Kristaps Porzingis? latest winter slumber should terrify Knicks

[mafra]

With player-tracking data courtesy of Second Spectrum, we know the height of every nearest defender on every shot taken leaguewide. Porzingis' considerable amount of time spent playing the 4, coupled with the switch-happy nature of today's downsizing league, creates mismatches on a scale that nobody else comes close to replicating. So far this season, he has taken nearly 300 more shots with a 6-inch height advantage over his nearest defender than Dirk Nowitzki, who has taken the second-most such attempts.

Simply by stepping on the floor and running basic actions, Porzingis spends more time being guarded by players a half-foot shorter than him than any other player. Clearly, this gives the Knicks' offense opportunities. And yet, as Chris Herring recently outlined for FiveThirtyEight, it hasn't translated into the types of high-quality shots you might expect.

This becomes particularly alarming when considering the pattern of Porzingis' shots after manufacturing significant mismatches. It all boils down to a single presiding factor: location, location, location, as shown here using Second Spectrum data.

Look at every one of Porzingis' shots in which he held an advantage of at least 6 inches over a defender within 3 feet, and nearly 60 percent of them have come on either midrange or long 2s outside of 10 feet -- a shot he has connected on just 42 percent of the time, according to Second Spectrum. That equates to about 0.85 points per possession, which is a return on investment that would be significantly worse than the worst offenses in league history.

 

[mafra]

With Porzingis using more shots than anyone on the roster -- a large percentage of which are contested midrange and long 2s -- it's probably no surprise then that New York on average take worse shots than any other team in the league. It's the same old story for the Knicks, who over the previous three seasons ranked at or near the bottom of the league in this same metric.

The juxtaposition with a player such as Antetokounmpo is fascinating and also provides some insight into how Porzingis might better utilizing his unique advantage. Antetokounmpo is nowhere close to as good of an outside shooter as Porzingis. Instead, the Milwaukee Bucks forward feasts inside, leading the NBA with 16.6 points in the paint per game, according to NBA Advanced Stats. It's also why Antetokounmpo shoots 15 percentage points better than Porzingis when tightly guarded by a player 6 inches shorter.

Porzingis is nowhere to be found on the leaderboard for paint points per game, as he ranks outside the top 50. That's not particularly flattering for a No. 1 option who doubles as the highest volume player of his size in league history.

All of that aside, he's 22 years old and his future is beyond bright. Learning how to score when the whole defense is focused on you takes time.

 

[mafra]

Point is: on average, KP is shooting above defenders six inches shorter than he is.... but he?s not taking advantage of this bc his shots are coming outside the midrange and paint area.