick off the bench sound? It’s food for thought.

“You never thought Middleton would be this consistent,” one NBA scout told The Post. “In college, he was a nice player and scorer. He’s done a great job adding range. He’s a terrific half-dribble-and-create-space shooter. He does not try to complicate the game or himself. If he is your third-best option, you’re a very good playoff team. Nothing fancy, but efficient and quietly competitive.’’

13. We hope this is true but I couldn't hear s**t except background noise but Kyrie supposedly said "2 max spots Kevin, it's time".

14. Originally Posted by tiger0330
We hope this is true but I couldn't hear s**t except background noise but Kyrie supposedly said "2 max spots Kevin, it's time".

I’m hoping where there’s smoke there is fire on this one

15. Maybe they were linking who was recording? Man, it does appear the path is clear and the signs pointing this way.

I may have a heart attack if we land Zion and 2 premiere free agents

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