Ray Felton: X Factor. Now, then, playoffs. + Video Highlights

[Crazy⑧s]

Ready Up Raymond

A look at the transition of Felton's game this season, the associated numbers, and the role he'll play as X Factor for the Knicks in the playoffs.




As the 2012-2013 playoffs loom for our beloved Knickerbockers, one player I'll personally have under the microscope is Raymond Felton. Hardly a point guard whose name you'll hear mentioned in the same breath as CP3, Westbrook and Rondo, but the role that the Knicks' talented and (at times) unpredictable PG will play in the postseason is integral to the Knicks and their season's aspirations.

Felton's role has gone through a real metamorphosis in the last 40 games of the season, now playing starting SG with Prigioni has reshaped the Knicks' offensive approach, and Ray's facilitating game has taken a step back as he plays off the ball and waits for his chance to create offensively.

A look back at the beginning of the 12-13 campaign.

After a solid start to this almost finished season, Felton broke out and played effectively as the Knicks' main facilitator, along with providing a scoring threat and playing decent, disruptive defence as an individual, and as a team defender.

He and Woodson share an understanding in the pursuit of their goals, and Raymond has showed on more than one occasion that he's an advocate of Woodson's personality and approach.

He clicked instantly with Tyson Chandler, and his offence maintained continuity, aggression, penetration and ball movement, and all round his decision making was widely regarded as suitable/befitting for the Knicks' roster.

Most notable at the start of the 12-13 season, was his stand out performance against the San Antonio Spurs on April 15th last year, dropping 25 points on a helpless Tony Parker. Parker and the Spurs had no answer for his strength and quickness, and Felton had reestablished himself as a player that cannot be overlooked defensively, after an abysmal prior season in Portland.

 

[Crazy⑧s]

On Xmas day 2012, Felton was the first of many Knicks to fall to injury. A fractured right pinkie finger sidelined the stout PG for just in excess of 4 weeks, and the team struggled noticeably (though not consistently) in his absence.

​

Since then, Raymond Felton's role has been redefined.


Felton: then and now.


39 games after sitting out 4 weeks, let's compare Raymond's statistics from before and after his injury.


November 2 through Xmas day last year.


28 games


33.7 mpg
15.8 ppg (39.6% FG's, 35.3% 3-PT FG's, 77.6% FT's)
2.9 rpg
6.3 apg
1.2 spg


From January 26 through April 12 this year.


39 games


34.3 mpg
12.7 ppg (46.0% FG's, 36.2% 3-PT FG's, 79.7% FT's)
2.8 rpg
4.9 apg
1.5 spg

 

[Crazy⑧s]

March in particular was the time in which Raymond returned to confidence and consistency. Whilst remaining aggressive, Felton's improved shot selection and form quickly became a boon for the NYK, reflected by a 6.4% increase in 2 point FG%, and a 1% increase in 3 point FG%. Though a mere 1% is not a major uptick, 36% from beyond the arc is a reliable stat, and Felton has forced defences to respect his combination of shooting and penetration/penetration and kick. The exceptional play of Smith and Anthony of late has also given Raymond room and opportunity to contribute off the ball.

 

[Crazy⑧s]

Whether or not Felton's new approach - the shot selection especially - is by design, one thing that can't be understated is his comparable lack of a 2 man game with Tyson Chandler. Early in the season, these 2 were tearing apart offences on the P&R, and come playoff time the Knicks will need that added offensive fire power and resulting rotation/spacing to broaden their effectiveness, their versatility, and to give headaches to opposing defences, thwarting predictability. Miami, in particular, can not defend a Chandler - Felton threat.

Defensive concerns regarding Felton's play for the Knicks at point guard.


This season, the comparative PPG between Felton and his immediate opponent per 48 minutes is 15.0 to 19.3 in favour of Felton's immediate opponent. Those who have watched every game will know full well that the Knicks have suffered at the hands of opponent point guards more so than anywhere else. The P&R seems to be his most obvious defensive flaw.


Woodson's solution to this issue was to employ Prigioni as the starting point guard for his defensive savvy, and since then opponents' output from the point position has dropped. Most noticeably, opponent 3 point shooting has dropped an impressive 4.2%, from 36.7 to 32.5.

As Prigioni has played saviour to the Knicks most poorly defended position, where does this leave Felton? Moving to the 2 spot and often waiting in the wings of the offence, Felton's quickness, strength and penetration have not been decreased.

But how does this new approach translate when the Knicks potentially come to face the likes of Paul George and Dwayne Wade in the playoffs?

