Gary Neal has competition for becoming the most famous undrafted rookie of the 2010-11 season. For Timofey Mozgov, it hasn't come with actual production as much as the slivers of potential he has shown and now the fight between the Knicks and Nuggets over his inclusion in the Carmelo Anthony trade.
Mozgov has a soft touch with B+ hands, sneaky quick feet and is naturally gifted as a shotblocker. He also very clearly cares and is committed to improve, which is somewhat rare for big men.
I wouldn't bet my life on it, but he is absolutely capable of being an above average starting center. His ceiling is probably around the eighth or ninth best center in the NBA.
Let's first look at Mozgov from a statistical and age perspective.
Mozgov is already halfway to 25 and just a few months younger than Dwight Howard, so his room for meaningful development is limited. But centers are of course more capable of improvement at this stage in their career; even look at what Kwame Brown has done this season at 28.
Mozgov has played much better basketball over the past few weeks with his minutes increasing. In February, Mozgov has a FIC40 of 13.2 compared to 6.7 in November and 2.5 in December when he was playing limited minutes.
Mozgov's rebound rate of 12.8 is very ordinary, but his block percentage of 3.6 puts him in the discussion of the top-25 in the NBA though not really close to the Serge Ibaka type of rate.
He is shooting 46.4% from the floor, which is unquestionably a low number for a player over seven feet tall who is not a primary option for either his own team or for opponents to defend.
Looking closer at Mozgov from a pure scouting perspective, he has a high motor and is very active in his attempts to fight for position, whether it is for rebounds or in offensive sets. His rebounds are as much a product of those elements as it is the way he uses his length.
On the offensive end, Mozgov's greatest asset is clearly in creating second chance points.
Mozgov is a much more impressive rebounder on the offensive end, where he can use his craftiness and anticipation to better effect. He is able to score a healthy percentage of his points on second chance opportunities, which is a huge advantage for a team that plays at a fast rate and has a lot of long rebounds due to the frequent three-point attempts. Mozgov also does a good job in keeping the ball high on put backs.
When Mozgov has a clear space, he's very quick and strong to the rim and is shows good agility and athleticism in the air. He is a bit of a bull in a china shop, however, and the limitations of that agility become clear when he is forced into lateral improvisation.
He sets a big screen and is a clear asset in both rolling to the bucket and also popping for a jumper out to 18 feet. Mozgov has consistent form on his jumper and a high release point. An open 15-footer for Mozgov is a shot his team should be plenty comfortable in taking. He will make that shot at an efficient clip and the threat of him hitting that shot brings out his defender from the paint and that creates more space for Amar'e Stoudemire.
Mozgov has an excellent understanding of spacing and plays the game at a high IQ level.
In the post offensively, Mozgov has had very few opportunities and it is easy to see why. He doesn't have a reliable go-to move and looks badly out of sorts. The fluidity he shows in other parts of his offensive game completely disappear in the post and he lacks anything resembling touch.
Defensively, Mosgov has been generally good and seems to have more success away from the low post. This is a carryover from what he does well offensively.
Even though he has been a general liability in the post, Mozgov does do an effective job in making himself a big obstacle to either get around or score over. He does a better job in going straight up to avoid fouls than one would think from his foul rate of six per 36 minutes.
Two things he allows to happen that work against his ability to be a better defender in the post is allowing his man to catch the ball too close to the basket and then offering little resistance against the backdown. He either needs to do a better job at becoming an immovable object, or learn how to do the flop against a hard bump.
His effort level is high and does a good job of maintaing his vision while on the weak side.
Mozgov also does a better job in contesting shooters and against the pick and roll.
Mozgov is a center that any team would want on their team because he's capable of giving 15 to 30 quality minutes per night. But he's ultimately not worth becoming a deal-breaker for either side in the Anthony trade.
http://basketball.******.com/article...Timofey_Mozgov
