Predicting where (and for how much) NBA's top 50 free agents will sign ...
Tom Ziller - SB Nation - Thursday, June 30, 2016
1. Kevin Durant: The finances of the 1+1 in Oklahoma City just make too much sense. Two years, $58.5 million with the Thunder with a player option on Year 2.
2. LeBron James: Likewise. Two years, $68.3 million for LeBron in Cleveland. He can keep signing these at escalating rates for a decade after what he pulled off.
3. Andre Drummond (restricted): I think the Pistons will absolutely keep Drummond, but I think something interesting is going to happen here, like four years, $108 million with a player option after Year 3.
4. Mike Conley: Five years, $125 million to re-up with the Grizzlies.
5. Al Horford: Four years, $120 million with the Boston Celtics. Go for broke. Here's your star, in a way.
6. DeMar DeRozan: Five years, $161 million to stay with Toronto, announced early on July 1. A gobsmacker of a deal.
7. Dwyane Wade: Two years, $50 million with Miami.
8. Hassan Whiteside: Four years, $80 million with the Los Angeles Lakers. Godspeed to you.
9. Dwight Howard: Three years, $75 million with the Wizards. Team option after Year 2.
10. Dirk Nowitzki: Three years, $36 million with Dallas. Player option after Year 2.
11. Nicolas Batum: Five years, $120 million in Charlotte. I can't even process these numbers, really.
12. Tim Duncan: Picked up his player option because he hates paperwork that much.
13. Bradley Beal (restricted): Four years, $98 million with the Wizards, with a player option after Year 3. You could kind of call this a compromise deal? I mean, a compromise deal that pays Bradley Beal up to $98 million ...
14. Harrison Barnes (restricted): He stays in Golden State at five years for $81,999,999, or $1 less than Draymond Green's deal. Then he hits a bunch of big playoffs shots next year.
15. Chandler Parsons: Four years, $94 million in Orlando. Not quite max, but holy smokes man.
16. Kent Bazemore: Four years, $84 million in Phoenix.
17. Bismack Biyombo: Four years, $66 million in Toronto.
18. Pau Gasol: Two years, $18 million in Golden State, player option on Year 2.
19. Marvin Williams: Four years, $55 million in New Orleans.
20. Festus Ezeli (restricted): The Warriors match a 3-year, $42 million offer sheet signed with the Mavericks, then trade Andrew Bogut.
21. Joakim Noah: 2 years, $30 million (team option on Year 2) with the Knicks.
22. Jordan Clarkson (restricted): Oh boy. Four years, $65 million with the Lakers.
23. Evan Fournier (restricted): Four years, $75 million with the Magic.
24. Dion Waiters (restricted): Three years, $39 million with the Brooklyn Nets.
25. Eric Gordon: Three years, $45 million with the New York Knicks. Team option after Year 2.
26. Ryan Anderson: Four years, $80 million with the Sacramento Kings. Welcome home, Ryno.
27. Evan Turner: Three years, $45 million with the Pelicans.
28. Allen Crabbe (restricted): Three years, $18 million with those damn Blazers.
29. Shaun Livingston (partial guarantee): The Warriors fully guarantee his contract.
30. Jeremy Lin: It is with considerable glee that I write: four years, $76 million with the Mavericks.
32. Luol Deng: Two years, $14 million with the Clippers. Player option after Year 1.
33. J.R. Smith: Three years, $30 million with Cleveland. Team option after Year 2.
34. Rajon Rondo: Sigh. Two years, $37 million in Sacramento.
35. Arron Afflalo: I have literally no read on Afflalo's future. So uh ... three years, $27 million with the Sixers?
36. Amir Johnson (fully unguaranteed): Boston waives Johnson to sign Horford. The Hawks sign Johnson to a two-year, $24 million deal.
37. Tyler Johnson (restricted): Three years, $15 million with Miami.
38. Matthew Dellavedova (restricted): Four years, $48 million with the Rockets. Cleveland declines to match.
39. Boban Marjanovic (restricted): The Spurs withdraw their qualifying offer and sign Boban to a 1-year, $6 million deal.
40. Robert Covington (fully unguaranteed): The Sixers guarantee Covington's contract.
41. Ian Mahinmi: Two years, $24 million with Indiana.
42. Brandon Jennings: Two years, $28 million with Philadelphia. You have your point guard!
43. Joe Johnson: One year, $5 million in Miami.
44. Deron Williams: One year, $10 million in Chicago.
45. Al Jefferson: Two years, $16 million in Dallas.
46. Jamal Crawford: Memphis! Two years, $24 million.
47. Josh Richardson (fully unguaranteed): Miami will guarantee the hell out of this.
48. Jared Sullinger (restricted): Three years, $30 million in Charlotte.
49. Ersan Ilyasova (partial guarantee): The Thunder will waive him to save the money. He'll end up with the Blazers for $5 million.
50. Jared Dudley: Two years, $18 million with the Warriors. (Can the Warriors afford all this? Where there's a will, there's a way.)
My deepest apologies to the Bucks, Jazz, Nuggets, Timberwolves and any other team I left out of the derby. These teams are built through the draft and lack obvious holes that can be filled reasonably with this free agent class. Trust me, y'all: when you see the numbers flying around, you'll be glad your team is sitting the top 50 free agent party out.