New York Knicks - 2018 Draft
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His shot is unreal, either he's on a terrific got streak or he's Steph Curry w/o stepping one foot onto an NBA arena. Does he have a shot as the number 1 pick?
RunningJumper
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I don't watch college basketball, but wow, that is some lethal shooting.
Long Insider article on Doncic. To tell you the truth the guy that has the skill set to go no. 1 in the draft is Trae Young if he's the real deal and not just on a hot streak, the emphasis on 3 pt shooting and ball movement in todays NBA make him high value. Now all they have to figure out is he Markelle or Steph in the long term.
Doncic proving he's human
Doncic proving he's human
Eighteen-year-old Slovenian wunderkind Luka Doncic is producing at unprecedented levels through 33 EuroLeague and ACB games for Real Madrid. He's on pace to be named the youngest EuroLeague MVP, and it's easy to argue that he's the most accomplished European prospect ever.
Only a few months removed from a European Championship gold medal with Slovenia, Doncic has led a Real Madrid team without Sergio Llull and Anthony Randolph (five games played) to a fourth-place EuroLeague record by averaging a league-best 27.5 points per 40 minutes. Doncic is fresh off an ACB Player of the Month award for his performance through four games in December: 27.4 points, 9.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists per 40. Rarely have we seen a 6-foot-8, 228-pound perimeter player who can pull up from 30 feet comfortably and make every ball screen read, all while adding major value on the backboards as well.
Simply put, Doncic has had an incredible season. But with all that said, Real Madrid's golden boy showed some of his deficiencies when we evaluated him against a long, athletic Maccabi Tel Aviv team in Madrid on Jan. 5.Luka Doncic getting loose for tonight's game vs Maccabi Tel Aviv. The 18-year-old Real Madrid sensation and potential #1 pick is shooting 35.6% from 3 in EuroLeague play on 90 attempts. Doncic leads the league in PER (29.2), PTS per 40 (27.8), and wins shares (2.92). pic.twitter.com/GKPxwaIxtJIn fact, over the course of his past five EuroLeague games Doncic has had his struggles, at least relative to how he started the season. During that stretch Doncic is averaging 10.8 points, 4.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists in 20.4 minutes while shooting 53.3 percent from 2 and 21.7 percent from 3-point territory. While still impressive on a per-40-minute basis, it's a far cry from his season averages of 18.1/5.4/4.8 on 62.8 percent from 2 and 34.7 percent from 3.
- Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) January 5, 2018
More specifically we dove into how Doncic fared in two games against Maccabi, since their personnel is most representative of what he'll face in the NBA. Through two games against the Israeli powerhouse, Doncic has shot 8-of-24 from the field -- 5-of-12 from 2 and 3-of-12 from 3. He still managed to average 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 7.6 assists per 40 minutes in both games, but the concerns are more in the film than the numbers. Doncic struggled with the relentless ball pressure of NBA-sized guard DeAndre Kane (6-4?, 6-8 wingspan, 200 pounds), and the defensive range of hard-hedging, switching big men like Sixers stash Jonah Bolden (6-10?, 7-3 wingspan) and still-explosive 30-year-old Alex Tyus (6-8, 7-0 wingspan).
During the Jan. 5 game we attended, Doncic did suffer an apparent hand injury that he later returned from, and we don't want to put too much stock in one game that Real Madrid ended up winning quite handily. We've seen him shred defensive juggernauts such as Olympiacos for 33 points on 21 shots, and he has had a fair share of success against stout defenses. With that said, his shortcomings stood out most against Maccabi Tel Aviv than arguably any other team this season.
So what are those lingering question marks that scouts may have about Doncic as a potential No. 1 pick, and how did they show against Maccabi? Here's a deep dive into what we saw both in person and after rewatching on film. These are the main concerns that we, and NBA scouts, have had about Doncic since we first began evaluating him.
1. Lack of elite burst/wiggle
While his pull-up threat, positional size and ability to pick defenses apart without getting deep into the paint will squander a lot of the concerns, Doncic still looks a bit slow with the ball at times. He struggled against Maccabi's aggressive pick-and-roll coverages and doesn't quite have the elite burst or change-of-pace ability to collapse a set defense. Can he score efficiently versus switches? He benefits greatly from being able to play at his own pace with Real Madrid, and has the savvy to pick up a lot of cheap foul calls on his opponents. How will all of that translate to a faster-paced, more athletic NBA game?
Doncic comes alive with the ball in his hands, but does he have the juice to operate as a primary ball handler?
Kane did an excellent job of hounding Doncic in Madrid. Kane has the physical measurements of the type of player who will spend some time guarding Doncic at the NBA level.