 

[Crazy⑧s]

Where does this leave Felton?

​

Though he's a well balanced mix of speed, stamina, stoutness and strength, Felton gives up 3 inches and 15 pounds to Wade, and 7 inches and 16 pounds to George. These are clearly match ups for Shumpert and Smith that can match size and length well enough against these 2 harrowing opponents that play above the rim.


Another statistic that belittles Ray's defence, is effective field goal percentage. Ray's direct opponent all season thus far has averaged .517 EFG%, to Ray's .465, in 1 less shot attempt on average per game. Again, these numbers come for the vast majority against PGs, not shooting guards. The team will have to rely heavily on a 5 man effort and cognitive sets if Felton is to start at the 2 spot against dominant SGs.

​

Another statistic worth noting is that Felton's best team numbers (as part of a 5 man unit) come alongside Jason Kidd in the backcourt, along with Smith, Anthony and Tyson Chandler. This unit has spent a total of 234 accumulative minutes together, and the statistics speak for themselves. With this as the predominant lineup, the Knicks wan percentage is .710, the Knicks having put together a 23-9 record when these 5 are the main feature. Of course, these numbers do not reflect the current play of the Knicks, who are lead offensively by Smith and Anthony primarily. But it shows the transitions the team has been through, and the effect it's had on role players like Ray.

Clearly Felton's in good physical condition currently, and he has carved himself a nich? playing off the ball alongside Prigioni. Felton and Prigioni in 200 minutes of action over the first 8 games of Prigoni's inception to the starting 5 averaged a +19.2 net per 100 possessions. Since then, Carmelo Anthony and JR Smith have been on their amazing scoring tears, and Pablo and Raymond have been less influential in the wake of their outbursts, evidenced by Ray's dip in assists from 6.3 APG to 4.9 APG.

​

This is the base point of my long windedness: Role players, contributors, facilitators; those integral cogs that help push teams past their playoff adversaries and closer to the Conference Finals, and, hopefully in the case of the Knicks, the NBA finals.

But now, as the Knicks lay in wait of their first round opponent, is Ray's current state of play going to be enough to match the expectations of the Knicks and their hoops mad fans? Does his current success in his new role translate to playoff basketball? Will a tandem point guard back-court play a role in mismatching bigger back-court opponents? Will Ray's minutes be diminished in place of Smith and Shumpert as defence takes priority as it does in the postseason?

That's a lot of questions.

Without question, however, Ray is one of the most integral pieces to the Knicks' success. In my opinion, he outweighs all other Knickerbockers in importance, when considering who is the standout Knicks' X Factor.
One final statistic: Games in which the NYK lose, Felton's field-goal percentage drops to .385 and his 3 point shooting drops to a staggering .261

Again, comparing his numbers in wins and losses, Ray tallies a +16.4 net rating in when the Knicks are victorious, as opposed to a worrying -15 in losses. His assist-to-turnover ratio is nearly cut in half from wins to losses.




Felton Highlights throughout April.

Raymond Felton is the Knicks' postseason X Factor.


⑧

 

[tiger0330]

Excellent post. I gather since you didn't mention a link for this that it's your analysis. Well done Crazy8s deserving of a BS in Feltonology. BS meaning Bachelors in Science and not bulls**t lol.

I respect Felton and his contributions to that 3 guard rotation that I have no idea how we are managing to dominate the league with but it's working and I hope it carries into the playoffs. Lot of skepticism about the small ball 3 point centric offense we are running going into the playoffs with most pundits saying you have to play a 1/2 court aggressive interior game in the playoffs because you don't want to depend on shooting over 40% from 3 to win your games.

 

[Crazy⑧s]

Yeah, it's my second article. I did another one on Pablo, as well.

All my videos too! It was a rainy f*cker of a day yesterday, so I wrote a Knicks article.

 

[metrocard]

I just wished he worked better on defense. He's excellent at penetrating and getting us points.

 

[New New York]

Utterly Brilliant Thread Mr. Crazy!

I have said this a thousand times, Raymond is a steady PG and that's all we need.

Raymond is the equivalent of a middle Tier QB who has a dominate Running Back (Melo) very solid WRs (our shooters) and a Great O Line (Tyson, KMart), in this instance you do not need a superstar QB just one who can read defenses and orchestrate the offense

X Factor: His penetration is the unsung hero of the season. When he breaks down a team's D he is so dangerous because he can kick it out, throw the lob, or drop that little floater in the lane...he's even pulling up and hitting that little mid range shot which presents so much of a problem


His Defense; as frustrated as anyone with the D. But, Raymond is a better team defender than people give credit for! He gets beat one on one because physically he does not have the tools to defend the quality of PG's that are in the league today. But, Raymond is an excellent help and trap defender.

