Whenever I cite the odds for the new draft lottery, I am using this table from Tankathon.com:
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
For the teams with the 3 worst records, you have identical odds of the 1st pick (14.0%), 2nd pick (13.4%), 3rd pick (12.7%), and 4th pick (12.0%).
The difference between the odds for the teams with the 3 worst records is that the worst record team can only then fall as far as the 5th pick (47.9%). The team with the 2nd worst record can fall as far as the 6th pick . The team with the 3rd worst record can fall as far as the 7th pick, and so on.
More likely than not, the bottom 3 records are going to be us, Phoenix, and Cleveland. One of the 3 of us would have to start winning again to give Chicago a chance at dropping into the bottom 3 from the 4th position.
Biggest change for those of us in the "bottom 4" this year is that the bottom 4 teams used to have a combined ~75% chance of getting the #1 pick. Now, the bottom 4 teams have a combined chance of getting the #1 pick of only a little more than 50%.
Also, now 4 teams' ping pong balls get picked, giving teams a chance to move up, and then it goes by record. That's how the team with the worst record can fall as far as 5th. So, you can watch a team like ours, whose ping pong balls haven't been picked in over 30 years, sit and watch 4 other teams move ahead of us. The joy of being a Knicks fan on lottery night.