Kane took Doncic out of his flow quite regularly with his ball pressure, forcing him to initiate offense from half court with his back to the action.
Because Doncic isn't a threat to size up his defender and beat him to spots, he usually needs a high rub screen to help him alleviate pressure. While this gives him space, it can also take Real Madrid out of its offense.
Doncic rarely turns the ball over against this type of ball pressure. He's smart and sure-handed with the ball, but it does limit the pace at which he can play in the half court. His lack of elite burst really shows up more than anything in ball-screen situations.
On one play, he was unable to beat Kane off the line, which allowed the defender to get over the screen. Doncic then had to kill his dribble and hit the big man releasing as a safety net. Because Kane made it so tough on him to initiate offense, Real Madrid wasn't into its first pass until 10 seconds into the shot clock.
When Doncic is able to use the screen effectively and break free, he's not much of a threat to get downhill and attack the big man. Although he can pull up or pick defenses apart as a passer, the fact that he's not a threat to put pressure on the rim against athletes makes him a more manageable cover.
Teams will really want to decipher how Doncic fares against switches from long athletes, as that's likely how defenses will try to neutralize him at the NBA level. Maccabi gave him a heavy dose of hedges and blitzes, but also had some success against switches.
When Tyus, an NBA-level athlete with solid dimensions, switched onto Doncic, he was unable to turn the corner and was forced into a step-back, long 2-pointer. While Doncic is scoring 0.95 points per possession after switches this season (per Synergy Sports) -- and we've seen him score after being switched on by Kristaps Porzingis at EuroBasket -- it's tough to live off of contested pullups with consistency at the NBA level, even for the league's best shooters.
A big reason for Doncic's dip in 3-point percentage is the fact that he's often forced to settle for deep looks like this either against switches or when checked by quicker guards/wings in late-clock situations.
He knows how to use a hang dribble, but he just doesn't quite have the juice to shift gears from potential pullup to blow-by when defended by NBA-level defensive guards like Kane.
The fact that Doncic does have the ability to hard plant into pullups going right or left when the guard fights over the screen does help him, as most of the time teams figure to defend him with "drop" coverages during the regular season.
Although he's an extremely efficient 2-point scorer, Doncic also figures to have an adjustment as a finisher versus length.
Doncic is crafty inside the paint, as he has a host of floaters and slow-down, one-foot runners that we've seen from some of the top Euro guards.
Doncic also gets to the free throw line at a high rate, given his level of athleticism. He has a knack for drawing contact, even baiting defenders into fouls well beyond the 3-point line.
It will be interesting to see how well some of his tricks translate to the NBA level.
His average functional athleticism affects him as a passer at times as well. His struggles turning the corner versus the big defender forces him to get dragged out well beyond the arc. This allows the tagging defenders more time to read his eyes and make a play.
What makes Doncic so effective still is his ability to dice up defenses without consistently breaking free. He uses his size and smarts to give it up quickly versus hard hedges or blitzes. He also uses his eyes and confidence delivering the ball from different angles to manipulate the weakside defenders and find the soft spots.
Even if he isn't a threat to get by the big man defender out of pick-and-roll, he finds passing lanes to deliver the ball and is precise with his execution.
Doncic's subpar zip with the ball is far from a deal-breaker. He has been this effective and efficient at the EuroLeague level without being an elite athlete, and much of that success should continue at the NBA level. How many NBA team use hard-hedge pick-and-roll coverages, and how many defenders hound opponents full court like Kane did, especially on a random Tuesday game halfway through the season? Guards like Devin Booker and even CJ McCollum weren't overly explosive with the ball at the collegiate level, but their positional size, footwork and ability to shoot off the dribble and pass have made them dynamic ball-screen players.
Doncic already ranks in the 93rd percentile in ball-screen scoring at age 18, posting 158 points on 146 possessions, according to Synergy Sports Technology. He has been even better as a pick-and-roll facilitator, as his ball-screen passes generate 1.41 points per possession, good for 96th percentile. He's too smart, skilled and big to not be an effective pick-and-roll player in the NBA. If you put him at Oklahoma with the type of freedom a guy like Trae Young has, Doncic might be considered the runaway No. 1 pick right now.
But the question that's most prevalent: Can he operate as a primary ball handler like he does with Real Madrid? His so-so burst and struggles against athletic teams like Maccabi don't figure to improve with age, suggesting that he's best-suited with a dynamic ball handler next to him who can knife through the defense with regularity.