But there are 2 Defenses plays that stand out to me this year...Remember his stop on Curry? That was pretty much the play of the game that helped us get a win despite Curry's amazing performance. Now think about The Bucks game, Mil. was looking to make a come back against us and then Raymond shows amazing ball denial on Jennings thus forcing a Turnover and then Kidd nails a half court shot which just demoralized The Bucks.

 

[DrB]

Fantastic THREAD. Your statistics and writing ability makes this thread superb. KUDO's.

 

[DrB]

INCREDIBLE STATISTICS and a NOVAK Question

I don't know about other members but I DVR every game and I disect what's happening off the ball; whose boxing out and whose not; whose allowing easy points in the paint in the first quarter as they worry about their personal fouls. The defense of Novak in the Cavaliers game made me puke and then he plays hard defense against Indiana. Love to see a statistical thread on Novak who unlike Ray Allen or REGGIE "THE 3 "MILLER never seems to hit that 3 at crunch time. I wonder if the statistical experts here could weigh in on this and the bigger question..DO WE WANT TO TRADE NOVAK AND HIS 4 MILLION DOLLAR CONTRACT or make peace with that fact that we will tolerate his soft defense because of his 3 point shooting?

 

[groundpilot]

What a great thread. Your contribution to this forum is greatly appreciated.

 

[Weissenberg]

@Crazy: what a briliant and insightful analysis. Hands down.

 

[nyk_nyk]

Utterly Brilliant Thread Mr. Crazy!

I have said this a thousand times, Raymond is a steady PG and that's all we need.

Raymond is the equivalent of a middle Tier QB who has a dominate Running Back (Melo) very solid WRs (our shooters) and a Great O Line (Tyson, KMart), in this instance you do not need a superstar QB just one who can read defenses and orchestrate the offense

X Factor: His penetration is the unsung hero of the season. When he breaks down a team's D he is so dangerous because he can kick it out, throw the lob, or drop that little floater in the lane...he's even pulling up and hitting that little mid range shot which presents so much of a problem


His Defense; as frustrated as anyone with the D. But, Raymond is a better team defender than people give credit for! He gets beat one on one because physically he does not have the tools to defend the quality of PG's that are in the league today. But, Raymond is an excellent help and trap defender.

But there are 2 Defenses plays that stand out to me this year...Remember his stop on Curry? That was pretty much the play of the game that helped us get a win despite Curry's amazing performance. Now think about The Bucks game, Mil. was looking to make a come back against us and then Raymond shows amazing ball denial on Jennings thus forcing a Turnover and then Kidd nails a half court shot which just demoralized The Bucks.

This has always been my stance on Felton. He's a solid pg and good enough to get things done when needed. No he isn't a top 10 or even 15 pg in the league but he understands this system and Woodson trusts him. I'm fine with that.

 

[Crazy⑧s]

Utterly Brilliant Thread Mr. Crazy!

I have said this a thousand times, Raymond is a steady PG and that's all we need.

Raymond is the equivalent of a middle Tier QB who has a dominate Running Back (Melo) very solid WRs (our shooters) and a Great O Line (Tyson, KMart), in this instance you do not need a superstar QB just one who can read defenses and orchestrate the offense

X Factor: His penetration is the unsung hero of the season. When he breaks down a team's D he is so dangerous because he can kick it out, throw the lob, or drop that little floater in the lane...he's even pulling up and hitting that little mid range shot which presents so much of a problem


His Defense; as frustrated as anyone with the D. But, Raymond is a better team defender than people give credit for! He gets beat one on one because physically he does not have the tools to defend the quality of PG's that are in the league today. But, Raymond is an excellent help and trap defender.

But there are 2 Defenses plays that stand out to me this year...Remember his stop on Curry? That was pretty much the play of the game that helped us get a win despite Curry's amazing performance. Now think about The Bucks game, Mil. was looking to make a come back against us and then Raymond shows amazing ball denial on Jennings thus forcing a Turnover and then Kidd nails a half court shot which just demoralized The Bucks.

Top notch reply. Good to see a thinking man's stance. eace:

 

[Kidd Karma]

Good stuff. Looks like Felton is what Jason Terry was during the Mavs 2011 run. A hot Jet = Mavs win. A hot Felton = Knicks win.

Kidd is really blueprinting the 2011 Mavs on the 2013 Kncks.