The most realistic outcome of 2010 FA Market

New New York

New New York

Quiet Storm
Allow me to say these are what I percieve as realistic options, not what I absolutley want


The Cap comes in at 53 million

We trade Jefferies, but not Curry for an expiring deal giving us 32 million plus the MLE

We do not sign any Max FA's: Sorry guys I think most of the Big time players stay at home. Plus with The Rockets and Bulls having the space and talent to nab one, so we lose out here. Think about it, D Wade could return home and play with the Bulls plus be apart of the best Backcourt in The League in him and Rose, if that fails they can just as easily have Joe Johnson. Similar with Bosh, The Rockets could offer an opportunity to return home to play with them or Houston could just grab Amare to play with Ming.


David Lee gets a deal starting at 7.5 million: Outside the Max FA's David is one of the best unrestricted FA out there. I imagine Walsh gives him a backloaded contract to allow for flexability.

With 24.5 million left

Nate gets a deal starting at 4.5 million: Nate has 8 figure talent, but his height and attitude would prevent teams from offering him that, teams will come at him with a full MLE, but I imagine he takes a little less because of Walsh's gesture in offering more than the Q.O. plus he has found a home here.

20 million left

We sign/get a PG for 8 million: Being that we have not been this far under the cap in a long time -if ever- we may forget that we could trade for a player without giving up anything but a pick or so. Two situations to watch out for is Steve Blake and Andre Miller and Flynn and Sessions. As we all know Donnie wanted both Miller and Sessions and they both signed elsewhere. But now both are being outplayed by their younger counterparts. Both Minny and Portland are looking to players in the 2010 trimming these players would help that cause.

If that doesnt happen look for NY to offer players like TJ Ford and Felton deals around 7 or 8 million.

12 million -assuming we spend 8 and do not get Sessions at 4-

6 million dollar deal to Harrington: Could make more somewhere else (possibly) takes less to remain a with NY and The GM who drafted him. I would only make it a two year 14 million dollar deal, with the anticipation of him starting in place of Gallo the first year and then Danillo assuming the starting role the second year.

6 million left

Shot Blocker: I can see us offering the whole remaing 6 million to Camby or splitting it up between Darko and a player like Amir Johnson. But look for Walsh to spend this much on filling this need. 11 million two year deal for a 37 yr old Camby sounds about right.

MLE options

John Salmons: SG/SF very high B-Ball IQ. Showed nice leadership in Bulls Celtics series.

Full MLE


Travis Outlaw- nice backup type player who would fit well in the system.

4 million of the MLE

Channing Frye: only scheduled to make 2 million next year, we could offer him more, depending on how he does in the similar offense in Phoenix (and on how much progress Hill makes this season) this season he could be a nice cheap option.

3 million of MLE


My final Synopsis


There you have it, not a championship team over night, but the PG upgrade, the improved shotblocking and hopefully the improve play of Douglas and Hill gets us out of the dungeon of the East and into the bottom half of the playoffs.

Walsh would still need to move Gallo or Wilson for a reliable SG. Curry coming off the books the season after next will help in the our future upgrades.

But sorry to be the bearer of bad news, Not getting Lebron, D-Wade etc. next off season will not bring about the changes that return us to a major force in the East

but the bright side is Dantoni will be in the longest tenure by any Knick coach since Van Gundy, he will know the majority of his players and they will know him too which will translate into a better team. As of now we do not owe anyone any of our draft picks after this year which is another way we will continue to get better slowly.

But no quick fix here boys, take the amount of years it took for Layden and Isiah to turn us into this mess and that should be about as long as it would take Walsh to undue it completley.
 
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Knicksfansince92

Starter
Great point that situation is way more believable than Lebron or Wade plus it would keep sum fimilar faces but if we sign harrington for 7mil we gonna trade either hill or gallinari because i don't see them performing any better than harrington at SF
 
New New York

New New York

Quiet Storm
Knicksfansince92 said:
Great point that situation is way more believable than Lebron or Wade plus it would keep sum fimilar faces but if we sign harrington for 7mil we gonna trade either hill or gallinari because i don't see them performing any better than harrington at SF
Click to expand...