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Even though teams may not hound Doncic on a random midseason game, they have a blueprint for how to slow him late in fourth quarters when the floor shrinks. It's also fair to wonder: If Doncic moves like this at age 18, how will he move at age 25 or 26? What eases the blow from his lack of functional athleticism is his ability to impact the game off the ball as a spot shooter who can attack the gaps, which will allow his future NBA team to get more creative with its lineups.
Source: NBA prospects denied by G League
Several first-round prospects for the 2018 NBA draft have been told they are ineligible to play for the G League after inquiring about playing this season, a league source told ESPN.
Slovenian national team comrade and mentor Goran Dragic gave us his take on Doncic's position, and role, at the NBA level in an exclusive interview this summer at EuroBasket:
"That's what I cannot figure out for myself, too," Dragic said. "He got a great instinct to be a point guard but there's the quickness factor. I think position 2, he can play that. Like [James] Harden. Not the same exact game but that type of position playing with or without the ball.
"It's really hard to explain, even in practice, Luka doesn't look fast but he is fast. I don't know to describe it, maybe because of his size he looks slow, but he is not slow. OK, he's not super quick, but he has that first step that if he gets the angle on you, it's really tough to defend him. He really uses his body well. I think in the NBA maybe it's going to be easier for him, especially on offense, because there aren't so many guys in the paint. Three-second rule and everything. He's going to have more space in the offense, to create for his shot, for somebody else, and I'm looking forward to seeing that."
Concerns about shot creation and burst aside, Doncic is the best pure basketball player in the draft, regardless of upside, and his versatility will make him a dangerous offensive player regardless of some shortcomings.
2. Does he have any two-way value?
NBA teams will continue to question who Doncic guards at the NBA level. He has the size of a small forward, but functions more as a 1-2 on the offensive end. He's a bit hunched in his stance and not overly long or quick-twitch, yet he's competitive with instincts.
More bulky than elusive, Doncic got chipped off on a few screens before Kane squared him up in the middle of the floor. Kane beat him off the bounce with relative ease to finish at the rim.
Doncic has his struggles getting through multiple ball screens and doesn't quite have the recovery range or speed to cover ground and make a play, since he's more strong than wiry.
He figures to struggle with point guards and quicker combo guards, and he doesn't project as a wing defender against the Paul Georges and Kawhi Leonards of the NBA. Doncic's best defensive position long term may be as a small-ball 4, like Joe Johnson (with whom he has similar measurement). He plays with effort, but he has had his struggles against combo-forward types like Deshaun Thomas in their first meeting.
If Doncic struggles with Kane and Thomas, there aren't a whole lot of players in between where he matchups up favorably. With that said, Doncic projects as a sound system defender who adds value as a rebounder and makes plays off the ball. He's competitive with a motor, which helps make up for his subpar elusiveness.
Continuing to improve his body and key in on technique will allow Doncic to maximize his defensive potential, and the fact that he's competitive and smart with size will certainly help.
3. Emotional outbursts
Doncic has had some less-than-favorable moments with his body language, not always reacting to adversity with as much poise as you'd hope. While his passion for the game and vigor are clear positives, he has had some bouts of pouting in the past that teams will likely do a bit more digging on, and it showed at times against Maccabi.
"His father [retired basketball player Sasa Doncic] was more like me, more of a temper, gets mad quickly," Dragic said back in the summer. "Luka is so calm. I think that's just in him. I think he's battling with the pressure so well, especially at this age. We need to understand he's only 18."
While calm on the floor at times, as Dragic described, Doncic has lost his cool a bit more as of late when hit with adversity. He was ejected after six minutes of play against Valencia in December, and kicked the tunnel a few times on his way out for good measure. In a forgettable game against Finland (3-for-10 with 8 points) with the national team, he also beat up a chair or two on the bench, sulking when things didn't go his way. We saw some of the same against Maccabi. While this is partly a product of developing in Spain, where ref-complaining is commonplace, NBA teams will certainly want to dig a little deeper into some of the emotional episodes.
As an 18-year-old mega-star in a city like Madrid, there are no shortage of distractions. It will be important for Doncic not buy into his own hype and to take care of his body, as he's not naturally the most gifted athlete. As we've seen with international stars in the past, the NBA life can eat you alive if you're not well-prepared for it, which is something Dragic has warned Doncic about.
"It's a different lifestyle over there. He needs to be careful of that," Dragic said, shortly after praising Doncic's work ethic and no-fear mentality. "We're coming from Europe. It's a different situation here than in the States."
Despite some of his shortcomings, Doncic currently remains No. 1 on our top 100 rankings and 2018 mock draft, and poking too many holes in his game given the NBA's emphasis on pass-dribble-shoot basketball could cause teams to miss on a special talent. A few down games in the middle of an otherwise remarkable season shouldn't carry too much weight in the grand scheme of things. But as we're quickly learning with Markelle Fultz, when you're evaluating the potential No. 1 overall pick, you can never ask too many questions, and Doncic reminded us briefly in Madrid that he is indeed human, and that it's clearly not a one-horse race at the top.
