We foul they make 1. Now Doc has to make the call, purposely miss 1 in hopes of a rebound. To me, all those "stars" are harder to align then a heavily contested PP34 3ptr.
Pierce hits the 3, generally speaking, at a .370 clip (being generous). We could find a way to find a lower, truer % given it was a well contested shot, but I'll throw a bone.
What some of the rubes here fail to realize (or just don't want to admit) is that even if Pierce makes the shot, we have a very reasonable chunk of time to win the game outright on a final possession -- in Melo's hands.
Maybe the most clutch, pure scorer on the planet.
In the worst situation (another bone I'll toss y'all's way) our % of making any score on the final play is tantamount to the very shot Pierce/they were forced into attempting.
Even then, assuming they make and we miss....we don't lose, and can look to outplay them in OT.
These types of things have profound ramifications when you look to the two plays, and decide to say which is best, and which is best by how much.
And, if you recall, we stormed them in the 4th, particularly the end, overcoming a 9pt deficit and simply outplaying them -- on the back of excellent play by Melo, no less -- leading up to the point they were put in the horrible position to have a chance at even tying the game in OT.
Idk, the alternative route of fouling could be a very marginally superior % play. My guess it isn't. But I really don't know.
I do you many of you are just fronting and hating, and either don't know what you're talking about, or are going out of your way to willfully simplify this scenario to a laughable extent, to prove the long-standing goal of "MDA is an idiot'.