I must have edited my first post after you posted your response, my thinking is that Harrington hold down the SF position until Danillo comes into his own.

lets imagine we do trade Wilson for a SG I proposed Rudy Fernandez and Cortney Lee in a previous thread lets go with the over and look at my whole scenerio played out in the best case with us getting Ford and Camby and resigning Lee, Nate and Al

TJ Ford/Douglas/Nate
Fernandez/Nate/Salmons
Harrington/Danillo/Salmons
Lee/Hill/Danillo
Camby/Hill/Curry

6th or 7th in The East with a 60 million dollar payroll. Plus the next season we will should be under the cap again with Curry's contract coming off the books we should be able to go after players like Samuel Dalembert, DeAndre Jordan,Al Horford,Tyson Chandler,Shane Battier, Pau Gasol,Peja, Jason Richardson, Greg Oden, etc.
 
S

SilentJay

Rookie
I won't speculate quite yet on the numbers that will be offered to players not worth of max contracts, but I don't see DW giving Lee a 7.5 mil contract or Nate 4.5. If there's an offer, it won't be the same as the one they just received. If they wanna stay they'll have to take cuts. Are we out of the game for Wade? Definitely, if he doesn't go to Chi-Town, he's staying in South Beach to try and lure Lebron. LBJ? you know, so much hype has come out of this that at this point I've lost all perspective. I do think he will only stay in Cleveland if the results are on his side, and I see both Orlando and Boston stronger (Shaq can't hack it at this age against Howard or Boston's big men).
I say this team has a solid chance of making a run both for Johnson and Bosh (I've said before that they're not max contract players yet). Of course Donnie takes his shot at LBJ and Bosh first. Seeing the whole 2010 talent it's not farfetched to say that Felton could be signed for less than expected, for instance.
The real question is: if this team does get rid of JJ AND Curry (NOT likely), how will they choose to spend their money? All at once or take your shots at the players you want (and strike out) and spend maybe half your money in players that turn you into a solid playoff team to save flexibility for 2011?
In order for this team to have any type success in the 2010, in my eyes, this team must improve their performance this season. No doubt.
 
TR1LL10N

TR1LL10N

Hannibal Lecter
If we cant sign a max player in 2010 we should just sign Lee and wait till 2011 when CP3, Melo and Durant are up for grabs. At that point Curry and Jefferies are gone and we will have almost enough cap space to sign 2 max players. The cap should be raised since the economy should have rebounded by then.
 
X

XxLayzieLXx

Rookie
We can't give up trying to get a big name free agent. I think if we don't get Lebron, Bosh or Wade, then we have to wait till next year and try to get CP3 or Melo.

re-signing Harrington and the other you name doesn't help us. It just makes us a 35 win team every year.
 
Scribbles

Scribbles

Rotation player
:teeth: @ the notion that John Salmons gets the MLE only.

John Salmons will make David Lee salary, if not, MORE!

He would be awesome here on the NYK and I would not mind signing him whatsoever.
 
P

paris401

Starter
trying to sign a big time free agent, starts with having a nucleaus of talent for them to "WIN"... other the curry (hahaha) we are lacking...
 
New New York

New New York

Quiet Storm
Scribbles said:
:teeth: @ the notion that John Salmons gets the MLE only.

John Salmons will make David Lee salary, if not, MORE!

He would be awesome here on the NYK and I would not mind signing him whatsoever.
Click to expand...

The full MLE is still an increase in pay for him. Not to mention that once the big time FA's are signed teams are going to be conservative with their spending. I do not see teams offering him 7 million per when there is still some nice talent in next year's FA class -Greg Oden,Shane Battier,Jason Richardson just to name a couple- teams will look to keep room open for that flock.

Plus giving Salmons 7 million or better is a Layden type move

Look at it like this....back in the 05/06 season Mike James averaged 20 pts in 79 starts while shooting 47% from the field, 40% from 3 and 80 from the line...and the season after that he signed for the full MLE.

Now consider Ron Artest and Trevor Ariza just signed full MLE deals, Leandrihno Barbosa also makes full MLE money then the notion of John Salmons getting that much doesnt sound so crazy at all!

I think some of you have been blinded by Isiah's use of the MLE and think that offering that much to a player is an insult because it has never resulted in us getting a good player.

The MLE is for those players who contribute to a team, but is not expected to carry a team....better put , a very good role player, but not an All Star...I think that sums John Salmons perfectly!
 