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mafra
Legend
Interesting how this draft is shaping up.... there isn?t a clear-cut favorite, and while there appears to be a bunch of solid prospects.... the lack of a clear-cut guy probably means there isn?t a franchise stud that?ll be available.
Still, it seems like there?s a bunch of potential all-stars. I think you?re golden if you have a top 6 pick. After that, there?s gonna be some talent... just choose wisely
Still, it seems like there?s a bunch of potential all-stars. I think you?re golden if you have a top 6 pick. After that, there?s gonna be some talent... just choose wisely
There doesn't have to be a clear cut #1 in order for there to be a STUD it's not a mutually exclusive thing. Or thinking there really only is 1 and building your draft board accordingly. This is exactly what could lead to a colossal mistake by teams picking early. Hence Philly thinking Fultz was a clear #1 and trading up from 3 to grab him, instead of staying where they were. Not working out guys lower thinking they're not worthy of being drafted as high. They could've had a STUD in Mitchell
There are probably 2-3 potential franchise guys in this draft...which is par for course. We have one supposedly right or not? If a clear cut emerges does that mean we should only look for the solid All-Star prospect? At the end of the day it's up to every team to do their homework. Doncic is the truth, just because he shows emotion and lacks some athleticism means absolutely nothing to me. Curry, Nash, Stockton, Kidd, Payton, Duncan Dirk, Pierce, were not ultra athletic prospects so miss me with that logic too.
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Here's what I know for an absolute fact if we had 32 losses currently. No way would any Knick fan look at this draft as producing potentially subpar to decent talent. Nope we'd be all over the prospects like white on rice. Because we're not quite in the thick of the mix doesn't mean we have to be suspicious of the draft. Matter of fact we always want the draft to be as deep as possible no matter where we're picking for hopes of getting a decent prospect and for leverage purposes.
Historically what we know about the draft, although one team's opinion may be low of it...others aren't. So if we would sink to the bottom of our conference/league record wise with a potential Top 5 pick in our grasp, it won't matter the talent coming in...some team will want what we have thus it becomes a MAJOR bargaining chip.
Historically what we know about the draft, although one team's opinion may be low of it...others aren't. So if we would sink to the bottom of our conference/league record wise with a potential Top 5 pick in our grasp, it won't matter the talent coming in...some team will want what we have thus it becomes a MAJOR bargaining chip.
mafra
Legend
Maybe I didn?t explain myself... there?s no Magic, Bird, Ewing, Shaq, LeBron... the type of prospect that was a no doubt about it generational talent you had to have.
Kyrie was the top pick and a good prospect but nobody saw this.... same with KD, Kobe, MJ (although these 3 not #1 picks; but my JV b-ball coach told me at a bar one night that this HS kid in Phillly was gonna be a great HOF player).
This draft doesn?t have what some say draft me first! But there does appear to be Possibly a Kyrie, KD, and a Towns type.
I love this draft. I would happily trade next years first rounde to ensure we had a top 5 pick. But, like last year, tough to call who to take first.
Kyrie was the top pick and a good prospect but nobody saw this.... same with KD, Kobe, MJ (although these 3 not #1 picks; but my JV b-ball coach told me at a bar one night that this HS kid in Phillly was gonna be a great HOF player).
This draft doesn?t have what some say draft me first! But there does appear to be Possibly a Kyrie, KD, and a Towns type.
I love this draft. I would happily trade next years first rounde to ensure we had a top 5 pick. But, like last year, tough to call who to take first.
I think it?s harder now for guys to look like franchise changers out of the draft given that the draft is now all 19 and 20 year olds in the early 1st round. I know Lebron came straight from high school, but he is from another planet. I remember Ewing was almost 23 when the Knicks drafted him.
Forget the 2018 draft, when do we start tanking for Zion Williamson in the 2019 draft? :crossfingers:
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/...five-star-zion-williamson-previews-commitment
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/...five-star-zion-williamson-previews-commitment
mafra
Legend
Speaking of the 2019 draft:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...ruit-zion-williamson-commits-duke-blue-devils
Duke has now signed the nations #1, 2, 3, and 10 recruits.
While Williamson's dunking ability and jaw-dropping athleticism are his best attributes, he's more than that. The 6-foot-6, 275-pound power forward is built like a tight end, but he combines that strength and physicality with quick feet and adept passing ability.
