I can prove that you can't win four straight playoff series by relying on Vince Carter
You know why? Because he's Vince Carter! Ask the Nets' fans about him. Ask the Raptors' fans about him. They know.
I can prove that Magic fans just muttered to themselves, "We don't need to rely on Vince to win four straight series -- we had a +12.2 point differential after the All-Star break, you GO NETS!!!."
My counter to your muttering: Where are you going in the last three minutes of a tight game? Last spring, you cleared out for Hedo and let him create shots for himself or someone else. Worked all the way to the Finals. What about this spring? Dwight Howard takes 10 shots a game and disappears down the stretch. According to 82games.com, Howard averaged 16.0 crunch-time points per 48 minutes, such a staggeringly low number that Al Horford (17.0) and Udonis Haslem (23.9) topped him, Andrew Bogut (16.0) tied him and Joakim Noah (15.6) nearly tied him. And that's fine. He was still the third-most valuable player in the league. (At least in my opinion.) But you can't win in the playoffs without someone creating quality shots in the last four minutes.
MAGIC NUMBERS
Orlando's "clutch" numbers, according to 82games.com (fourth quarter or OT, less than five minutes left, neither team ahead by more than five points):
2010 PLAYER PPG PER 48 FGA PER 48 FTM PER 48 FG% RECORD
Vince Carter 39.8 29.6 13.4 40.0% 16-13
Jameer Nelson 23.5 22.0 4.3 38.7% 10-12
JJ Redick 21.7 12.2 8.7 42.9% 11-10
Rashard Lewis 20.9 14.1 7.3 41.9% 17-12
Dwight Howard 16.0 5.8 9.8 53.8% 20-13
Mickael Pietrus 14.1 10.3 2.6 37.5% 6-6
Matt Barnes 10.0 6.3 2.5 40.0% 10-8
2009 PLAYER PPG PER 48 FGA PER 48 FTM PER 48 FG% RECORD
Jameer Nelson 34.7 22.4 7.2 51.6% 12-7
Rashard Lewis 28.0 15.0 9.3 51.1% 26-13
Hedo Turkoglu 26.6 20.1 10.8 35.7% 25-12
Dwight Howard 19.7 6.3 11.9 61.1% 22-14
So where's it coming from? Jameer Nelson has slipped since his shoulder injury last season. Lewis' numbers have fallen off without Turkoglu. That leaves Vince. (See the sidebar to the right.) Is anyone buying this? What happens the first time someone gives him a hard playoff foul on a drive? What happens if he tweaks his ankle and has to play through pain? What happens if he has menstrual cramps? (Jokes! I'm joking. Stop it. Settle down.) What happens (hypothetically) in a Game 6 in Charlotte or Atlanta, with Orlando trailing three games to two and facing a giant upset, tie game, two minutes to play, win or go home? Who gets the ball? Who takes over? Who is everyone looking at and saying, "Save us?" That's right … Vince Carter. The most disappointing superstar of his generation.
You might be an optimist. You might believe in redemption. You might believe that, after A-Rod, Manning, Duke and Kobe, the thought of Vince Carter being the top creator on an NBA champ isn't far-fetched.
I am a pessimist. At least when Vince is involved. Even though he's playing for his most talented team ever, I can prove he will destroy them in the end. Why? Because he's Vince Carter. Did you miss the past 12 years or something? Why do you think Orlando got him for 20 cents on the dollar? Why do you think Toronto fans still jeer him lustily even though he left six years ago? Why do you think Kidd pushed for a trade to Dallas? Orlando fans, remember we had this conversation when there's a big playoff game in a few weeks and Vince is rolling around on the floor like he's been shot as you're screaming, "Get up! GET UP, VINCE! HE BARELY FOULED YOU! IT'S GAME 7! GET THE EFF UP!!!!!!!!!!!!"