1st Cavs: -150
2nd Bulls: +150
3rd Knicks: +200
4th Nets: +400
5th Heat: +600
6th Clippers: +1000
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According to countdown2lebron.com, the Knicks have the 3rd highest chance of getting Lebron James.
Here are my odds. Feel free to post your odds.
Odds of having Lebron James, at the start of the 2010 season.
Cleveland Cavaliers- 30%
Before the season started, the odds were probably 50%, because of all of the publicity, and the signing of Shaquille O'Neal. However, after the second round loss to the Celtics, the Cavs' odds dropped by 10%. And after the Delonte West scandal, the odds dropped another 10%. Even if the rumor was false, James is not going to feel comfortable in Cleveland, if people are going to always say embarrassing stories about his personal life to the entire world.
New Jersey Nets-20%
Lebron James is friends with Jay-Z. The Nets have an All Star(Devin Harris), a future All Star(Brook Lopez), and a top 3 draft pick. They also have solid bench players, with Terrence Williams, Courtney Lee, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Jarvis Hayes. The Nets plan to move to Brooklyn soon, so he'd still get to party, get lots of hype, and meet lots of other celebrities.
Although it wouldn't make sense for Lebron James to go to a city where Michael Jordan will always be their greatest player, Chicago is close to Cleveland, so it would be very easy for him to move his family down there. Plus, they have an All Star(Derrick Rose), solid frontcourt players(Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, and Luol Deng), and Kirk Hinrich.
The Miami Heat have enough cap space to sign 1 maximum salary player. All they need is 1 max offer to get Lebron James. A James and Wade Duo is better than a Ray Allen and Paul Pierce combo. The only question is whether or not James would be willing to take a back seat to Wade.
New York Knicks-5%
The Knicks have the biggest stage of them all. But what do the Knicks have to offer, besides that? They only have 4 players under contract, David Lee is a free agent, and the Knicks currently have 5 small forwards. Lebron James would have a hard time winning a championship, or even making it passed the first round of the playoffs, in New York.
Los Angeles Clippers-1%
I honestly don't understand why they're even considered one of the top teams that could get Lebron James. This team is cursed. They've only been to the playoffs 4 times, in the last 34 years. Why would Lebron James want to come to a team with such a bad history? Their leader, Baron Davis, is injury prone. Chris Kaman is overrated. Eric Gordon is good, not great. Blake Griffin is the only player that is a sure bet to perform at a high level next season, and he'll be a rookie.
All other NBA teams, 1%.