Zion Williamson is still at his best in transition, though, and will need to get in better shape and improve his shooting ability to dominate at the next level.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...ruit-zion-williamson-commits-duke-blue-devils
Duke has now signed the nations #1, 2, 3, and 10 recruits.
While Williamson's dunking ability and jaw-dropping athleticism are his best attributes, he's more than that. The 6-foot-6, 275-pound power forward is built like a tight end, but he combines that strength and physicality with quick feet and adept passing ability.
Zion Williamson is still at his best in transition, though, and will need to get in better shape and improve his shooting ability to dominate at the next level.
I agree this is a lay down...but I do feel we're starting to warm up to tanking. #kporzee did mouth off about his being an All-Star and all about the players knowing he is, yet he's being hid like a Sofftee. That's okay lock another L up
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mafra
Legend
The NBA Draft may still be six months away, but that isn't stopping Knicks C Willy Hernangomez from stating his desire to join forces with former teammate Luka Doncic.
Hernangomez, 23, was effusive in his praise for the 18-year-old guard, who he played alongside in 2015-16 with Real Madrid in the Liga ACB in Spain.
"I played with him -- he's really a talented guy,'' Hernangomez said. "I think people in The States don't understand how difficult it is to play in European League when you're [18] years old and playing against 30-year-olds and be the best. Most of the players in college won't do as well as he is doing in Europe. For him, he's a top three in the draft this year. He's my friend. I have a great relationship with him."
A native of Slovenia, Doncic is averaging 14.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game with Real Madrid. He's projected to be a lottery pick in the 2018 draft which does not bode well for the Knicks, who have fallen to a 21-27 record after a 17-14 start. However, their early-season success makes landing a top-5 pick unlikely.
Hernangomez compared his former teammate to another European star, former Net Drazen Petrovic, who was killed in a car accident in 1993.
[Doncic] is a 2, 3, he can play point guard and he's really smart, talented,'' Hernangomez said. "He can shoot. He will really improve because he's a kid. If you know Petrovic, he was amazing. He's kind of a player like him. All the European guys in the NBA are excited for him to play here.''
There is also the matter of Hernangomez's future with the Knicks, which isn't as clear as it was following a strong rookie season in 2016-17. A second-round pick by the Sixers in 2015, Hernangomez's rights were traded to the Knicks, with whom he eventually signed in July 2016. He averaged 8.2 points and 7 rebounds in 18.4 minutes per game last season, earning a spot on the NBA All-Rookie First Team. However, the Spaniard has fallen out of coach Jeff Hornacek's rotation this season, averaging under 10 minutes per game while appearing in only 21 of the Knicks' 48 contests.
"I don't know what will happen,'' Hernangomez said about his future. "As I've said a couple of times, I'm 23. I'm hungry. I want to play. Whatever happens, I'm ready for it."
Hernangomez, 23, was effusive in his praise for the 18-year-old guard, who he played alongside in 2015-16 with Real Madrid in the Liga ACB in Spain.
"I played with him -- he's really a talented guy,'' Hernangomez said. "I think people in The States don't understand how difficult it is to play in European League when you're [18] years old and playing against 30-year-olds and be the best. Most of the players in college won't do as well as he is doing in Europe. For him, he's a top three in the draft this year. He's my friend. I have a great relationship with him."
A native of Slovenia, Doncic is averaging 14.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game with Real Madrid. He's projected to be a lottery pick in the 2018 draft which does not bode well for the Knicks, who have fallen to a 21-27 record after a 17-14 start. However, their early-season success makes landing a top-5 pick unlikely.
Hernangomez compared his former teammate to another European star, former Net Drazen Petrovic, who was killed in a car accident in 1993.
[Doncic] is a 2, 3, he can play point guard and he's really smart, talented,'' Hernangomez said. "He can shoot. He will really improve because he's a kid. If you know Petrovic, he was amazing. He's kind of a player like him. All the European guys in the NBA are excited for him to play here.''
There is also the matter of Hernangomez's future with the Knicks, which isn't as clear as it was following a strong rookie season in 2016-17. A second-round pick by the Sixers in 2015, Hernangomez's rights were traded to the Knicks, with whom he eventually signed in July 2016. He averaged 8.2 points and 7 rebounds in 18.4 minutes per game last season, earning a spot on the NBA All-Rookie First Team. However, the Spaniard has fallen out of coach Jeff Hornacek's rotation this season, averaging under 10 minutes per game while appearing in only 21 of the Knicks' 48 contests.
"I don't know what will happen,'' Hernangomez said about his future. "As I've said a couple of times, I'm 23. I'm hungry. I want to play. Whatever happens, I'm ready for it."