New New York

New New York

Quiet Storm
SilentJay said:
I won't speculate quite yet on the numbers that will be offered to players not worth of max contracts, but I don't see DW giving Lee a 7.5 mil contract or Nate 4.5. If there's an offer, it won't be the same as the one they just received. If they wanna stay they'll have to take cuts.
I say this team has a solid chance of making a run both for Johnson and Bosh (I've said before that they're not max contract players yet).
Click to expand...


Bosh and Johnson to me are exactly the two The Knicks I would want. But Johnson is slated to make 15 million next year and Bosh 17, now even if they opt out of those deals, take a pay cut we are still in a tough spot because we would for sure have to move both Curry and Jefferies plus Gallo or Wilson for an expiring deal to free up the room to add Bosh and Johnson for lets say 28 million total -which is low- and still be able to fill roster spots.

Now as much as I like David Lee and would want him here, the only way I would take a paycut if I were him is if the team made major upgrades that would make it worth while to be around despite getting paid less. Lets say we did get Bosh and Johnson, I could see us only having to spend 10 milllion total to retain Lee and Nate.

Again too much of this would rely on the long shot of being able to move Curry and Jefferies before July 1st, but dont get me wrong I would love it if it happened, I just cant see it.
 
P

Paul1355

All Star
agredd with most of this but you honestly think Chris Bosh wants to stay with the Raptors who sucked last year? He has been there his whole career and accomplished nothing. If anyone is going to the Knicks it is CHris Bosh....or Amare.

D Wade is def not laving Miami unless they have a catastrohpic season.
As D Wade told Stephen A Smith this year.."New York or Long Beach?...I think Long Beach."

Lebron will only consider coming to NY if the Knicks offer him an insane amount of money...and/or if he does not win a championship and realizes he can't win it in Cleaveland.

I definetly see us getting one really good max contract player and then using the rest on a shotblocker and PG.

If we get Bosh or Amare then Lee won't be resigned..and Nate is still a ?...he has to improve his consistency and stop being too wild during games sometimes.
 
K

Kiyaman

Legend
There is a big Question Mark in the Knicks 2010 Plan

The 2010 FA offseason top tier teams will look to build a roster like the Boston Celtics:
C-Perkins, PF-KG, PF-Big-Baby, PF-Rasheed, PF-Scalibrine, SF-Pierce, SF/SG-Daniels, SG-Ray, SG-House, PG-Rondo

I see all the big name FA-players hooking-up with other USA olympic teammates to become top 4 contenders on their previous team or the next team.
There will be alot of FA solid-players like our David Lee and Nate Robinson that will take a pay cut to be on a team with two USA Olympic Teammates.
The Knicks better have their Super Star FA and their MLE FA player picked out and ready to sign on July 1st, b/c they will have to resign Lee, Nate, Duhon, and Harrington quickly before the next team get to them.
Amare or Bosh will need Lee as a teammate.
Joe Johnson will need Nate & Duhon as a teammate.

The Knicks "can not" afford to be patient, waiting, picky, guessing, or undecided in the 2010 FA offseason.
It is a must that the Knicks sign two decent FA players in the 2010 offseason. The Knicks have 8 expiring contracts out of 14 players.
Starting the 2010-11 season with a D-League team with hope for a 2011 FA owner Dolan and his upstair office stock brokers is not going for it.

This 2010 offseason u will have players (Lebron & Wade) calling other players to join their team, aka the big-3 sending Rasheed Wallace a one way ticket to Boston.
 
LJ4ptplay

LJ4ptplay

Starter
I've stated this in several threads but either many of you don't read posts or you're choosing to ignore reality. We can't afford 2 max-players. We can't afford a max player plus Lee and Nate...and forget about signing Harrington and Duhon. There's simply not enough space.

Best case (remember this is best case) cap projections have us with $28 mil in cap space. $17 mil to a max player leaves us with $11 mil remaining to try and sign Lee, Nate, Harrington and Duhon. It can't be done. And let me remind all of you, after this season is over we will have a roster of 6 players (Curry, Jeffries, Hill, Douglas, Gallo and Chandler) and only $28 mil to try and fill the 13 player minimum roster. Any money spent in addition to our cap space (e.g. MLE) eats into 2011's cap space and therefore eliminates our chances at getting a max player in 2011 (Jeffries' contract + Curry's contract = 1 max player contract).

