We are a little more than 24 hours away from the ping pong balls deciding the picks in the 2015 NBA draft. I believe that the exact time is tomorrow (Tuesday, May 19) at 8:30PM on ESPN, but maybe double check the time in case you are also watching.
What to watch for:
- Here is how we hope Adam Silver announces the picks in reverse order after the ping pong balls have been picked:
14. Oklahoma City
13. Phoenix
12. Utah
11. Indiana
10. Miami
9. Charlotte
8. Detroit
7. Denver
6. Sacramento
If one of those teams gets skipped, that means someone has jumped into a top 3 pick, which is bad for us unless we also had our ping pong ball get picked. It's worth noting that the combined chances of those 9 teams getting the number one overall pick is just shy of 20% and even better for a top 3 pick, so it's not all that shocking if one of them lucks out and moves up.
Then we get into the nitty gritty and again here is what we want to hear in the top 5:
5. Orlando
4. Lakers
3. Philly
2. Not us (Minny)
1. Knicks (beating the odds)
Best case scenario: as above.
Worst case scenario: neither the Knicks nor Minny gets a lottery ball picked and we end up with the 5th pick.
Close to worst case scenario: we don't get a ping pong ball picked, but Minny does and we get the 4th pick
Our odds for each pick:
1st - 19.9%
2nd - 18.8%
3rd - 17.1%
4th - 31.9%
5th - 12.3%
So, my prediction for tomorrow night:
- If the draft is not rigged: We get the 4th pick. Why? Because that's what the odds say will happen.
- If the draft is rigged: We get the 2nd pick. Lakers get the 1st pick.
Why I don't think it matters: The worst pick we can get is the 5th pick and in my mind, there are a clear top 5 players in this coming draft (Towns, Okafor, Russell, Mudiay, Winslow). Maybe we want Towns or Okafor, but personally I think all 5 of those guys have fairly even chances of being successful on our roster and being future stars if given the chance. This isn't one of those drafts with one clear future superstar head and shoulders above everyone else.
Who is way worse off than us: The Lakers. Because of the Nash trade if things go the wrong way for them tomorrow night they go from a best case scenario of getting the #1 overall pick to a worst case scenario of losing the pick altogether.
What to watch for:
- Here is how we hope Adam Silver announces the picks in reverse order after the ping pong balls have been picked:
14. Oklahoma City
13. Phoenix
12. Utah
11. Indiana
10. Miami
9. Charlotte
8. Detroit
7. Denver
6. Sacramento
If one of those teams gets skipped, that means someone has jumped into a top 3 pick, which is bad for us unless we also had our ping pong ball get picked. It's worth noting that the combined chances of those 9 teams getting the number one overall pick is just shy of 20% and even better for a top 3 pick, so it's not all that shocking if one of them lucks out and moves up.
Then we get into the nitty gritty and again here is what we want to hear in the top 5:
5. Orlando
4. Lakers
3. Philly
2. Not us (Minny)
1. Knicks (beating the odds)
Best case scenario: as above.
Worst case scenario: neither the Knicks nor Minny gets a lottery ball picked and we end up with the 5th pick.
Close to worst case scenario: we don't get a ping pong ball picked, but Minny does and we get the 4th pick
Our odds for each pick:
1st - 19.9%
2nd - 18.8%
3rd - 17.1%
4th - 31.9%
5th - 12.3%
So, my prediction for tomorrow night:
- If the draft is not rigged: We get the 4th pick. Why? Because that's what the odds say will happen.
- If the draft is rigged: We get the 2nd pick. Lakers get the 1st pick.
Why I don't think it matters: The worst pick we can get is the 5th pick and in my mind, there are a clear top 5 players in this coming draft (Towns, Okafor, Russell, Mudiay, Winslow). Maybe we want Towns or Okafor, but personally I think all 5 of those guys have fairly even chances of being successful on our roster and being future stars if given the chance. This isn't one of those drafts with one clear future superstar head and shoulders above everyone else.
Who is way worse off than us: The Lakers. Because of the Nash trade if things go the wrong way for them tomorrow night they go from a best case scenario of getting the #1 overall pick to a worst case scenario of losing the pick altogether.