Unless of course Curry and Jeffries are traded by this year's trade deadline (Feb. 2010). Then we will have plenty. But that is a long shot. I really don't see any team giving up a very valuable expiring contract for Jeffries or Curry. No matter how much we showcase Jeffries. Nowadays expiring contracts are worth much more than what Jeffries and Curry can bring to any team.

So, where does that leave the Knicks? Essentially we need to build the team in 2010. I think we can sign a max player and sign Lee or Harrington for around $8 mil (leaves us with $3 mil in cap space).

Then, believe it or not, Curry's and Jeffries contracts will be very valuable come next offseason because they are very large expiring contracts. We must look for teams with players that have large/long-term contracts and are looking to free up cap space. For example, Kirk Hinrich in Chicago, Kevin Martin in Sacramento, Monta Ellis in Golden State.

So, Curry + 2012 draft pick to Sac for Kevin Martin. Then Jeffries + Chandler to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich.

PG-Hinrich
SG-Martin
SF-Gallo
PF-Harrington
C-Bosh

Give the $3 mil in the remaining cap space to a solid bench player (preferably a low-post banger). Give Nate the MLE and we have Hill, Douglas, Nate + 1 other player off the bench. Not a bad squad. Could be very competitive in the east.
 
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GetRealistic

GetRealistic

Starter
LJ4ptplay said:
I've stated this in several threads but either many of you don't read posts or you're choosing to ignore reality. We can't afford 2 max-players. We can't afford a max player plus Lee and Nate...and forget about signing Harrington and Duhon. There's simply not enough space.

Best case (remember this is best case) cap projections have us with $28 mil in cap space. $17 mil to a max player leaves us with $11 mil remaining to try and sign Lee, Nate, Harrington and Duhon. It can't be done. And let me remind all of you, after this season is over we will have a roster of 6 players (Curry, Jeffries, Hill, Douglas, Gallo and Chandler) and only $28 mil to try and fill the 13 player minimum roster. Any money spent in addition to our cap space (e.g. MLE) eats into 2011's cap space and therefore eliminates our chances at getting a max player in 2011 (Jeffries' contract + Curry's contract = 1 max player contract).

Unless of course Curry and Jeffries are traded by this year's trade deadline (Feb. 2010). Then we will have plenty. But that is a long shot. I really don't see any team giving up a very valuable expiring contract for Jeffries or Curry. No matter how much we showcase Jeffries. Nowadays expiring contracts are worth much more than what Jeffries and Curry can bring to any team.

So, where does that leave the Knicks? Essentially we need to build the team in 2010. I think we can sign a max player and sign Lee or Harrington for around $8 mil (leaves us with $3 mil in cap space).

Then, believe it or not, Curry's and Jeffries contracts will be very valuable come next offseason because they are very large expiring contracts. We must look for teams with players that have large/long-term contracts and are looking to free up cap space. For example, Kirk Hinrich in Chicago, Kevin Martin in Sacramento, Monta Ellis in Golden State.

So, Curry + 2012 draft pick to Sac for Kevin Martin. Then Jeffries + Chandler to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich.

PG-Hinrich
SG-Martin
SF-Gallo
PF-Harrington
C-Bosh

Give the $3 mil in the remaining cap space to a solid bench player (preferably a low-post banger). Give Nate the MLE and we have Hill, Douglas, Nate + 1 other player off the bench. Not a bad squad. Could be very competitive in the east.
Click to expand...


I understand your thought process and i know you've done your research but i have a thought that you may not have thought of. We may not be able to trade Jefferies and Curry during the season. But come the offseason when both of those players are on expiring contracts for the upcoming season don't you feel we'd be able to trade them to a team that wants to build cap room for the summer of 2011 when Bosh, Melo, and Paul are free agents...

So early the the offseason we sign say a Bosh, Lebron, or Wade then look a the market and trade our now two expiring contracts for another established player on a team thats looking to shed salary or rebuild. I'm not positive but i get a feeling New Orleans realizes they won't be able to sign Paul and they are in a desperate financial situation so it could be possible that we do some sort of sign and trade with Lee or Robinson (we own bird rights) and one of our expiring contracts and a first rounder or say a Jordan Hill.

Paul is just an idea but there are other players that could be avialalbe. If Denver falls off Carmello could be had, or maybe a player like OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay, etc.... Theres other possibilities then straight signings is all i'm saying.


I also wouldn't be shocked if a team like Phoenix or Atlanta has an awful start and decides to drop Joe Johnson or Amare for cap relief (neither player is going to resign). We have a ton of expiring contracts and 4 or 5 young players to offer up.. And in this case we'd already own the players rights and could sign our free agents and then resign the aquired player going over the cap.

Theres stll light at the end of the tunnle LJ.
 
LJ4ptplay

LJ4ptplay

Starter
GetRealistic said:
I understand your thought process and i know you've done your research but i have a thought that you may not have thought of. We may not be able to trade Jefferies and Curry during the season. But come the offseason when both of those players are on expiring contracts for the upcoming season don't you feel we'd be able to trade them to a team that wants to build cap room for the summer of 2011 when Bosh, Melo, and Paul are free agents...

So early the the offseason we sign say a Bosh, Lebron, or Wade then look a the market and trade our now two expiring contracts for another established player on a team thats looking to shed salary or rebuild. I'm not positive but i get a feeling New Orleans realizes they won't be able to sign Paul and they are in a desperate financial situation so it could be possible that we do some sort of sign and trade with Lee or Robinson (we own bird rights) and one of our expiring contracts and a first rounder or say a Jordan Hill.

Paul is just an idea but there are other players that could be avialalbe. If Denver falls off Carmello could be had, or maybe a player like OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay, etc.... Theres other possibilities then straight signings is all i'm saying.


I also wouldn't be shocked if a team like Phoenix or Atlanta has an awful start and decides to drop Joe Johnson or Amare for cap relief (neither player is going to resign). We have a ton of expiring contracts and 4 or 5 young players to offer up.. And in this case we'd already own the players rights and could sign our free agents and then resign the aquired player going over the cap.

Theres stll light at the end of the tunnle LJ.
Click to expand...

You must not have read the latter half of my post. I essentially said the same thing.
 
GetRealistic

GetRealistic

Starter
I guess. But who really wants Kevin Martin? I'd take Hinirich cause he plays D and competes but i'll pass on the volume shooting of Kevin Martin.
 
LJ4ptplay

LJ4ptplay

Starter
GetRealistic said:
I guess. But who really wants Kevin Martin? I'd take Hinirich cause he plays D and competes but i'll pass on the volume shooting of Kevin Martin.
Click to expand...

It's just an idea. But I wouldn't mind having Kevin Martin. He's not as much of a volume shooter as you think. The only thing that worries me the most about Martin is is health. He gets injured often.

Last year stats:

Joe Johnson:
21.4 pts, 43.7% fg (on 18 attempts), 36% 3pt (on 5.2 attempts)

Kevin Martin:
24.6 pts, 42.1% fg (on 15.9 attempts), 41.5% 3pt (on 5.4 attempts)

Pretty comparable.

I would definitely go after Hinrich. His best year was '06-07 (when he wasn't injured or playing behind Rose) where he averaged:

16.6 pts, 44.8 fg% (on 13.3 attempts), 41.5% 3pt (on 4.2 attempts).

He's also a very good defender and passer. He would play well in D'Anotni's system.

But like you said. There is still light at the end of the tunnel. I'm not all doom and gloom...like Kiya. It just bothers me when fans think we can build a dream team next year without knowing the facts.
 
O

Oldtimer

Rotation player
2011

I am more pessimistic than LJ4ptPlay as to our actual Cap space for 2010. If the Cap is $53M, I expect it will be in the $21M area. We must match up a "Team Salary" with the Cap and there are several things in "Team Salary" that are not intuitive, for example, the amount of the mid level exception. But I agree with LJ4ptPlay, we will not get two max players in 2010, and in order to have any 2010 Cap room, we will have to renounce our Bird Rights to virtually all our free agents.

What intrigues me is 2011. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement which includes all the Cap, Team Salary and Cap exception rules expires on June 30, 2011. The 2011"season" begins on July 1, 2011. What rules will apply to 2011? You can bet they will be different.

I believe that Walsh is simply getting as much flexibility as possible and that he is probably looking as much to 2011 as 2010.
 
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